The people behind the SDSU Poll, who claim they match the most sophisticated methods of conducting a survey are on Public Broadcasting today claiming that their poll shows the Governor’s race has a tight margin. Unfortunately, their claims seems a bit ..dubious at best:
The race over who will live in the Governor’s Mansion is tightening less than four weeks before the Nov. 8 election, according to a poll released from South Dakota State University on Tuesday.
Gov. Kristi Noem, who’s running for her second term, against Democratic challenger Rep. Jamie Smith is leading the race 45% to 41%, with a margin of error of 4%, according to the SDSU Poll, which is part of the School of American and Global Studies at the university in Brookings. The poll also states 14% of voters have not yet decided.
I can’t help but find the claims of a margin of only 4% between the two candidates questionable. And let me explain why.
There hasn’t been much in terms of public polling being released about the race in general, which makes a lot of political junkies hot to hear what’s going on. But that doesn’t mean we should hoist the first carnival barker up as a confirmed truth-teller. I find wild claims about a close race pretty sketchy without more evidence. And I just don’t find it here.
The same SDSU poll throws a dart at another race in the State – the US Senate Race, where they make a claim of Thune leading in the US Senate race by 53% to 28%. Why do I question it? Again, it seems slanted ridiculously low against the Republican candidate.
In 2016, Senator Thune completely smashed Jay Williams on a 72%-28% vote. Yet 6 years later a poll is released showing the Senator down a significant amount from those prior results by nearly 20% against Brian Bengs, a candidate who Democrats barely acknowledge, and who has had only a negligible campaign presence which even Jay Williams had eclipsed 6 years ago by this time? I think they woefully underestimate the vote.
Especially since they give themselves an “out” by claiming “When undecided Republicans are ultimately forced to choose, negative partisanship makes it highly unlikely that they would vote for Democrat Brian Bengs.” Am I the only one who thinks this stated caveat is their way of claiming oops, “negative partisanship” is why we were way off is a bit of a cop out that they will fall back on when the actual results show a distinct difference?
When we fall back on results we do know, there seems to be a lot of difference to what information we’re gleaning from other places.
Earlier today, we heard from the Morning Consult group about how popular Governor Noem is in South Dakota, with a job approval rate of 57%. So when a poll being conducted about the same time makes the claim that she’s only up from her Democrat opponent by 4 points, you can’t help but to question it.
In a little insider information I’m hearing, Voter ID calls to non-Republican recipients are showing hard percentages in favor of Governor Noem which exceed anything we’re hearing in the SDSU poll. Add that to the overwhelming support she enjoys from Republican voters, and while everyone anticipates the race will narrow, it doesn’t resemble anything that correlates with the SDSU numbers, even beyond their caveat that they “expect that a majority of these undecided respondents will break toward the governor.”
Why are these numbers so weird? Well, one thing you have to look at is the SDSU Poll’s methodology.
To do the polls, the researchers purchased a data file with the addresses of every registered voter in South Dakota from the Secretary of State. They randomly choose from that list and send letters inviting voters to go to the Question Pro website and enter the identification number listed in the letter to take the survey online.
“We are the only poll (in the state) that uses this particular method,” said Wiltse, pointing out most polls are telephone surveys.
They’re basing these results on an on-line survey? Given who uses the internet, I have a strong feeling that these results skew very young. And that’s going to have a big effect. According to the US Census..
Voter turnout also increased as age, educational attainment and income increased. Voter turnout was highest among those ages 65 to 74 at 76.0%, while the percentage was lowest among those ages 18 to 24 at 51.4%.
A poll using a response mechanism that’s most likely to be used by the youngest group (who votes the least) and unused by the oldest group (who votes the most) is skewing to the left? How many seniors do you know who respond to on-line surveys? As I inexorably crawl through my 50’s, I’m not even nice to telephone solicitors anymore, much less finding myself wanting to waste my time with an on-line survey. The methodology alone raises significant doubt in my mind about the accuracy this poll to gauge election results.
Sorry, but I’m not buying what they’re selling. Because a lot of it seems tenuous, especially since all of their results come with a setup where they can shift the blame to “negative partisanship.”
