Does the prison project passage affect Governor Rhoden’s 2026 campaign?

According to an Argus Leader article in August, Governor Larry Rhoden is quickly approaching one of the final barriers to his campaign announcement. In the August 13 article by Dominick Dausch, Rhoden noted:

Rhoden was critical of the idea of announcing a campaign bid in 2025. Asked by the Argus Leader when he would make his announcement if he decided to try to retain his office, Rhoden said he would not declare his candidacy until after the state’s special legislative session on Sept. 23, when the full Legislature will decide on whether to approve or reject legislation to construct a new men’s prison in Sioux Falls.

In case you haven’t noticed by the multiple press releases coming out in relation to next week’s special session, the time is almost here for legislators to cast a yes or no vote on the latest iteration of the prison project.

This would be the same prison project that passed under Governor Noem, then had additional funding rejected under Governor Rhoden this last session, and was revised and reset under “Project Prison Reset” with a new consultant and studied.  And had a task force ultimately move the whole thing from Lincoln County to Sioux Falls.

Once this was complete, in July a special session was called for September 23. And yesterday, there were still things happening in hopes of making the prison project more palatable, as the Governor announced a plan to create the Correctional Rehabilitation Task Force.

And here we are.  The Special Session is next Tuesday, and Governor Rhoden’s announcement could come shortly thereafter.  But, what happens if the prison funding session goes south? And they kick the can down the road to January?

I ask, because nobody should expect that this is a sure thing.

There’s been lots of speculation on what to think about the special session. What should you expect?  No idea. That’s how close the votes likely are. I’ve been told by some legislators that they think the votes should be there. I’ve been told by others that they think the Governor is short by as many as 9 votes.  And these aren’t those on the fringes – these are pretty solid people all disagreeing on where it is.

Because there’s potentially a lot riding on this vote for Governor Rhoden. Not the least of which directly affects his political future. As noted, the Governor’s campaign to run for the seat he took over after Governor Kristi Noem went to Washington is yet to start. But, Rhoden’s tenure since taking over mid-session has been a bumpy ride at times, most of all with the prison headache, and the hard pushback he’s received.

But there have been other issues. And some are pushing back against this project he’s driven all the way to the finish line.

 

The Perils of the Prison Project 

First and foremost on the “other issues” was House Bill 1052, which took a stake, and drove it through the efforts of Summit Carbon to pipe CO2 underground from a large number of the state’s ethanol plants and a proposed bio-jet fuel plant to North Dakota for sequestration in the ground.  The Governor’s signing of this bill came after  ‘ve been told by multiple sources that Governor Rhoden was whipping votes against the measure up to the evening before the vote.

With the measure’s passage, after his signature, Governor Rhoden was sending out a press release talking about how this was “an opportunity for a needed reset,” which is similar to the language he used in the “Project Prison Reset.”

This reset has sent jobs and projects out of state, such as the billion dollar bio-jet fuel plant. This reversal of position on the pipeline that several legislators experienced from the Governor are said to have at least a few openly questioning whether they are going to vote for the prison next week, because they frankly feel a bit burned by it.

Next comes a letter that I’m told legislative democrats sent to the Governor about what they wanted. Which may have prompted the plan to create the Correctional Rehabilitation Task Force.  If that was put in place to help round up the votes that Rhoden needs, it may indicate that margins are slimmer than some anticipated, and that there’s things happening behind the scenes to shore up votes.

KELO-Land is reporting that Rep. Tina Mulally, the Treasurer of the Republican Party, who holds the same position with the Freedom caucus,  says that the group will be voting against the project.  This would be the 9 public members that will admit their affiliation, plus others who won’t admit they belong, but will still vote that way.  This group crosses a huge part of a venn diagram with supporters of his potential Gubernatorial opponent, Toby Doeden, who for political reasons continues his opposition to the bill, claiming that “Violent criminals don’t need luxury accommodations,” despite the likelihood of lawsuits being filed by if the new prison is not built, due to the medieval 100 year old+ housing. Following his lead, State Representative (and Doeden Acolyte) Brandei Schaefbauer has declared that she’s a no.

