NEW NFIB SURVEY: Small Business Optimism Takes a Small Step Back as Uncertainty Eases in October
Index declines slightly but remains just above 52-year average, Uncertainty Index fell 12 points

PIERRE, SD (Nov. 14, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest reading of this year.

“Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”

“The NFIB report shows small business owners’ primary issues are inflation and staffing shortages,” said NFIB South Dakota State Director Jason Glodt. “South Dakota must prioritize effective solutions to keep small businesses open and investing in our communities.”

In conjunction with the October report, NFIB is also debuting a new podcast: “Small Business by the Numbers” – this is the NFIB Research Center’s new podcast, where we discuss everything related to the small business economy. Guests and host Holly Wade, the Executive Director of the NFIB Research Center, will discuss the data, stories, and economic conditions affecting small businesses nationwide. Listen to the intro episode here.

Key findings include:

• Thirty-two percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged for the second consecutive month. Before August, the last time unfilled job openings hit 32% was in December 2020.
• In October, 27% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021. Labor quality ranked as the top problem and was 11 points higher than taxes, which ranked second.
• A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 6 points from September.
• The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index.
• In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September).
• The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 3 points to a net negative 6% (seasonally adjusted). Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks (unchanged), and 15% reported reductions (up 3 points).
• In October, 60% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, down 4 points from September.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 3 points from September to a net 20% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since April but remaining above the historical average of net 4%.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in October, unchanged for the second consecutive month. Before August, the last time unfilled job openings hit 32% was in December 2020. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire in October, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 15% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 1 point from September. This marks the first decline since hiring plans started to increase in May 2025.

Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners fell by 3 points from September to 8%. Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% reported raising compensation, down 5 points from September. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, unchanged from September.

Fifty-five percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down 1 point from September. Of those making expenditures, 36% reported spending on new equipment, 22% acquired vehicles, and 14% improved or expanded facilities. Thirteen percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 3% acquired new buildings or land for expansion. Twenty-three percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, up 2 points from September.

A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 6 points from September. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 2 points from September to a net 6% (seasonally adjusted).

The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 3 points to a net negative 6%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks, and 15% reported reductions. A net negative 4% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in October, up 3 points from September’s largest monthly decline in the survey’s history. A net negative 2% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, down 3 points from September.

In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Despite the decline, price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure.

Unadjusted, 31% reported higher average prices (down 2 points), and 12% reported lower average selling prices (up 2 points). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September).

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 9% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s), and 9% cited labor costs. Among owners reporting higher profits, 53% cited sales volume,17% cited usual seasonal change, and 11% cited higher selling prices.

A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 2 points from September’s highest reading of this year. In October, a net 1% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 6 points from September. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.7% in October, down 0.1 points from September. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from September.

In October, owners’ overall assessment of their business’ health declined from the previous month as more owners reported it as “fair” than “good”. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 12% reported it as excellent (up 1 point), and 51% reported it as good (down 6 points). Thirty-three percent reported the health of their business as fair (up 6 points), and 4% reported it as poor (unchanged).

The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 3 points from September to a net 20% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since April but remaining above the historical average of net 4%.

In October, 13% (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up 2 points from September. Compared to readings during economic expansions, this is a relatively weak reading.

Twenty-seven percent of small business owners reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and ranking as the top problem. The percent of small business owners reporting labor costs as their single most important problem fell 3 points to 8%.

Twelve percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down 2 points from September.

The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 10%.

In October, 8% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, unchanged from September. Two percent reported that financing and interest rates was their top business problem in October, down 2 points from September.

Five percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, unchanged from September.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in October 2025.

###

For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses, and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

The day before his fundraiser in Pierre, the PAC supporting Governor Larry Rhoden will be hosting a fundraiser at the arrowhead country club in Rapid City.

While there is no host list noted, the ask is $1000 per host and they are capping it at 100 hosts.

You can contact the Strong Safe and Free political action committee if you have an extra thousand dollars lying around.