I received the letter and participated in the online poll. The questions were leading and seemed to ask the same thing multiple times in different ways. I clicked a few of the links above and didn’t see if the questions asked were listed in the report.
If I recall, it asked if we have favorable opinions on each candidate and the options for the answer was: “very favorable, somewhat favorable, neutral, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable.”
After that question, it outlined something negative on each candidate then asked: “based on that information how do you view the candidate” with the same options of answers.
So why hasn’t Noem released their internal polling? Could it be….that this race will be just as close if not closer than her last election against Sutton? I can’t wait to see all those women voting against her and the people who are upset about her corruption and using our own money to overturn the will of the people. About the only thing she has going for her this year is it is a non-presidential election year. Turnout for abortion and marijuana might be her undoing.
I remember a poll from 2020 that said South Dakota was going to flip to Biden. That was pretty accurate too wasn’t it? The pollsters can find any outcome they want if that is what their goal is.
When I get any pollster call, I ask who is sponsoring the poll, how are they using the answers, and often they can’t answer either question, and tegardless if they can or can’t, I then hang up.
Thanks for sharing the inane details about your life, Springer. Can’t wait to hear about your morning routine.
HAHAHAHA thanks for the afternoon laugh.
The last poll I participated concerned abortion. The pollster explained there are 10 questions, and would I participate? I responded sure. First question, are you pro-life or pro-choice? I responded pro-life. Then I heard a click and dial tone.
Polls are biased and pollsters are looking for results that suit their agenda.
What’s the over/under on the election fraud?
🙂
I think this race will come down to whomever has the best ballot box counting game.
Would 5G be a factor?
I bet Venezuela will steal it.
The messages are transmitted via chemtrails, I hear.
I find it weird that Noem barely won in 2018 and has not done much to gain votes since then, and yet it’s completely unbelievable that she would again be vulnerable this time around.
She does have those big accomplishments of getting the Legislature to repeal the Bingo Tax, and she totally messed up the state’s social studies education standards.
Good point. It would have been better to leave in all the harping on cherished left-of-center themes and prods to activism.
I, for one, want our schools producing super-smart kids who know how to “think critically” by parroting leftist narratives and mechanically pulling the lever for Democrats every election season.
you either don’t have kids, or raised them in the 80s.
A lot of Republicans will never forgive her for the campaign she ran against Jackley in 2018, which will lower her ceiling. This reelection is likely her swan song state politics because she is not beating Thune, Rounds, or Dusty anytime soon.
2026 will be interesting
` A lot of Republicans will never forgive her for the campaign she ran against Jackley in 2018, `
Correction
A lot of Republicans in name only will never forgive her for the campaign she ran against Jackley in 2018,
The big minus for Smith is that if you vote for him, you are voting for the Democrat Party.
The big minus for Noem, is that if you vote for her you are aligning yourself with people like John Dale.
Talk about a Sophie’s choice.
There are no other people like John Dale.
There are always people like John Dale.
Are you kidding, Pat? Have you met any seniors lately? Expressing opinions online is one of the hallmarks of Boomerhood. All those ads with the bold lettering saying things like, “Do you stand with President Donald J. Trump? Click yes or no.” Do you really think they’re aiming those at Millennials?
Do I think the race will be as close as 2018? Probably not, honestly. Do I think it will be closer than anyone in the GOP cares to admit? Absolutely.
This is the second straight election I’ve been invited to participate in this SDSU poll. I’m a strong Noem supporter, but am unsurprised at the poll result.
There’s a strong anti-establishment bent among South Dakota conservatives, something we saw bubble to the surface at the GOP convention in Watertown in June. It makes me wonder how many of them will vote for “anyone but Noem” on election day, which with the independent wild card, may make this a nail-biter.
Good point, Quint may end up being Ross Perot here.
The last poll I participated concerned abortion. The pollster explained there are 10 questions, and would I participate? I responded sure. First question, are you pro-life or pro-choice? I responded pro-life. Then I heard a click and dial tone.
Polls are biased and pollsters are looking for results that suit their agenda.
