Guest Column: On Credit Scores, Governments Blunder, Taxpayers Wonder by Pete Sepp, President, National Taxpayers Union

On Credit Scores, Governments Blunder, Taxpayers Wonder
by Pete Sepp

Pete Sepp is president of National Taxpayers Union

Taxpayers have a huge stake in ensuring that financial risks are properly and predictably measured for the government loan programs they have been forced to backstop. Credit scores are vital tools for taking those measurements, so the loan space has common reference points for creditworthiness.

But a recent evaluation from American Enterprise Institute (AEI) analysts shows that a years-long effort from the government to create “competition” out of thin air for the credit scoring market may have left taxpayers no better off—and perhaps even worse off.

AEI explored that proposition after a VantageScore White Paper claimed its VantageScore 4.0 model had a clear edge over FICO’s longstanding product by predicting “up to 49% more mortgage defaults leading into the COVID-19 pandemic period than Classic FICO.”

This would normally be great news for taxpayers, who are depending on the most accurate credit score environment possible to help avoid costly bailouts of bad loans going forward.

Unfortunately, AEI found that after adjusting for “methodological inconsistencies and selection bias,” VantageScore’s contentions may not be up to snuff:

Once these issues are corrected, the purported performance advantage of VantageScore 4.0 largely disappears. While VantageScore 4.0 has a marginal advantage over Classic FICO in capturing high risk loans within the bottom risk decile, the difference is relatively small. Across the full sample, Classic FICO performs as well as, and in some cases better than, VantageScore 4.0 on several key predictive measures.

But isn’t AEI going out on a limb in drawing its own conclusions? If so, others are sitting in the same tree with them. In late 2024, an Urban Institute study concluded that:

[b]oth credit scoring models effectively distinguish between high-risk and low-risk borrowers,” and even though “VantageScore 4.0 is marginally more effective at identifying high-risk borrowers from among those with the lowest credit scores . . . the differences are small.

The Milliman firm, which assisted with NTU’s policy paper on credit scoring in 2019, conducted its own side-by-side comparison last year and observed “there is information in using both credit scores in evaluating mortgage default risk,” specifically noting “the default rates are generally consistent between scores, but caution should be used when using Vantage directly in existing mortgage models.”

After the 2018 passage of legislation directing Fannie and Freddie’s watchdog, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to develop a process for evaluating credit score models, in 2022 FHFA finally approved two that the GSEs could use: VantageScore 4.0 and the newer FICO 10T. Incoming FHA Director Bill Pulte’s unexpected decision just three months ago to instead “allow” Fannie and Freddie-handled loans to use either VantageScore 4.0 or Classic FICO further roiled lending markets.

VantageScore (owned by three credit bureaus perched elsewhere in the loan ecosystem) is sure to fire back at AEI and others to defend its turf, while the AEI, Urban Institute, and Milliman studies all have important caveats.

Nonetheless, taxpayers are left to wonder whether they are on any safer ground with government mortgage liabilities now than they were when lawmakers and regulators pushed the credit score competition issue seven years ago.

Three of the four studies referenced above found varying, and relatively small differences in the predictability of the two models. And for these small differences, lenders may be incurring major overhead for converting operations to both models that could raise costs for borrowers.

Less scrupulous actors might also be tempted to play off one score against another in each loan situation to qualify as many borrowers as possible—a “gaming” scenario that defeats the purpose of the models in predicting risk, while leaving taxpayers to guarantee an even bigger government-backed lending portfolio.

Instead of more blunders that imperil the nation’s finances, taxpayers need a policy reset now from both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. It starts with a full disclosure from FHFA, internal documents and all, about how it arrived at the 2022 credit score competition decision. And as NTU testimony has demonstrated, taxes are by far the single biggest consideration in a consumer’s mortgage closing costs.

Congress at least recognized that problem by making Private Mortgage Insurance a more attractive, tax-deductible product via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. States and localities need to do their part by reducing transfer taxes and rationalizing the building permit process.

Meanwhile, stronger capital requirements, policies to encourage reinsurance and risk transfer away from taxpayers in the mortgage market, and a genuine plan for government divestment of the GSEs all deserve thoughtful formulation from federal leaders. These approaches will create a stronger housing market that will encourage better predictive tools to evolve organically, rather than at government’s spearpoint.

