Predictions about tonight’s Sioux Falls Mayoral election?

Pat Powers

Since the campaign for Sioux Falls mayor effectively ended last week with Loetscher attempting to “Jo-splain” her multiple political debacles of the week in a painful presser late Friday afternoon, any thoughts to where the final campaign numbers are going to end up?

Will it be closer than conventional wisdom gives it credit for, and Paul Ten Haken will win it 55% to 45%?  Or as a state politico just e-mailed me, will it be closer to what he’s “guessing” and “she’ll be below 35%.” Ouch.

Or will most of us be fooled because Loetscher plans on  “#Winning?“

Your thoughts?

39 thoughts on “Predictions about tonight’s Sioux Falls Mayoral election?”

      1. On April 11, I’d have expected Paul to win a close runoff victory. Maybe 53-47. Given Jolene’s recent missteps, I expect a wider margin.

        Paul 62, Jolene 38.

  2. I voted yesterday and discovered both by my observation and confirmation from a person handing out ballots that early voting is MUCH busier than the first election three weeks ago.

    Two potential explanations:

    1) Election is over and people have made up their minds so they are just getting it over with. If this is the case, I think it will be a TenHaken blow-out with actual voting at the polling places today way down. I’d be interested in hearing what people are seeing at the polling places today.

    2) Voters are responding to something which hit a nerve and turn-out is higher than expected. If turn-out is high, this could mean anything (TenHaken blow-out, closer than expected results, or even a Jo win). It depends on what hit their nerve.

    My gut is a TenHaken blow-out but it is tempered by effective Jo closing ads and a conversation I had with a person in the elevator this morning who was voting for Jo. I’m pretty sure this person is a Republican. As I don’t think the “rationale” is a fair commentary on Paul in reality but get how one could reach the perception, I will only share the rationale in the unlikely occasion of a TenHaken loss.

    1. Couldn’t agree with you anymore, it’s going to Be a tenhaken blowout! I’ve ran into a few people who didn’t vote last time, but made comments on how they will this time because they are scared of what JO might do.

      1. Ok make sure to call the people you know and remind them to go vote …don’t let Jo win because of apathy or thinking Paul is going to win so they don’t bother

    3. Troy has identified a Republican ! And the “rationale” is the telling sign. He has also identified the larger party problem.

  4. GO JO loses and (thank goodbess) moves away taking her “bio-tech” company with her.

    1. Do you really want her to move away if she loses? That means her employees lose their jobs, JO and her husband donate their time and money to the community and that is less tax revenue for the city, county and state. Rather intolerant, anti-community and anti-business attitude wouldn’t you say?

  5. Unforced errors on Loetscher’s part were likely caused by Jamison throwing his support to Ten Haken and the sense the election was slipping away from her. This likely only made things worse. Ten Haken is clearly going to win, but some of the last minute antics may suppress turnout (Troy’s anecdote aside.) I’ll go 55-45 Ten Haken.

    1. Yeah. If Jo’s supporters dont vote Tenhaken blows her out. If they do vote I think it’s closer than expected.

    2. I agree with most of your comment, however you are overstating the Jamison effect. I like Greg and voted for him the first time, but when he endorsed Paul my thought was “of course he did, glad they got it done quickly”. I highly doubt it moved the needle as his supporters were very likely to gravitate to Paul anyway. His video only helped to reinforce and shore up that move. I’m not saying it was a bad thing or didn’t help, I just don’t think it was a watershed moment, as your comment seems to indicate.

  8. I had it as a “pick ’em” until last week. The kerfuffles exposed both candidates’ political inexperience, but, overall, Paul handled things so much better than Jo that momentum swung away from her. Early voting for the runoff is heavy, but all the early voting happened after the headlines hit a week ago. I don’t think Jo had a lot of early votes “banked” before sentiment had a chance to turn.

    1. “Political inexperience”- I agree which is what made things unpredictable as it becomes hard to discern what is connecting.

  9. Ten Haken 59-41, possibly as high as 62-38. Zach DeBoer wins the council seat 54-46.

    1. Been following Trevor Mitchell on twitter it seems turnout in the “blue” areas of the city he’s posted about is on pace with or below what it was last time. Ronning Library has had really strong turnout so far from reading his tweets (186 voters I think). And I spoke with a co-worker that votes at Faith Baptist Church and she said that she voted the same time in the morning in the last round (8am) and was the 87th voter this morning (she was 86th last time). But there were a lot more people in line behind her and at other precinct lines than last round at that time.

  12. Do the polls close at 7:00? or when do they close?

    Clearly the biggest political story of the day!

  13. Lincoln County Delegate,

    Thanks for the real time information. Presuming it is representative, I think that bodes well for TenHaken because it likely indicates there isn’t a lot of volatility out there from the first election. He didn’t need anything to happen to win. Volatility FOR him just means a bigger victory which doesn’t change anything as he is still Mayor. But volatility AGAINST him could mean a loss. Jolene needed volatility (which is why she rolled the dice on what she did) to win and at least based what LCD found there isn’t the volatility needed.

  15. If the election were held last Friday, Paul would have won 60/40. But I think the election has tighten up once again, yet still to Paul’s favor. Where I vote, which is the OG area, voter turnout appears to be 2/3s what it was on April 10th. I really can’t see Paul losing this, but I think it will be closer then people realize because of massive Democratic efforts with GOTV and the falloff in votes due primarily, my guess, to disenchanted former Entenman voters and those turned off by the negativity and the fact that there is not a more mature candidate (50+) in the running…. I think Paul will win in the 53 to 57 margin area, however…..

  16. 60-40 Paul
    She made her campaign to much about politics not enough policy The policy she did make blew up in her face. Talk to a police officer.

  19. I voted at Kenny Anderson at 5:45 and was 503. I’d call it normal to maybe a little light for a municipal election.

  20. Turn up in SE. I was voter 997 with at least 10 behind me. This was at 6:30. Overall turnout for this precinct last time was 970 or so.

  22. Turnout is up over first election. TenHaken will finish north of current 62%.

    He will increase his vote total 100% from before. She will increase hers 50% from before. She needed it the other way to win.

    Assessment she blew it the last three weeks worse than I thought. Total flunk.

  24. Jo’s concession speech was bizarre. Not sure she lives in the real world. She got smoked. Went backwards in the runoff. I hope the Democrats continue to rally around her.

    1. She is losing or barely winning the Democrat precincts. Makes her concession delusion even more goofy.

Comments are closed.