Thune: It’s Time for Us to Come Together to Fight This Virus
“This is a time for all of us to come together to ensure that medical professionals, American businesses, and American families have what they need to combat the coronavirus and deal with its effects
Click here or on the picture above to watch Thune’s speech.
WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) today discussed Senate Republicans’ top priorities in their effort to fight the coronavirus outbreak. These priorities include providing direct assistance to American workers and families, giving our economy necessary support, and providing medical professionals with the resources they need to fight the virus.
Smells like socialism. I guess there’s no capitalists in a viral foxhole.
Ike, in a capitalistic democracy, when the government orders “non-profitable” behavior or our taking action that damages businesses and peoples incomes, it seems like they’d be treated like all other contractors or people who serve the government- pay them. To not pay them is effectively seizing their business and a chance for citizens to earn an income which is certainly not consistent with a capitalist democracy.
Not a black and white matter.
Are you ready to admit that you played fast and loose with the facts on the rate of spread of the virus yet, Troy? You’ve been avoiding responding.
I did not play loose with the facts. I might have made some incorrect assumptions on actual cases (vs. actual reported cases) or extrapolations. But they weren’t done loosely or casually. I have messed around with maybe 50 spreadsheets to figure out what was happening. I’ve said all the time known cases were a small percentage of total infections.
Remind me about which I was talking in particular and context. I’ve had several conversations regarding rate of spread in Asia, Europe and the US.
What I have tried to be consistent on is to always follow CDC guidelines and instructions based on what the virologists and epidemiologists communicate is proper action based on the facts on the ground.
What is currently important to keep in mind as we act based on the facts (Europe Population is 50% larger than US Population)
Deaths (EU): Roughly 4,000 (added in my head)
Deaths (US): Roughly 125
Serious/Critical Cases (EU): Roughly 4,000 (added in my head)
Serious/Critical Cases (US): 12
For us to be in the same position today as Europe, we’d have to have over 45,000 cases (which maybe we do as testing is just ramping up) but we are a long ways from 2,500 deaths and 2,500 serious cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I’m hesitant to have too much discussion as we are about to undergo a period of testing which will explode known cases (they exist but we don’t know it) but there some charts you can toggle back and forth between linear and logarithmic. Not going to do a math lesson here but when the logarithmic charts gets flatter, the infection rate is declining (simple explanation so if you are a math person, you will grasp the nuance).
Another chart (not yet meaningful as we haven’t had enough time where there are significant recoveries) that is going to be important is when recoveries start to match new cases because we again appear to be turning a corner. I’m not sure I’m understanding what I’m reading but I think the epidemiologists are saying either when recoveries exceed new cases or two weeks after such date is when we can begin relaxing certain restrictions on the general public (not relaxing wash hands, don’t touch face, protect elderly, etc as those we need to continue until at least we have anti-virals and vaccinations).
You wrote: “First, with the rapidity of the decline in rate of spread, every day that goes by indicates it is more likely to be less or comparably contagious.”
It wasn’t declining in anywhere but China. While you claimed its spread was declining, it was actually on the exponential growth portion of a logistic curve. Either you lied, or you were careless.
Not sure what post this refers to but I trust I said it. .
Rate of spread (maybe I used the wrong word) I may have been referencing related to the average infections caused by each infected person. There are roughly three factors which can impact this:
1) Mode(s) of transmission.
2) Interdiction efforts (washing hands, etc)
3) Social distancing.
#2 and #3 are factors which are impacted by awareness and diligence of execution.
Still not sure what I was comparing it to (maybe China with regard to insight into life cycle of it in the community and herd immunity factors. I don’t know for sure) but I suspect it was swine flu as that is the comparable I’ve most looked at. Not what mitigation factor we were getting indication was impacting spread.
To be clear, linear or absolute numbers are the easiest to look at and which can actually give the most false reading of what is really happening (on the positive or negative). I’ve almost never mentioned absolute numbers as an indication of anything
Since you are following cdc guidelines for this, will you start being a proponent of their stances on vaccines? Or is it more of a pick and choose for how much you trust healthcare specialists?
I’ve never not been an advocate of vaccinations, including mandatory school vaccinations. Or is this in reference to someone else?