In a recent op-ed for National Mortgage News, the authors of the AEI study concluded, “given the trillions in mortgage debt, millions of borrowers, and immense taxpayer exposure, it is essential that the debate be grounded in facts rather than marketing.”

Taxpayers agree . . . and they are still wondering when public officials will recognize the need for that debate to happen.

President Trump Signs Johnson Provisions into Law


President Trump Signs Johnson Provisions into Law

Washington, D.C. – Today, two provisions led by U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) were signed into law by President Trump. The provisions would strengthen America’s deterrence against China and prohibit men from competing in women’s sports at military academies.

“My provisions will keep our military focused on what matters – military readiness and combatting our greatest threat, China,” said Johnson. “America’s military is the strongest in the world and I’m grateful this year’s annual defense bill prioritizes our fighting force.”

Strengthening Deterrence against China:

Johnson’s amendment directs the Department of War to develop and implement a comprehensive strategy to strengthen defense industrial cooperation with U.S. allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific region. It aims to move beyond limited prior directives by identifying concrete actions and priority systems to enable deeper joint development, production, and sustainment.

It is important to both reinforce ongoing efforts with Taiwan while expanding the scope of cooperation to encompass the broader region. China’s sphere of influence does not stop with Taiwan, and the U.S. must pursue a more comprehensive, region-wide strategy in response.

Johnson introduced this provision as an amendment to the NDAA, which was adopted and included.

Prohibiting Men from Competing in Women’s Sports at Military Academies:

Title IX was established to ensure equal opportunities for women in sports, and allowing biological males to compete in these categories directly undermines the intent of the law. While the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has failed to implement policies that adequately protect female college athletes, Congress has direct oversight of our nation’s military academies. This issue is not hypothetical—just last year, women’s volleyball teams were forced to either forfeit matches or compete under unfair conditions against teams that included biological males on their rosters.

Johnson’s Protection of Women in Sports at Military Academies Act prohibits biological males from competing in women’s sports at United States military service academies.

Johnson’s legislation was introduced in June. U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville introduced identical legislation in the Senate.

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GOP Senate on track to confirm a record number of nominees – clearing 90% of the civilian nominee backlog

While Senate Democrats attempt to obstruct government, Republicans in the US Senate led by South Dakota Senator and Majority Leader John Thune are on track to confirm a record number of nominees, according to Fox News:

Senate Republicans inched closer to history Wednesday after blowing past yet another procedural obstacle on their way to confirming nearly 100 of President Donald Trump’s nominees.

As part of their mad dash from Washington ahead of the upcoming holiday recess, Senate Republicans advanced a tranche of 97 of Trump’s picks. The 53-47 party-line vote puts the GOP one step away from confirming the batch of nominees.

Read that here.

The Senate reports that they’re going to approve 417 total confirmations in 2025– clearing +90% of the civilian nominee backlog.  In year 1: Joe Biden got 41% of his civilian nominees, while Trump in his first term got 57%.

Johnson Votes to Lower Health Insurance Premiums by 11%


Johnson Votes to Lower Health Insurance Premiums by 11%

Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) voted to pass the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, which makes targeted reforms to health care costs.

“Obamacare made health care unaffordable for the American family. Many families are paying more for their health insurance than they pay for their mortgage or rent,” said Johnson. “The program has become riddled with waste, fraud, and abuse, which only drives prices higher for those trying to do right. The Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act will fix a broken system and provide more options for people who are struggling to make ends meet.”

The Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act:

  • Lowers premium costs through cost-sharing reduction payments.
    • Appropriates cost-sharing reduction payments to stabilize the broken system and individual market.
    • Lowers premium costs by 11 percent and reduces out-of-pocket costs like deductibles and copays.
  • Brings pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) transparency and removes hidden costs of prescription drugs.
    • Requires PBMs to provide employers with clear, detailed reporting on prescription drug spending, including rebates, pricing, and formulary decisions.
    • Provides employers and employees with the transparency they deserve to help lower premium costs and improve access to prescription medications.
  • Allows small business owners and independent workers to form association health plans.
    • Expands access to Association Health Plans (AHPs) by allowing small employers and self-employed workers to band together across industries to access more options for more affordable, higher quality plans.
    • Strengthens bargaining power for small business owners and independent workers by giving them access to group rates, more provider networks, and alternatives to costly small-group or individual marketplace plans.
  • Provides more choices for employees to customize their health care plans.
  • Protects small businesses from costly regulatory overreach.