That certainly could be an example of a shady pollster, but it also could be that they were trying to get a representative sampling across a specific spectrum (in that case, abortion views). Once they reach a sufficient population to achieve their desired confidence level and/or margin of error, it becomes cost-ineffective to keep polling members of that specific demographic, and they move on to the next number as quickly as possible.
For example, if a poll was trying to ascertain who members of each party were supporting for Congress, and they already had enough Republican answers to achieve their desired margin of error and/or confidence level, they may ask party affiliation as their first question and disconnect those who answer Republican since, at that point, they only need to speak with Democrats and Libertarians. It doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t want to hear from Republicans, it just means they need to hear from the others.
The poll says that Smith is getting 91% support from Democrats, and 7% support from Republicans, and then claims that this adds up to 41% overall.
But Democrats are only 25% of registered voters in South Dakota. So even with 7% of Republicans supporting him, that would only get Smith up to around 26% support overall. And if Noem is getting 80% support from Republicans and 3% from Democrats, she would be around 40% overall.
So, if you apply the partisan breakdown of this poll to actual registered voters in South Dakota, Noem should be leading Smith by about 14%, not 4%.
But, just because Republicans are 50% of registered voters, doesn’t necessarily mean they will only be 50% of the electorate. So far, the early voting numbers at the Secretary of State website are about 65% Republican, and 25% Democrat. And if we apply the partisan numbers from this poll to these percentages, Noem should be getting around 52% of the early vote, and Smith should be getting only around 27%.
In other words, this poll is internally inconsistent and doesn’t line up with actual voter registration in South Dakota. If Smith wants to get anywhere close to 41% of the vote, he will need much more than only 7% of Republicans voting for him.
And while I’m at it, what happened to Tracey Quint? There are actually three candidates in the race, but they only polled two of them. She may not get very much support, but why leave her out?
Since I wrote this comment, the Secretary of State website updated their early vote numbers, so now it’s 53% Republican and 30% Democrat. Which would still mean, based on this poll, Noem should be leading Smith by about 12% just in the early vote, 43-31.
And in 2020 the early voting skewed Democratic compared to the final result. It was 48% Republican and 30% Democrat, but Donald Trump got about 62% of the presidential vote, and Mike Rounds got about 65% of the Senate vote.
And, incidentally, the 2020 polls underestimated both Trump and Rounds, by large margins. KELO had Trump winning by only 11% (missed by 14), and the only poll of the Senate race had Rounds winning by 17% (another 14 point miss).
“Am I the only one who thinks this stated caveat is their way of claiming oops, “negative partisanship” is why we were way off is a bit of a cop out that they will fall back on when the actual results show a distinct difference?”
Not only that, but the 4% margin of error means that, even if you take this poll at face value, Noem’s support could be as high as 49% and Smith could be as low as 37%.
Add to that the 14% undecided, and Noem could end up getting as much as 63% of the vote, beat Smith by a 26 point margin, and the pollster could still claim that, technically, their poll wasn’t wrong.
I came here to find out the questions that were asked in the poll. SDSU hasn’t released those. That’s a big factor to whether it’s an honest poll or not. The only people participating in this poll are those people who have a bone to pick – with either candidate. They actually read their junk mail and picked up their phone or computer and completed a poll with said junkmail in hand. So 500+ people? And they only polled two of three candidates. Quint is a serious component in this race outcome. This could be a study on how not to perform a poll and how to release it (as it sounds like the candidate(s) received the results early?). And I agree with 9:57 Anonymous. The numbers are way off. Both in terms of margin of error and partisan breakdown.
It’s the SDSU Poli Sci department, so it’s not an ‘honest’ poll.
It appears that SHE believes it.
She’s stealing his platform (progressive tax)
She’s also trying to run against Biden instead of Jamie.
It seems that she is more afraid of Jamie.
Govs mom seems adept enough at navigating the internet, or was the govs mom ad a sorry attempt to appear relateable?
Let’s see, Kristi won in 2018 by 3%. She’s up by 4% over Jamie Clause.
Yep, stick a fork in her, she’s done.
The vast majority of Republicans will not vote for a Democrat under any circumstances. The problem is, with so few competitive races, and with inter-party intrigue and controversy, will older, wiser Republicans, and young, not engaged, Republicans prefer to stay home??