Well that’s just plain silly. Last I heard they were talking $850 billion for a ‘bailout’. I don’t think we’ve got that laying around in the national couch cushions, so that’s gotta come from somewhere – hmmm… more debt? Who’s going to pay that debt? Oh, yeah. American taxpayers. So isn’t this really just redistributing future wealth? How is that not socialist?
You can put lipstick on that pig all you want, but taking money from Peter tomorrow to pay Paul today isn’t capitalism. Whatever happened to pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and rugged individualism? Shouldn’t we all have been saving our $$$ for a rainy day like today?
“Don’t you worry about me…..the Thune’s are doing just fine. Got tested this morning, probably again tonight, and at least three more times tomorrow. As for supplies, we don’t shop like the rest of you. Our TP is airlifted in by blue-top helicopter. So, yeah. Hope all is good in South Dakota, and I hope nobody remembers this in 4 years. God Bless!”
Anonymous 1:12:
I’ve made a lot of extrapolations and computations in a lot of spreadsheets so I may have been wrong in my assertion but never have I played loose with my computations or assumptions. If you can remind specifically the context of what I said, I can
Here is what is most critical for a comparison (Added the Europe number is my head so I might be off a bit):
Deaths (EU): Roughly 2,500 adjusted for population difference (4,000 actual deaths)
Deaths (US): Roughly 125
Serious Cases (EU): Roughly 2,500 adjusted for population difference (4,000 actual deaths)
Serious Cases (US): 12
Whether our rate of infection is declining or not (I do suspect the number of infections the average infected person inflicts is declining which is the “rate of infection” I think is most relevant (I don’t have time to explain everything as this has already taken me a couple of hours as I jump back and forth to this response) but the information is fuzzy on that), what appears to be happening is our rate of infection of at risk people is very low compared to most of the world.
Also, I point you to the charts to toggle between linear charts and logarithmic charts. Disregard the Total Case chart for 10 days until we get more testing done. Not going to give a math lesson on what logarithmic tells us but turning flat is a very good sign.
One more thing to monitor (not readily available yet) is an important day is when recoveries exceed new cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Ike, we are paying the pharma companies and hospitals to do things for the public health. Businesses who close or are otherwise affected to help the public health deserves compensation too. Otherwise, it is a form of public theft.
Thune, you support Trump who, thanks to Bolton, fired the guy who could’ve prevented or at least lessened this mess. Now you wanna throw everybody a grand and hope they still vote R?
You’ve aligned yourself with some very greedy people who don’t like when they’re double crossed. Tough spot. Weak talk won’t get you anywhere. Where are the tests Pence and Kristi said were coming just a day or two?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/
He put the responsibility in the CDC and DHS which are field operations vs. the White House’s advisory National Security Counsel. But, you keep advocating for bureaucracy. I will go with action during a crisis.
Action without a solid leader is what we have now. Unprepared, inconsistent messaging, lies about supplies, not enough money to go around, no plan in place. But hey, keep running the govt like a business and see where it gets you.
Two comments:
1) I suspect you not have watched the daily CDC briefing and press availability at the White House, read the directives and guidelines issued daily, and heard the praise the Governor most at ground zero (NY Gov. Cuomo) or you’d have never said that.
2) Like was done after the 2009-2010 Swine Flu epidemic, there will be a post mortem done of how this was handled (in general it was positive and much of the current protocols followed now were put in place then).
My guess the prediction the most critical component will be irrational and fearful non-epidemologically justified actions and reactions which did not serve the public health and an admonition in the future to have closer adherence to CDC guidelines regarding response (individual and collective).
I also think there will be a creation of two levels of national emergency powers for the President which allows POTUS exercise of powers in specific locales (like what can be done with tornadoes for example) to prevent rogue local politicians who take actions contrary to the public health in the near or long term.
These briefings? Trump is about saving face and nothing else. You’ll never hear him say they made mistakes. Never show weakness, that’s for wussies like Obummer M I RIGHT?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/cdc-top-us-public-health-agency-is-sidelined-during-coronavirus-pandemic/
Do you watch them? Did you read the article?