SECRETARY OF STATE MONAE JOHNSON RECOGNIZES PARTNERSHIP WITH DSU TO STRENGTHEN COUNTY CYBERSECURITY

PIERRE, S.D. — Secretary of State Monae L. Johnson today recognized the ongoing collaboration between the South Dakota Secretary of State’s Office, Dakota State University (DSU), and the SecureSD program, led by Mike Waldner, in strengthening cybersecurity practices across South Dakota’s counties.

Through this partnership, nearly 100% of South Dakota’s counties are now actively engaged in improving their cybersecurity posture—an important milestone in protecting election systems and local government networks from emerging digital threats.

“Cybersecurity is a cornerstone of election integrity and public trust,” said Secretary Johnson. “Our partnership with Dakota State University and Director of SecureSD, Mike Waldner has been instrumental in helping county officials identify vulnerabilities, implement safeguards, and ensure our systems remain secure and reliable.”

The SecureSD initiative, based at Dakota State University, provides hands-on technical assistance and training to counties and municipalities statewide. Through collaboration with the Secretary of State’s Office and the Division of Elections, SecureSD has delivered cybersecurity assessments, awareness training, and best-practice recommendations tailored to county-level election operations.

Mike Waldner, Director of SecureSD, commended the partnership’s progress. “With Secretary Johnson’s leadership, we’ve been able to reach nearly every county in South Dakota. Together, we’re ensuring that local governments have the knowledge and tools they need to safeguard voter data and maintain confidence in our democratic processes.”

The partnership will continue into 2026, focusing on training opportunities, technology enhancements, and proactive support for counties preparing for upcoming elections.

For more information visit: https://sdsos.gov/default.aspx

Jean Hunhoff Announces Candidacy for South Dakota State Senate, District 18

“When People Matter, Experience Matters.”

YANKTON, S.D. — Jean Hunhoff today announced her candidacy for the South Dakota State Senate Republican primary, pledging to bring her experience and practical leadership back to Pierre to serve the people of District 18.

“Leadership isn’t about headlines. It’s about people,” Hunhoff said. “I have always believed public service means listening first, working together, and doing what’s right for South Dakota families. That’s why I’m running for the State Senate because when people matter, experience matters.”

Rooted in the values of hard work, service, and community that define southeastern South Dakota, Jean has dedicated her life to caring for people and strengthening the region she calls home. A nurse and small business owner, she has spent her career helping others, and her years in local government and the legislature earned her a reputation for asking tough questions, managing budgets responsibly, and finding common sense solutions to complex challenges.
Hunhoff’s priorities reflect the conversations she’s had with people across Yankton and Clay Counties: parents, business owners, farmers, educators, and health-care professionals who want steady, practical leadership focused on results.

“This campaign is not about going back. It is about putting experience to work for South Dakotans once again,” Hunhoff said. “It is time to return to a kind of service that puts people ahead of politics and delivers real results for our communities.”

As a Republican candidate for District 18, Hunhoff said her focus will remain on strengthening families, supporting education, helping local businesses succeed, protecting access to health care, and ensuring that the next generation can build their future right here at home.

Hunhoff and her husband, Dan, raised their family in Yankton and continue to be active in community life.

###

Editor’s note – you can donate to Jean’s campaign to run for office at https://www.jeanhunhoff.com/donate

Johnson’s Statement on Ending the Government Shutdown

Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) released the following statement after voting again to fund the government and end the longest government shutdown in American history:

“This was the dumbest government shutdown in history,” said Johnson. “Unnecessary pain was inflicted on the American people, our economy, and our national security. I am grateful for the Democrats who were willing to partner with Republicans to open our government. I’ve been vocal in calling for the shutdown to end, and I introduced legislation that would prevent government shutdowns from ever happening again.”

###

I’ve managed to get my mitts on the fundraising announcement for the Larry Rhoden for Governor fundraiser in Pierre on Wednesday for November 19th.   Please note that Larry clearly indicates that  he’s running for Governor on this invite.

