As of October, 23 states—driving about a third of U.S. GDP—face high recession risk, or are already in recession. https://t.co/w65HFMaKKF via @visualcap
— South Dakota War College (@SoDakCampaigns) December 16, 2025
According to Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:
Nearly one-third of national GDP is produced in states that are either in recession or at high risk of entering one. These regions, spread across every part of the country, are showing signs of strain. Another third of states are treading water, while the rest are still growing, though their momentum is fading.
This is an update to an assessment I posted over a month ago, and is based on looking at a wide range of data. To determine whether a state is in or close to recession, I apply the definition of recession used by the business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, namely, a broad-based, persistent decline in economic activity. Admittedly, the government shutdown and the loss of economic data from the federal government is complicating this assessment.
Read the entire economic forecast here.
And South Dakota is towards the top of that list. Of the 50 states, according to the story and the chart provided, the author notes that South Dakota has the 7th weakest economy in the NATION.
Why is this worth paying attention to? After spiking things like the ethanol pipeline related projects, the NIMBY crowd is refocusing on new projects to kill which would contribute to community economic activity. Such as data centers.
Interestingly, North Dakota – who will end up with the GEVO plant we lost – appears to be recession proof. Nebraska, a key location for carbon capture pipelines, primarily through Tallgrass Energy’s Trailblazer Pipeline, which transports captured CO2 from ethanol plants in Nebraska and Iowa to underground storage in Wyoming, they have green-light economies as well. But right between them in South Dakota? We’re not looking so good.
Any political candidate who isn’t focused on re-firing the economic engine that South Dakota used to be may find themselves paying for it at the ballot box. The next election isn’t about Not-In-My-Backyard politics as much as it’s going to be about reinvigorating the land of opportunity in what is already planned to be a hard economy for South Dakota.
This certainly explains why Governor Rhoden wants to add 2.5 percent to the reserves. He sees that storm that is coming.
“Land of opportunity” my ass.
Wait, you mean that after decades of brain-drain, lack of economic diversification, and single party rule the chickens might be coming home to roost? Shocked, absolutely shocked.
Yeah! When you stack the deck to make sure there is no competition outside of a particular party this is sadly what we get. It is a race to the bottom competing to be the dumbest, most extreme and creepy as we have painfully experienced last session and others before.
What a wonderful state! No competition in politics. No interest in competing for economic opportunities.
The folks on here complaining about a “one party rule” aren’t seeing the forest through the trees. The current so far right they’re left political machine in SD has pushed a far left economic agenda. But instead of losing out on economic growth due to overregulation, as it generally happens with the left side of the isle, we’re losing out because this group is simply saying no. To everything. Same court, same goal, just a different ball.
South Dakota: Even when the right controls everything and has for decades, it’s still the left’s fault. (TM)
Thats not at all what I said. It absolutely the right, the far, far rights fault. But the policies they are pushing are drenched in leftist ideology. Thats entirely different than saying it is the lefts fault.
Remember Noem bragging about her economy the same way Trump lies about his? This is what she actually bestowed on us.
GEVO fell through because Trump pulled the plug on their Green New Deal federal loan guarantee. Their ND plant is half the size of what they planned to build.
They will have multiple ND plants and multiple CO2 sequestration wells. SD missed out and GEVO will continue to fulfill their goal of providing airlines with SAF to achieve their 2035 goals. You see, the world generally continues on even when the uneducated, climate change denying fools dig in their heels. The world is demanding it and they are going to produce it.
Looks like Larry is making South Dakota strong safe and free. What a joke.
How do you explain Iowa then? They bent over for Summit and still on the list.
Struggling ag sector, banks closing, and school vouchers reaching almost $300 million dollars a year, far exceeding initial estimates.
Texas is green and thriving. No income tax like us. But their sales tax is 2 -3 percent higher depending on the county/city. You know what else is booming in Texas. Data Centers. They are the nation’s leaders in Data Centers and give substantial breaks on taxes for start-up data centers.
The Trump Recession is coming and they are going to put us even further in debt. I am trying to figure out if their goal is to destroy the dollar. This administration can only deny reality for so long.
The “grassroots” voters that kicked the pro business, pro agriculture, pro development republicans to the curb last cycle are likely feeling the financial pain of their victory.
It’s going to get worse very soon. Energy rates are going to increase a lot next year and it’s got nothing to do with Data centers but everything to do with spreading the cost out over fewer customers.