Background:

  • In 2025, the average family paid $27,000 in health insurance premiums. These premiums are increasing 26% in 2026.
  • Big insurance is making record profits. Their profits are 600% higher than when Obamacare became law.

Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Obamacare:

  • A recent report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) showed significant risk of fraud exists with the premium tax credit.
  • In the course of GAO’s investigation, 100% of fake applicants were approved in late 2024.
  • 18 out of 20 fake applicants are still receiving subsidized coverage for 2025.
  • CMS approved coverage with no documents or with fake ones, including fake citizenship papers.
  • One Social Security Number was used on applications totaling over 125 insurance policies—the equivalent of 71 years of subsidized coverage.
  • In 2024, 66,000 Social Security Numbers had more than one year’s worth of subsidized coverage in a single year.
  • In 2024, health insurers received $94 million in taxpayer-funded subsidies for deceased individuals.

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Rounds Secures South Dakota Wins in Final NDAA

Rounds Secures South Dakota Wins in Final NDAA

Bill now heads to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) and Chairman of the Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, released the following statement on the Senate’s passage of the final National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. This is the 11th NDAA that Rounds has helped author as a member of SASC and the 65th consecutive NDAA passed by the full Senate.

“The NDAA is an important piece of legislation passed annually to authorize funding for national security programs, as well as support for our servicemembers and their families,” said Rounds. “This year’s NDAA authorizes funding for construction projects at Ellsworth Air Force Base and funding for a facility for the Watertown Army National Guard. It also authorizes a 3.8 percent pay raise for troops and has a total topline of $900.6 billion in defense spending. This keeps our military ahead of the curve, making certain they never enter a fair fight and always have the advantage over our adversaries.

“The NDAA is a great example of what we can accomplish when we work together. I’m grateful to have worked on this legislation from beginning to end for the 11th year in a row. I look forward to President Trump signing the NDAA into law.”

In March, Rounds was named as the 6th most effective member of the United States Senate on defense and national security issues for the 118th Congress. Read a list of his provisions in this year’s NDAA below.

Rounds’ South Dakota Victories:

  • Fully authorizes the B-21 Raider program, including over $2.59 billion for procurement and $862 million in advanced procurement.
  • Authorizes $378 million in military construction projects to support the B-21 Raider housed at Ellsworth.
    • $63 million for B-21 Flight Simulator 2.
    • $71 million for B-21 Alert Facility.
    • $75 million for B-21 Environmental Protection Shelters.
    • $88 million for B-21 South Environmental Protection Shelters.
    • $81 million for B-21 West Alert Apron & Environmental Protection Shelters.
  • Authorizes $28 million for Watertown Army National Guard Vehicle Maintenance Shop.
  • Requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to find ways to partner with communities, universities, and industry to establish Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities (SCIF). This has been a major priority for many South Dakota universities and defense companies seeking to establish or deepen their relationship with DOD.
  • Updates the State Partnership Program so that the number of states a partner has is factored into decision-making for additional, new partners. This will directly benefit the South Dakota National Guard.
  • Modifies the Defense Community Infrastructure Program in order to make South Dakota schools more competitive in receiving grants.
  • Requires the DOD to give military families clear, timely information about relocation resources when they receive orders to relocate.

Rounds’ Major National Defense Victories:

  • Authorizes $10 million for Advanced Materials and Manufacturing for hypersonic weapons.
  • Authorizes $5 million for Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.
  • Requires Cyber Command to develop a roadmap and brief Congress on their industry collaboration for developing A.I.-enabled cyber capabilities. The roadmap will include: new collaborative R&D opportunities with industry, strategies for industry engagement, how to implement objectives and milestones, how to transition technology from development to operation, infrastructure requirements and assessment of organizational structures.
  • Creates an Artificial Intelligence Futures Steering Committee. This establishes an Artificial General Intelligence Steering Committee in the DOD to analyze AI trajectories and develop DOD adoption strategies with Deputy Secretary of Defense and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as co-chairs.
  • Protects the dual-hat leadership arrangement between U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.
  • Provides authority to the Department of Defense and military to conduct military operations in defense of critical infrastructure.
  • Requires a bomber aircraft force structure and transition roadmap, to include training packages and other measures, to make sure our bomber crews are as well-trained and equipped as possible.
  • As part of the major acquisition reforms, enables the military to acquire technology-supported consumption-based purchases and contracts (e.g. using Uber rather than buying a car; using cloud services, etc.).
  • Modifies the reporting requirements of the Senior Military Advisor for Cyber Policy now that the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy had been established.
  • Establishes a Chaplain Corps and Chief of Chaplains for the Central Intelligence Agency.
  • Establishes criminal penalties for “gate-crashing” intelligence community (IC) facilities and establishes criminal penalties for individuals trying to unlawfully enter IC facilities.
  • Requires the Department to provide a report and briefing to Congress on cyber and network security policies regarding full content inspection, to include A.I. capabilities to be included in the program.
  • Requires budget coordination of the Cyber Mission Force to increase mutual support between U.S. Cyber Command and cyber elements of the reserve component.
  • Implements significant DOD cyber personnel related reforms to include establishing a Cyber Excepted Workforce (CEW) Interchange Agreement and increased flexibility regarding the pay and benefits for cyber personnel.


Rounds-Supported Victories
:

  • Authorizes funding to support a 3.8 percent pay raise for military members
  • $1.5 billion for new construction of barracks and family housing
  • $50 million in Impact Aid assistance
  • $147.7 billion for tech innovation, including hypersonics, AI, quantum computing and new space-based capabilities.
  • Prohibits men in women’s sports at all military academies.
  • Requires all military promotions to be based entirely on merit and demonstrated performance rather than race, ethnicity or sex.
  • Permanently repeals all existing DEI offices, programs, training, activities and authorities in the Department of Defense.
  • Provides conservative wins by cutting programs that hamper/don’t increase lethality:
      • $40.5 million from eliminating DEI activities
      • $1.6 billion in cuts to climate change-related spending
    • $6.8 billion from reductions in unnecessary Pentagon bureaucracy
    • $5.5 billion in cuts to consulting and service contracts
  • Supports President Trump’s Golden Dome for America initiative by updating our homeland missile defense policy and funding air and missile defense development and testing.
  • Authorizes full funding of our modernization of the nuclear triad, which includes the B-21 Raider, and is the foundation of our deterrence.
  • Requires the Navy to implement a strategy to address cost and schedule problems with our ship and submarine industrial base, to include the use of A.I. to optimize maintenance and supply chains.
  • Requires the DOD to establish an AI Task Force to develop an A.I. sandbox environment to support A.I. experimentation, training and model development for users of all technical levels.

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Senator John Thune Applauds Passage of Annual Defense Policy Bill, Ellsworth Air Force Base Priorities

Thune Applauds Passage of Annual Defense Policy Bill, Ellsworth Air Force Base Priorities

“[T]his bill strengthens the important role that South Dakota plays in keeping our nation safe by continuing to prepare Ellsworth Air Force Base for the arrival of the B-21 Raider and authorizing a new facility for the South Dakota Army National Guard in Watertown.”

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) today issued the following statement after the Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026, which includes significant provisions for Ellsworth Air Force Base, the forthcoming B-21 bomber mission, and the South Dakota Army National Guard in Watertown. The legislation also makes the most significant transformation of defense acquisition in decades to restock munitions, ensure warfighters have access to the best technology available, and advance the Golden Dome for America missile defense system to protect the United States. The bill now heads to the president’s desk to be signed into law.

“This year’s NDAA builds on the historic investments that Republicans delivered in the One Big Beautiful Bill to support our service members and ensure our country has the fighting force necessary to deter our adversaries and promote peace and stability,” said Thune.

“In addition to authorizing a well-deserved pay raise for our service members, this bill strengthens the important role that South Dakota plays in keeping our nation safe by continuing to prepare Ellsworth Air Force Base for the arrival of the B-21 Raider and authorizing a new facility for the South Dakota Army National Guard in Watertown,” Thune continued. “I’m pleased the Senate gave this important legislation the time and attention it deserves this year, and I’m glad we were able to get it across the finish line.”

