Well, I don’t think anyone was expecting this:
A new KELOLAND Media Group/Emerson College poll has a new leader in the Republican primary race for South Dakota governor.
Businessman Toby Doeden now holds a 3% advantage over second-place U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson. Doeden has 26% of the polled voters to Johnson’s 23%. The two switched places from the poll released on March 11 when Johnson had the lead with 28% followed by Doeden with 18%.
In this latest poll, Gov. Larry Rhoden was at 19% followed by state Rep. Jon Hansen with 16%. These are gains from the Rhoden’s 17% in March and Hansen’s 14% in March.
Those results seem to be an outlier, and far, far different than any other polling I’ve heard, including whispers of internal polling. I mean, they all show Hansen in last place, but for Doeden to have any advantage over Dusty? I’m a doubting thomas.
As one politico remarked to me unsolicited this morning “There is n F’n way the new KELO poll can be accurate. Most people I talk to say anyone but Doeden.” And I would tend to agree.
So until the next poll…
Of course the politico said “anybody but Toby”. Increasingly the sentiment from my friends (not political people at all) is “anybody but Dusty”. I think Dusty went too negative.
Dusty loses to Rhoden/Hansen in a runoff but could beat Toby.
This would have been a good year for Billie to run.
Anybody but Dusty is a real thing. Dusty entered the race near his ceiling. He’s maxed out so to speak. I think it’s gonna make for a heck of a race down the stretch
Well, Dusty started doing the hard work of rightly promoting himself as the alpha, the most capable, the most visionary, the most in tune with the best of state government of the past few decades. THEN the pacs and out-of-state ad gurus created for him the same old stale campaign that got him pigeonholed as a goofy lightweight nerd who only knows how to sling distortions and mud, and hide behind his nice-guy Barney Fife image. NOT a surprise at all that there’s a realignment of fortunes present in the current pigeon entrails being probed.
I know people who are for Dusty and anyone but Dusty. The question is do these anti Dusty voters coalesce. I know a lot of people sitting on their votes trying to figure out who the alternative is to Dusty.
Just The Facts about a guy who says ““Let’s be clear about what this is: corporate welfare. Taking money from taxpayers and handing it to private corporations”
Ask Toby About 120 million + forgiven COVID loans he got when Car Sales were up over 30%- actually car sales rose WAY higher in Sd in 2020/21. (Isn’t the loan corporate welfare.by Toby’s definition).
Ask Toby about his $4.7 Million TIF Isn’t the TIF corporate welfare.by Toby’s definition).
Ask Toby about his Campaign manager Hurley who has current unpaid Civil Judgments of at least $2 Million & other outstanding financial & Civil Lawsuits in Naples Florida. The same Hurley whose significant other is the treasurer of the Dakota Action Pac that Toby founded in 2024.
SD is smarter than DC Dusty. Not falling for the corrupt big spending, elites. Dusty will sell out the state with no questions asked. And turn us into Colorado or Minnesota and DC. Please vote for anyone but Dusty.
Corrupt big spending? As opposed to Doeden taking millions in PPP loans? Hansen paying himself from SDRTLs funds as a “consultant”? Rhoden using state resources to pseudocampaign before running?
Get over yourself.
Democrats pushed to shut down over nothing as a business owner it is important to do what is needed for workers. Dusty will be all for data centers, pipelines that are pushed to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Toby with fight the elites not work with them.
Name one business of Dipshit Doeden that was affected by COVID shutdowns. Also explain how he was forced to close any business of his, while he only owns businesses in a state that did not have any mandated shutdowns.
Toby IS an elite. He’s spending millions of his own money. You got millions laying around?
Neither did he, until he took the COVID money. Your tax dollars.
Democrats wanted masking and social distancing, not shutdowns – while the MAGA wanted the superspreaders that got a lot of people infected and un-alived.
Kristi Noem made sure we had enough respirators, and being locked to one of those might have killed more people than Covid too.
Somebody doesn’t understand PPP loans.
We do know for a fact he bought up a shitload of real estate during the PPP era.
Rhoden looks like he’s the guy right now. If he can get to a runoff he wins easy. Big IF.
Plenty of dusty supporters took PPP loans. not an effective line of attack.
We’re talking about the candidates themselves. If you’re all huffed up about supporters, that’s another story.
Dusty supported and voted for the cares act in 2020 which included the ppp loan……. So how did Tobey create that problem? Seems some aren’t very educated on the topic. DC Dusty created that one, but he can solve all the problems he created? Typical DC politician. Vote for anyone but dusty he has had his chances and has produced nothing valuable.
Ridiculous!!!!!!
I seem to remember doubting Thomas was proven wrong…
Will the Big Beautiful Bill, DOGE, non support of the War Powers Act with this endless war, Tariffs, horrendous nominees be a liability for Dusty being a Trump enabler? The economy is tanking and our key highly sophisticated weapons were depleted to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
It is surprising Doeden would lead this latest poll or even be a contender with the history he has but then again this is the age of MAGA which historians will refer to a low point in US history.
If Doeden wins the nomination how many will vote for Ahlers in the general?
Your supposition is Mr. Ahlers’ wet dream.
Ahlers laughing.
Ahlers laughing.
the economy is tanking? The DJI closed at 50,285.66 this afternoon.
SpaceX is having its IPO next month. It’s expected to be huge.
Millennials, who borrowed obscene amounts of money to attend private liberal arts colleges and haven’t bothered to get married, are now complaining that home ownership is out of reach.
Yes, buying a home is difficult when you are buried in more debt than you can pay off and you’re single. This is not news to any of the generations which preceded them, but apparently it’s a surprise to them. It doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with the economy,
Anonymous says:
May 21, 2026 at 9:57 am
“our key highly sophisticated weapons were depleted to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan”
Care to explain when this happened?