Other legislators are vowing opposition, such as Sen. Kevin Jensen, who has declared himself a hard no.  Speaker of the House, and gubernatorial aspirant, Jon Hansen as late as September 2, was hedging his bets by saying

..there remains great uncertainty around the current $650 million price tag. I raised this issue during the Prison Reset Task Force meetings: What justifies this new figure? How can legislators have confidence in this extraordinary cost, especially when Nebraska is building a prison facility with the same beds for half the price—and we still have no detailed explanation as to why? 

But, KELO-Land is also claiming in a story this week that Hansen and House Majority Leader Scott Odenbach may now be supportive of the new plan.  (Don’t hold your breath.)

But who knows. This is all in the environment where anything could happen, and Rhoden’s team will be whipping votes for passage for the prison up until the final moments. With the success or failure of this project which Rhoden has personally shepherded through, which remains yet unsure, there is every possibility that Rhoden’s moving forward with his campaign for Governor hinges on the prison project not going south.

 

The state of Rhoden’s entry into the race

In an environment that has become hyper-accelerated due to the political environment and entrance of multiple candidates into various races, Rhoden has largely remained out of the campaign mix that is seeing other candidates already wrapping campers and racking up bills.  But, when you have your name on the second floor office in the State Capital building, you don’t have to have as much paid media as others. Because it’s built in with the job. Governor Rhoden doesn’t need to wrap an old camper to travel the state, because as one of the perks of the job, he has the Open for Opportunity Tour for going around the state and promoting business and growth. Of course, he has to take some lumps for it, but that comes with the job.

The exposure he receives for being Governor is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, because earned media is ALWAYS better than what you can pay for. And that’s a good thing for the Governor. Because it’s the downside of not having started his campaign yet.  The word on the street is that the Rhoden for Governor effort is very, very cash poor when it comes to money in the bank.

Last month, a PAC was formed to raise money for Rhoden for Governor campaign by State Rep. Mike Derby and State Sen. Arch Beal.  And it’s entirely possible that was done because of the hurdle the Governor is facing against people who are in, or have been looking at the race for a longer period of time.  The word I’m hearing through the grapevine is that – because the campaign hasn’t started – I am told that Governor Rhoden’s campaign account only has around $125,000.

That might beat the pants off of the Jon Hansen Pizza Ranch tour, but against Toby Doeden who said he’s spend up to $10 million out of his own pocket, and Congressman Dusty Johnson who already has has $7 million in the bank, and people lined up to attend his South Dakota fundraisers, that’s a massive gap to make up.

In the latest polling I’ve heard about, without lifting a finger Rhoden is sitting less than ten points behind Congressman Dusty Johnson. Which should provide him some breathing room, but that isn’t going to last forever.   And it means that Rhoden needs to kick his campaign into high-gear sooner than later.  Which is why the prison plan is so critical.   If this special session goes sideways, and the can is kicked down the road, Rhoden might decide he’s not going to get things started, when he really, really needs to.  With 104 days left in 2025 as of today, Rhoden needs to raise over $67,000 a day to match what Congressman Johnson has in the bank by the end of the year.  Even at a lesser amount, say, $4.5 million – that’s over $43,000 a day he’d need to raise for the race ($300,000 a week).  And that’s only to play catch up.

Which if there are complications such as the prison project stalling, it makes his job of appealing to those who want to back the next Governor of South Dakota even tougher. In a close race, where the top two candidates  – Rhoden and Johnson – are neck in neck, the Governor can’t afford many hits on what the public thinks about his ability to deliver important votes. And the prison project is the biggest project he’s been tasked with to date.

 

Let me close by noting that I don’t know of any reasonable person who doesn’t personally like Larry Rhoden. I like Larry. If you’ve met him, you would too. He is undeniably a good guy and a gentleman.  Who is facing one of the earliest.. and let’s face it, one of the craziest political seasons that we’ve experienced to date. The fact is that this environment demands that candidates up and down the ticket need to be at the top of their game, and especially for the higher tier candidates, they need to be out on the campaign trail now.

Stay tuned as we watch what happens in the special session. It may be foreshadowing for what’s coming in 2026.