The NDAA includes key priorities that will benefit South Dakota:

  • Fully authorizes the B-21 Raider program, including over $3.4 billion for procurement;
  • Authorizes $378 million in military construction projects to support the future B-21 Raider mission at Ellsworth Air Force Base;
  • Authorizes $28 million for a South Dakota Army National Guard Vehicle Maintenance Shop in Watertown;
  • Requires a “bomber roadmap” detailing bomber force structure, modernization, and transition plan for fielding the B-21;
  • Modifies the Defense Community Infrastructure Program to better address quality of life needs of military families;
  • Supports munitions production, leveraging South Dakota industries; and
  • Authorizes robust munitions production for the B-1 and B-21.

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Mary J. Fitzgerald Launches Re-Election Campaign for District 31 House of Representatives

Mary J. Fitzgerald Launches Re-Election Campaign for District 31 House of Representatives

Saint Onge — Representative Mary J. Fitzgerald (R) announced today that she is running for re-election to the South Dakota House of Representatives, vowing to continue delivering results and standing up for the South Dakota values that matter most.

“Serving this community is an honor I never take for granted,” Fitzgerald said. “I’m committed to protecting our freedoms, supporting our families, and ensuring government works efficiently for the people of South Dakota.”

Known for her accessibility and no-nonsense approach, Fitzgerald has built a reputation for results-driven leadership. She has passed multiple pieces of legislation focused on public safety, government transparency, and protecting constitutional rights. Her work includes strengthening penalties for violent offenders, ensuring convictions for sexual assault cannot be erased, protecting Second Amendment rights for law-abiding gun owners, increasing transparency in public meetings, fixing inconsistencies in DUI laws, and safeguarding volunteers of nonprofit organizations.

Growing up on a South Dakota farm, Fitzgerald learned the value of hard work and the importance of community. She has been a consistent advocate for agriculture and rural communities, championing limited, accountable government and responsible budgeting. She has also supported strategic investments in infrastructure to keep communities and the economy strong. Reducing property taxes and cutting government spending remain top priorities in her next term. People are asking for help and Rep Fitzgerald hears their call and takes that responsibility seriously.

A firm supporter of education, Fitzgerald said: “Education is the greatest investment we can make in the future of our communities. When we give our youth the tools and opportunities to succeed, we create stronger economies and brighter futures.”

Fitzgerald previously served two years on House and Joint Appropriations and currently serves on House Judiciary and House Local Government. She holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting and business administration and lives in Saint Onge with her husband, John H. Fitzgerald, a 4th Circuit Court Judge. They have three grown children, all graduates of BHSU and the USD School of Law, and six grandchildren, all living in western South Dakota.

Fitzgerald is a former Vice-Chair of the South Dakota State Republican Party, former Lawrence County GOP Chair, and a member of the Daughters of the American Revolution (DAR). Rep. Mary Fitzgerald can be reached at 605.641.2045 or mary.fitzgerald@sdlegislature.gov. Fitzgerald is asking for your support on June 2nd in the Republican primary election. Voters can learn more by visiting her Facebook page or her website at Fitz4House.com.

Vote to dissolve Oldham-Ramona-Rutland School District vote currently tied.

Not sure anyone could have predicted this outcome. But the vote on whether or not to dissolve the Oldham-Ramona-Rutland School District, which would bus school children out of the area currently stands at a tie vote – 363 votes for and 363 votes against.   According to a story at KELOland.com:

The unofficial election results are in for the Oldham-Ramona-Rutland School District and there’s still not a complete answer on the future of the school district. With 363 votes for dissolving the district and 363 votes against dissolving the district and 5 provisional ballots cast, leaving the fate of the district unknown.

and..

According to a fact sheet from the ORR school district, if the district dissolves, there would be 42 employees who will be fired and 193 students that will have to go elsewhere for schooling. The sheet added that the board has canceled their current construction contract for $19 million that would have built a new school. The sheet also stated that no capital outlay certificates will be issued and no tax increase related to the construction is planned.

Read the entire story here.

(Maybe it’s a good time to re-watch Casey Phillips’ documentary about tie votes in elections; Win, Lose or Draw Straws.)

As we move into economic conditions that place us in danger of recession, it seems counter-productive for 3 small communities to ship their kids – nearly 200 of them – to larger towns for schooling, and to fire 42 employees.  For these communities that don’t consist of much, there’s a real danger that they’re soon going to consist of a lot less.

If they succeed in killing the local schools… well, if that happens, at least if Abby Bischoff ever decides she wants to fire back up her “Abandoned South Dakota” website and calendars, she’ll have plenty of new subjects to photograph.