Personally, I don’t need to hear from the guy running the CDC who is not a good communicator if the information is better presented by Faucci and Birx, for instance.
Its apparent you suffer from TDS and quoting the Liberal Left wing Bernie Sanders Washington post is not going to help you on this blog. Here are some FACTS as to what the media is doing even in this crisis
– President calls this a Chinese Virus because you know it originated it China and they call him Racist yet NBC, the SAME outlet who called him racist used the Term
– Liberal outlets are claiming he didn’t do enough to stop the spread and when he stopped Air Travel from CHina they called him racist yet EVERY other country in Europe have now followed suit yet those bozos waited until its too late.
See what folks like you don’t seem to get is his ACTIONS are speaking louder than his words. Yet when he does something good he gets called names and it gets twisted. Your boy OBOZO waited 3+ months to declare a state of Emergency with H1N1 and no one said shit to him, just praised how great he was.
I could probably point to articles and facts that back this stuff up but, folks like you don’t care. THe hypocrisy in the Media and you Dumb F@cks that just GO along with it is astounding. The double standards are so flagrant you would have to be blind not to see it. I never recall the blatant outrage when Obama did or said anything when in similar situations yet Trump does it and its Epic meltdown. You dont have to like him or his delivery but, the man has delivered on just about everything he said he would and I have yet to see ANY president do this in the last 30+ years.
Troy,
Your adherence to the idea that this is all overblown and that the biggest mistake is that we have overreacted is admirable if misguided.
Study after study, memo after memo, press conference after press conference, all suggest that people socially distance, even more than they are doing now, and had they done so sooner, we could have controlled this here in America.
Sadly the exponential growth and CFR 10x higher than the “regular flu” continue.
I have never once advocated doing less than what is recommended by the CDC guidelines which has always included social distancing.
Every reference I’ve made to hysteria and over-reaction is related to non-experts calling for collective actions, politicians succumbing to a fearful mob instead of providing leadership of adhering to actions epidemiologically justified based on actual realities, or individuals acting contrary to CDC guidelines.
The reason the epidemiologists at the CDC do not recommend certain general actions (shutdowns and closures, etc.) until epidemiologically warranted by the situation in that particular community is the CDC knows that discipline and compliance breaks down as time goes on and some actions only trade one public health problem for another (i.e. missed meals for children when schools are closed, forcing parents to work when they are sick as they need the money to feed the kids at home or using health or using health compromised grandparents for child care).
I stress how important to recognize what the CDC understands and incorporates in all their community guidelines:
1) Discipline and compliance is only effective for so long.
2) Epidemiologist’s models incorporate is what actions are optimal of when and how to be deployed based on the realities on the ground inconsideration of what action is sustainable.
3) CDC discourages pre-emptive actions of “better safe than sorry” because many actions have limited effective shelf lives and are most effective combined with other efforts (which also might have limited effective shelf lives).
Regarding CFR, it is impossible to know what the CFR (deaths/total cases) is (or will be) until we have insight into not only the identified cases via testing (which is only done with symptoms) and extrapolate cases which are never tested (asymptomatic, mild symptoms not reported, or mistaken for the cold, etc).
Current US Unadjusted CFR (deaths/test confirmed cases ) is roughly 1.5%. We all know there are more cases out there so the final CFR is unknown and will depend on what the final % of cases are asymptomatic or mild. I think it important to remember this regarding the swine flu. We ended the infection period with 500,000 known cases and 12,000 deaths (2.5% CFR). After CDC did their extrapolations of mild and asymptomatic cases, they estimated total cases were 60 million (including half our children) which is a CFR of less than .02%.
Here is what is important as it is what we can control and has the biggest impact on public health outcomes:
1) Reduce transmission by practicing safe practices (wash hands, don’t touch face, wipe surfaces, minimize close contact)
2) Take extra-ordinary protections for the elderly and vulnerable.
3) Follow CDC guidelines as individuals and collectively.
4) React and re-calibrate every day based on new information as it becomes available.
One final comment: Never do people act rationally and altruistically if they are fearful and hysterical. Not only does bad information and hysteria jeopardize our public health but whether or not this economic dislocation is a short-term problem to be overcome or deteriorate into a Depression.