Post “Placeholder Bailout” Senate Power Rankings

Now that the placeholders have taken a step back from running the political atmosphere has changed slightly, so while we wait for new candidates to drop in their spot (or not), I thought it might be a good exercise to see what the lay of the land is.

So, unless we pick up a couple of replacements from Democrats which are not expected……

D

Rep

Dem

Other

Power Rating

Notes

1

 

Frerichs

 

Dem Over

 

2

Greenfield

 

 

GOP Over

 

3

Novstrup

Heidelberger

 

Strong GOP

Longtime elected official
v. Carpetbagger. See Corinna Robinson.

4

Wiik

Tyler

 

Lean GOP/Toss Up

Toss Up District w/2 who have faced election before. Tyler Comes with a lot of
electoral baggage.

5

Tapio

Johnson

 

GOP Over

Tapio has it won, barring a replacement

6

Otten

Boese

 

Strong GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

7

Tidemann

Perpich

 

Strong GOP

Long-time Incumbent v. unknwn

8

Youngberg

Parsley

 

Lean Dem

Youngberg running aggressively.
Getting more interesting.

9

Peters

Boltjes

 

GOP Over

Peters is over

10

Haggar

Powers

 

Strong GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

11

Stalzer

Cool

 

Strong GOP

Has Cool ever won a race, despite multiple attempts? Stalzer has.

12

Curd

Sanden

 

Strong/Lean GOP

Curd is incumbent, but Sanden will likely take some shots at him. As long as Curd runs, he should be safe.

13

Kolbeck

Pierson

 

Lean GOP

Denny Pierson has prior experience, but grasping at straws anymore. Kolbeck has a good team behind him.

14

Soholt

 

Swanger

Strong GOP

 Swanger running as conservative indy in district w/out any GOP backing against Republican.

15

 

Nesiba

 

Dem Over

 

16

Bolin

Skiles

 

Strong GOP

Bolin is a campaign
machine. It’s over.

17

Rusch

Merrill

 

Lean GOP

Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill has yet to make
his case why to replace him.

18

 

Kennedy

Stone

Dem Over

Stone ran good campaign 2 years ago,but withdrew for employment

19

Nelson

Graef

 

Strong GOP

Graef was recently arrested for DUI. Nelson will win.

20

Klumb

Berg

 

Lean GOP

Klumb is from right area in District, but Berg is not inexperienced.
Today, we call it for Klumb.

21

 

Sutton

 

Dem Over

 

22

White

Groth

 

GOP Over

Absent a replacement, it’s done.

23

Cronin

 

 

GOP Over

 

24

Monroe

 

 

GOP Over

 

25

Langer

Barth

 

Toss Up

Both candidates have visibility in district that has elected Democrats in the last decade. Langer is excellent candidate, but Barth isn’t inexperienced.

26

 

Heinert

 

Dem Over

 

27

 

Killer

 

Dem Over

 

28

Maher

 

 

GOP Over

 

29

Cammack

 

Kindler

Strong GOP

I can’t even tell you
Kindler’s name. We can call this one over.

30

Russell

LaRive

 

Strong GOP

LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River
County. It’s over.

31

Ewing

 

 

GOP Over

 

32

Solano

Hubbard

 

Strong GOP

It is over

33

Jensen

Stuck

 

Strong GOP

Unless Jensen says something
ill-advised (again), this race is his after winning the primary.

34

Partridge

 Schultz

 

Strong GOP

 Over

35

Haverly

 

 

GOP Over

 

The tale of the tape has Democrats giving up 10 seats as uncontested at this point, while Republicans are giving up an unusual 6. Primarily because of a lack of competition for Heinert & Sutton, and what happened in District 18.

Otherwise, I think the races have remained fairly steady since the post primary review. Watch for things to start to shift slightly in the next 30 days when everything starts to gear up.

Still, I’d rather be in the GOP’s shoes than the Democrats, as they’re giving up an incredible 30% or so of the seats in the State Senate, while Republicans are only taking a pass on 17%.

16 thoughts on “Post “Placeholder Bailout” Senate Power Rankings

  1. Anonymous

    Any odds on Novstrop vs Heidelberger? 80% Novstrup vs 20% for Heidelberger in the general election? Maybe 20% is too high for him.

    1. Adam Zobel

      I’d go with 90/10….maybe even 95/5…..there are absolutely no Dem coattails for Cory H. to ride.

      The bothersome trend, however, is that half of the Senate races are decided before a fall ballot is even cast. It’s hard to have a vigorous debate over the issues when no candidates are running.

  2. Sioux Falls, #1 SD city

    What is the breakdown of conservatives against the fake Republicans in the senate? Are conservatives going to be able to stop the Democratic factions in the GOP (Peters, Tidemann, Cammack, etc)?

    1. Mr. Neiloh

      Doubtful. Duggy, Soholt, Peters, Mickelson and company have a pretty good strong hold on the Republican party. I am personally waiting for these four to announce another tax increase of 0.5% or better yet a new tax like a Corporate Income Tax to raise money.

  3. Anon

    What are your thoughts on the Tyler “Jesus is pro-choice” versus Wiik “I don’t care what my constituents say” race?

    1. Anonymous

      I don’t agree with that analysis….Wiik is a thoughtful guy. What issue do you believe he did not follow his constituents?

      A liberal bomb thrower who will never accomplish anything in Pierre vs a thoughtful conservative…. Wiik all the way!

      1. Mr. Neiloh

        Tyler is a loose cannon. Worse than Trump. Say what you want about Wiik but at least he stands by what he says versus a lot of other politicians out in Pierre.

  4. Troy Jones

    Here is the significance of what this analysis:

    If the Democrats win every race they are “supposed” to win, every toss-up AND ever lean GOP, they still don’t have over 1/3 of the body which is necessary to be relevant.

    Bottomline: Dem’s top out at between 6-8 members which is 17%-23% of the body.

  5. Anon

    Interesting discussion of Wiik/Tyler. In the last election Mr Wiik came in 4th place in a four candidate race in his home county. Both Dems beat him. He won in distant counties because people voted for the R with little knowledge of the person. Tyler is crazy rigid on the left, but Wiik is the mirror image on the right. I do not believe “thoughtful” describes either candidate. They are both driven by overwhelming fringe-element philosophical passions.

  6. In the District

    Clearly, it doesn’t matter what anyone says on this blog about Tyler/Wiik. The ONLY thing that’s important is what their voters think. Wiik is a good guy but he doesn’t have the coat tails he had last election. To win Milbank, the largest community in our district, he has to get rid of that chip on his shoulder. And Wiik and every other Milbank voter knows what I’m talking about. Next, he needs to show voters he wants to win. Last election I got all kind of stuff from Tyler in my mailbox and she came to my house twice. Wiik didn’t knock on my door once – and I’m a registered Republican! I voted for Wiik before and I’ll vote for him again, but if he wants to win what will be a close election, he needs to up his game.

    1. Anonymous

      Wiik may have missed your house but he was definitely going door to door. I went with him a couple of days when we covered Clear Lake, Goodwin, Stockholm and Kranzburg.