And as you might expect, there are a number of Department Secretaries and other top brass in state government who are noted as hosts who have a pecuniary interest in having their current boss return to the position once again in 2026. (It’s almost like their job depends on it):

50% of the host couples have at least one member of the household holding high position in state government under Governor Rhoden. Plus, there’s a few other assorted government officials not under the Governor’s control such as Commissioner of School & Lands Brock Greenfield, PUC Commissioner Gary Hanson, State Auditor Rich Sattgast, and new Deputy State Treasurer Mitch Krebs.

Stay tuned, as things are about to get more interesting!

From the Dakota Scout comes a story that an e-mailed invite has gone out for what is allegedly an announcement event out in Rapid City next week. (I’m guessing they must have forgotten my e-mail address – pp):

While Rhoden’s campaign will not confirm or deny that a decision has been made about the governor’s political future beyond 2026, multiple sources of The Dakota Scout have confirmed Rhoden will enter the race. His campaign on Tuesday also began circulating a digital invitation to a political event where he’s set to share his plans — a run for governor.

“Join Governor Larry Rhoden as he makes a special announcement about his plans to keep South Dakota strong, safe, and free,” reads the otherwise nondescript listing for the Nov. 18 event.

Read the entire story here.

Gov. Rhoden Now Accepting Applications for Parole Board

PIERRE, S.D. – Governor Larry Rhoden is accepting applications to fill a vacancy on the Board of Pardons and Paroles (Parole Board).

The vacancy was created when Parole Board member Ken Albers of Canton announced he would be ending his service following the November 2025 meeting. His term was scheduled to expire in January 2026.

The Parole Board meets for one week each month to recommend pardons and commutations to the Governor, conduct parole hearings, and take action on offender applications for parole. The Parole Board consists of nine members. The Governor, the Attorney General, and the South Dakota Supreme Court each appoint three members. Parole Board members must be residents of South Dakota.

The standard duration of appointments to the Parole Board is four years. Members are eligible for re-appointment. Appointments require the advice and consent of the state Senate.

Those who would like to be considered for an appointment to the Parole Board should submit a resume, cover letter, and letter of recommendation to Katie Hruska, General Counsel for the Governor’s Office, at katie.hruska@state.sd.us. Applications should be submitted by Friday, November 21, 2025.

###

In response to a Todd Epp story yesterday at the Dakota Scout story, where it was noted that the Sioux Falls School District reviewed the package of tax proposals being put forth by the legislature, House Majority Leader Scott Odenbach launched into a missive on social media which seems to indicate an agenda he may have planned for education during the next legislative session.

In the post, Odenbach ties property tax relief to an agenda which includes items such as consolidation of school districts, and the direct election of school superintendents:

Scott Odenbach for South Dakota House District 31

BECAUSE THAT’S WHERE ALL THE MONEY GETS SPENT
It’s time to tie proficiency test scores to incentives. (The test isn’t the problem.)
It’s time to reform capital outlay spending.
It’s time to look at consolidation of administration. And maybe direct election of superintendents, like sheriffs are.
It’s time to reform and/or automatically refer opt-out votes.
It’s time to disclose how much of your money is spent on status quo lobbyists like Large School Group, Associated School Boards of South Dakota, and others.
It’s time to break the money monopoly by giving parents more control with a good Education Savings Account program.
It’s time to better utilize virtual learning options for our rural families.
And more.
Do we want property tax relief or not?

Odenbach lays out an agenda which includes consolidation, electing school superintendents, learning by xbox (virtual learning), and measuring educators on the basis of their students.  It remains to be seen how many others in the Republican caucus will agree with the agenda being pushed by the majority leader.

Odenbach takes issue with how schools currently handle capital outlay. Not sure exactly what that entails? The South Dakota Department of Revenue created a white paper to explain what Capital Outlay funds are, and what they’re used for in July of this year:

Capital Outlay by Pat Powers

For the layman, this entails the funds for the purchase of real estate or equipment and is used for buying new or maintaining existing facilities, as well as for textbooks and costs to transport students.