The new endless war with Iran.
You are obviously a mindless democrat.
So are you but what am I?
We’ve had ten years of Trump; the last six of those have included insurrection, destructive riots, physical and extortional threats on the legal system; the last 17 months have been jam packed with open looting of the system and massive corruption from Trump and his closest cronies.
Jon Stewart this week noted Nixon got frogmarched for Watergate, and under Trump we have a new Watergate-level crime every day, stacking up. Very true.
Leave it to South Dakota to nurse a ten-year-old longing to have a Trump of our own in Pierre, and IN SPITE of the weight of evidence to the idiocy of this, say now to pollsters YAY I WANT A SMART BUSINESSMAN WHO ISNT BEHOLDEN TO ANYONE TO RUN THINGS AND DRAIN THE SOUTH DAKOTA SWAMP. Really? Now? After seeing how badly that goes? How we are lied to?
Knock yourselves out, Doeden fans. Please.
I’m being honest when I say I don’t know what would be worse, a doeden administration or a Hansens administration?
You are bolth obviously Democrats. This is about the Republican primary.
Republican here. Can you identify a single economic metric that is positive? The chickens are coming home and I’m not sure I would want to be aligning with Trump when November comes around.
My real question is if this poll is even somewhat accurate. How will this impact some of the legislative races. Here in District 3, Katie Washnok, Spencer Sommers, and Tim Hanigan are all riding the coattails of Dusty’s campaign. This will actually bode well for the two incumbents Representative Al Novstrup & Senator Carl Perry.
The Brown County Republicans are hosting a Candidate Forum on Tuesday from 4-6pm at the K.O.Lee Library. That week is also the week of Boys State and Congressman Johnson and Governor Rhoden are scheduled to be town for that. At the end of the week Toby will have his rally taking place at Mulligan’s.
Which booth will Toby’s Rally be at?
Consider Mulligan’s is a small restaurant on North 281. I’m guessing he’s likely going to have to shut down his own restaurant for this rally. You do have to RSVP in advance on his official website.
I wouldn’t go to that BCGOP Forum – how is that a real forum? Drew Dennert is the moderator and his PAC gave 10k to manhart…. Then he’s the neutral moderator for Manhart? That’s a sham of a debate and I hope the candidates boycott.
I agree. Boycott it.
It’s about as impartial as the Doeden radio network in Aberdeen.
The silly fake forum is just a set up. Nobody going there is undecided. Nobody organizing it is unbiased.
I got a text offering a chance to participate in the Emerson poll. But it looked like potential spam so I didn’t click on the link. I am a Dusty supporter.
I am sorry for you supporting such a fake
Worry about your own incredibly bad choices.
I did. I said I was voting for Dusty in the primary but Dan in the general.
I think the “politicos” are gonna be in for a shock June 2nd when they find their friend, poli-sci lifer Dusty Johnson, coming in 2nd or perhaps even 3rd in this race.
Doesn’t the poll say about 50% republicans, 25% Democrats and 25% undecided were polled ? How can that be accurate when only Republicans can vote in the primary ?
They polled R’s for the primary question and Dems for other questions. They did not ask Dems who the would vote for in the gop primary.
Come in South Dakota!
We ARE dumb enough to elect Doughboy!
I haven’t heard of any primary watch parties yet. Anyone know if the candidates, GOPs, or the Republican Women will be hosting watch parties this year?
Those on here always complaining about PPP loans you must not remember that dusty johnson created that problem he supported and voted for the cares act in 2020. FACT
All 96 Senators and all but 5 Representatives voted for the CARES Act…………Nothing to see here, move along.
Correct another career politician who just goes with the flow and burns tax payer money. You make a great great point don’t elect any of them again in any office, they are all puppets and reckless
I’m more concerned with the career politicians at the local/state level (Hansen.). They have done far more damage here on the home front.
Toby says he’s a leader just like Trump, though. Why are you not backing him?
People are tired of phony smooth-talking career politicians, which is why Trump is so popular. We have 3 votes in our house that are going to Doeden. Rhoden is our second choice. Although we believe we cannot go wrong with any of the 4 choices, we want someone who will support our President and will not make nice with crazy liberal policies just to get along with both sides. Dusty is the worst for that. We like Doeden because he is self-made. Knows how to work hard, put in long hours, and run a successful business.
I like a lot of what Toby’s saying. I just don’t believe him. I feel like it’s the classic used car salesman style overpromising.
I know I can trust Larry.
Toby is not self made. He stole PPP funds, got TIF money, and backing from the Chinese. He was also set to buy a business in Aberdeen gave the owner the check and when the owner saw Chinese letters on it he ripped it up and said deals off.
A vote for Rhoden is a vote for Doeden. Dusty all the way!
But serious… if you are a somewhat normal Republican then you should vote for Dusty. For our sakes let’s get him over the finish line so we don’t have to listen to political ads all summer.
For you who are complaining about the negative ads, toughen up. They are all doing it.
Let us hope the Conservatives with Common Sense advertising committee approves a recent ask for some fancy teevee ads. They will probably be very positive, touting the best.
I was one of the participants in this poll and I want to know what was the answer to the one question about Noem.
Would you support Kristi Noem’s comeback into S.D. politics? Yes or No
That is what I want to know.
Support 21.9
Oppose 67.0
Not sure 11.1
The full survey results are on Emerson’s website
I bet Brian Lewis is regretting jumping from Gov.Doeden’s campaign to that loser Hansen & Lems.
What a bad decision.
A vote for rhoden is a vote for doeden…