On September 16, CNN will host the second major GOP Presidential Debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library hosted by Nancy Reagan. Similar to the debates on Fox, there will be a “prime-time” debate consisting of the “top 10” candidates and an “under-card” debate consisting of the remaining candidates who are polling above 1%. Seems clear enough.
According to realclearpolitics.com (an average of recent polls), the top seven are: Trump, Bush, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Cruz & Fiorina with Fiorina at 6.3%. Clearly, if you were to draw a line, this is the top tier candidates.
The next three are Paul, Kasich & Huckabee all at 4.3% and Christie is outside looking in at 3.3%.
The next tier begins with Perry (1.3%), Santorum, Jindal, Graham, & Pataki. However, only Perry & Santorum are at 1% or higher. The rest barely register making the under-card a group whose total support is less than 3.3% (lower Christie who is the first candidate above this group). In fact, if they all dropped out, the movement of support to the other candidates wouldn’t even be noticed in the polls.
But it is what it is. Or is it?
Then when you read the selection criteria of CNN, Fiorina is out of the “prime-time” debate and Christie is in. What the heck?
- How can the #7 person in the polls be out and a person with half her support be in (Christie)?
- More importantly, how can the person who has jumped the most in the polls since the last debate and arguably the winner of both debates (only Carson & Rubio can make a case if considering movement in the polls)?
CNN’s selection criteria includes debates which go back to July 15th (a month before the Fox debate) when Fiorina was registering 0% and 1% in the polls. Since the debate, she has been polled 5%, 5% and 9% beating Paul, Kasich, Huckabee, & Christie all scheduled to be in the next debate.
In fact, when you realize that the criteria includes three polls with Fiorina at 0% and one at 1% (all from July), mathematically Fiorina would have to poll in the top 4 (8-9%) from now until the poll deadline of September 10th to beat out one of the candidates polling at 3-4%.
Yes, I feel sorry for Rick Perry being designated to the “under-card” debate but hopefully it will give him a chance to shine and maybe bust into the top tier. In my mind, Rick Perry is the star in this group and has run a good campaign especially relative to those in his “tier.” Similarly, Chris Christie is statistically tied with Paul, Kasich, Huckabee and maybe doesn’t deserve to be bumped down as Fiorina bumps him to 11th place.
But, if Carly Fiorina is denied the “prime-time” stage, that is a travesty. Mrs. Reagan, how about giving Carly a “sponsor’s exemption?” Channel a bit of your husband!!
Historical background: In a 1980 Presidential primary debate moderated by a local New Hampshire paper because federal campaign law at the time prevented newspapers from paying for the venue, the Reagan campaign paid all the debate expenses (including the microphones). The paper wanted the debate to be limited to Reagan and Bush because they were the “favorites.” Reagan thought denying Howard Baker, John Anderson, Bob Dole et. al. a chance to participate was unfair and thus what you see on the attached YouTube video.
Ronald Reagan in New Hampshire, 1980