It’s unclear what form “reform” would take, but it would likely entail cutting the use of capital outlay to pay for items such as textbooks. Which would leave schools having to look for the money elsewhere in their general funds.

Odenbach also notes items on his agenda such as going after school lobbyists, and one of his initiatives that had been quickly killed in the opening days of the last legislative session. If you recall, HB 1020 establishing education savings accounts, was opposed by Industry & Commerce, retailers, schools, school administrators, the Crow Creek tribe, homeschoolers, and a lot of others.  Yet, it appears that it’s on the agenda to come back.

In one of the biggest stretches he’s proposing, Odenbach strangely declares his agenda items of the “consolidation of administration” and “the direct election of superintendents.” Consolidation has been a fringe topic that has come up from time to time, but has been largely rejected by the South Dakota legislature.  But an even further stretch would be the direct election of school superintendents, despite the offices currently being filled by a board of local elected officials.

Scott should know who those people are, because Odenbach served on his local board, the Spearfish School Board from 2017 until 2021, where he was actively engaged in the system he proposes to replace; where superintendents are hired by local school boards after what in many cases are exhaustive searches for finding qualified and competent applicants to fill the positions. Unless he’s declaring that as a school board member, he was incapable or unqualified to do that job while he was on the board?

Would South Dakota want to elect school superintendents to be in charge of our children?  Well, that proposal is just plain awful.  I would point out that parents would be placing the future of South Dakota in the hands of who was the best campaigner at a given time.

Imagine if some of the people in our state legislature – instead of proposing bills in Pierre – were in charge of educating our kids?  Would you hand the management of your School District over to “White History Month advocate” and aspiring Visine poisoner Travis Ismay?  How about entrusting handing your kids’ education over to “kooky, wrong and dangerous” dj entertainer Dylan Jordan …who may be living in his gramma’s house?

That proposal should cause parents and taxpayers to absolutely shudder.  I question if either can tie their shoes, much less be capable of being in charge of children.

And as referenced earlier, the “virtual learning” demand – I’m not sure why Scott thinks that would make things better in education.  Anyone remember COVID?  There are papers and studies and stories all confirming the fact that all in all – distance learning doesn’t work.

At the same time that schools are removing phones from students to improve instructional quality, why is the House Majority Leader declaring that somehow rural families are going to be better served by plopping kids in front of screens?

All in all, Rep. Odenbach’s attempt to tie tax reform to some very sketchy agenda items of his own for education is a recipe for disaster that South Dakotans should pay attention to – and reject thoroughly.

Katie Washnok Announces Candidacy for South Dakota Senate, District 3

Aberdeen, S.D. – Katie Washnok, 37, of Aberdeen, proudly announces her candidacy for the South Dakota Senate representing District 3. Washnok enters the race with a promise to bring a new voice, fresh perspective, and tangible results to the people of the greater Aberdeen area.

A lifelong South Dakotan and proven community leader, Washnok has built a strong record of service through her work in local organizations, business leadership, and civic engagement. She is committed to advancing policies that strengthen families, support small businesses, and protect the values that make Northeastern South Dakota a great place to live and work.

Having worked in both Washington, D.C. and Pierre early in her career, Washnok brings valuable insight into the policymaking process and the importance of effective, collaborative leadership. Her years of community involvement have provided her with a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing District 3 residents, from agriculture and education to workforce development and economic growth.

“Aberdeen and Northeastern South Dakota are ready for growth; we need leaders who are ready and able to advocate and make sure we are a priority in Pierre,” said Washnok. “I am focused on real results:infrastructure, more jobs, and opportunities that keep families right here in South Dakota. It’s time for less talk and more action, Aberdeen!”

Katie Washnok invites supporters to join her campaign by following “Katie Washnok for South Dakota Senate” on Facebook or visiting her website at www.katieforsd.com for updates and opportunities to get involved.

—-

Just a note from the editor – you can donate to Katie directly by clicking here.