Release: South Dakota GOP Joins Fight Against Amendment V’s Out-of-State Millions

sdgopSouth Dakota GOP Joins Fight Against Amendment V’s Out-of-State Millions

Pierre, SD – November 3, 2016 – South Dakota Republican Party Executive Director Ryan Budmayr announced that the South Dakota GOP is committing funds to combat the millions of dollars in dark, out-of-state money that has poured into South Dakota to support Amendment V.

“South Dakota’s Constitution is worth protecting from Amendment V’s out-of-state, anti- transparent attack. That’s why we are committing funds to support the local effort to combat this effort and encourage South Dakotans to Vote No on Amendment V,” said Budmayr.

The South Dakota Republican Party is committing $70,000 to Vote No On V, the local effort to oppose Amendment V. $70,000 represents around 6 percent of the amount contributed to push Amendment V by the out-of-state group Open Primaries. To date, this New York group has contributed more than $1.12 million to the effort to overhaul South Dakota’s Constitution. The South Dakota Republican Party, unlike Open Primaries, discloses the source of its funds.

“Our contribution may pale in comparison to the millions in out-of-state, special interest money given to push the measure, but we believe it will help to inform South Dakotans about Amendment V’s attempt to hide information from voters and make us more like California,” Budmayr added.

Following the pre-general campaign finance report, Proponents for V had raised more than $1.5 million. 85 percent of the funds raised to support Amendment V came from outside South Dakota.

No On V, the local effort to oppose the Constitutional change, had raised more than 99 percent from South Dakota donors.

In addition to the South Dakota Republican Party, the South Dakota Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the South Dakota Association of Cooperatives, South Dakota Farm Bureau, Governor Daugaard, Senator Thune, Senator Rounds and Congresswoman Noem have all joined to formally oppose this outside effort and encourage South Dakotans to Vote No on V. 

Contact Ryan Budmayr, Executive Director of the Republican Party, at 605-777-0467 with any questions.

##

Down to the wire State Senate Predictions. Dem’s take a hard hit, after an abysmal campaign effort.

It’s time for more armchair quarterbacking in the 2016 elections, as we take a shot at predicting the State Senate races from the hundred mile view. The big story in the Senate will be the hit that Democrats take in the campaign, as there’s practically no good news for them, and the potential for an even more historic low number of their group in the upper chamber.

D

Rep

Dem

Other

Predictions

Notes

1

 

Frerichs

 

Dem Over

 

2

Greenfield

 

 

GOP Over

 

3

Novstrup

Heidelberger

 

GOP

People don’t elect people who want to raise their taxes. 

4

Wiik

Tyler

 

GOP

Tyler didn’t run 1/2 the race she had 2 years ago, and Wiik was prepared for a tough race he didn’t get. 

5

Tapio

 

GOP Over

6

Otten

Boese

 

GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

7

Tidemann

Perpich

 

GOP

Tidemann was prepared, and Perpich did nothing, and will be rewarded accordingly. 

8

Youngberg

Parsley

 

GOP

The word on the street is that Youngberg has this won. 

9

Peters

Koch

 

GOP

Replacement candidate who never took off. 

10

Haggar

Powers

 

GOP

Challenger made effort, but Haggar should pull through fine. 

11

Stalzer

Cool

 

GOP

Cool never got hot. 

12

Curd

Sanden

 

GOP

Curd is fine

13

Kolbeck

Pierson

 

GOP

Denny Pierson grasped at straws, but his days are long gone by. 

14

Soholt

 

Swanger

GOP

Swanger made effort, but Soholt knows how to campaign, and did so. 

15

 

Nesiba

 

Dem Over

 

16

Bolin

Skiles

 

GOP

Bolin is a campaign
machine. It’s over.

17

Rusch

Merrill

 

GOP

Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill never gave a reason to replace him

18

 

Kennedy

Dem Over

19

Nelson

Graef

 

GOP

One of most GOP districts in state

20

Klumb

Berg

 

GOP

Berg made a few of us nervous early, but he was never more than a placeholder this time.

21

 

Sutton

 

Dem Over

 

22

White

Bliss

 

GOP

Is it a rule that Dem replacements are all mediocre?

23

Cronin

 

 

GOP Over

 

24

Monroe

 

 

GOP Over

 

25

Langer

Barth

 

Toss Up/Lead GOP

The only toss-up left. But, GOP has heavy voter advantage. Word is Barth isn’t confident.

26

 

Heinert

 

Dem Over

 

27

 

Killer

 

Dem Over

 

28

Maher

 

 

GOP Over

 

29

Cammack

 

Kindler

GOP

over.

30

Russell

LaRive

 

GOP

LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River
County. It’s over.

31

Ewing

 

 

GOP Over

 

32

Solano

Hubbard

 

GOP

Solano has turned out to be a good competitor. Hubbard never had a chance.

33

Jensen

Stuck

 

GOP

Phil for the win. 

34

Partridge

 Schultz

 

GOP

Over

35

Haverly

 

 

GOP Over

 

I’m going to optimistically predict that the Senate is going to come down to a 29-6 split, with Senate Dems consisting of Frerichs, Nesiba, Sutton, Heinert, Killer and Kennedy, dropping their numbers two as they lose seats they held centered around Madison/Flandreau and Milbank.

Admittedly, even if they can keep what they held in the 2015-2016 session, that’s only 8, which consigns them to near irrelevancy. That might be optimistic, but it’s the best they could possibly hope for, because the numbers are not in their favor.

Why is the outlook so bleak for South Dakota Democrats? First off, the South Dakota Democrat party has managed to coordinate the absolute worst effort for their legislative candidates that I think I’ve seen in nearly 30 years. It’s as if they absolutely abdicated their role as a political party, discarding it for – and it’s a familiar fault – concentrating on ballot issues. They put time and money into those issues while their efforts at candidate recruitment and funding floundered miserably.

As we come to the end of the 2016 election cycle, it’s all to evident that Ann Tornberg and Suzanne Jones Pranger have managed to take a vehicle already driven into the mud and encapsulated it even further in mediocrity. (So it is even more hopelessly stuck).  And that bodes poorly for Democrats as they get manicures in preparation of their biennial ritual of pointing fingers and blaming everything but the root cause of their failure – the inability to conduct themselves as a political party, find candidates for office, and help them to run competent campaigns.

As the first hints of dawn are approaching for 2018, when they need to start the whole thing over again in a campaign season where many statewide offices are going to be up for grabs, botching this election was a grevious error. And one that just put them that much farther back on having people queued up on the bench ready to join the big leagues.

Initiated Measure 22 would provide candidates a party. Not a political one, but a parrrtay!

Initiated Measure 22, Rick Weiland’s Politician Welfare act, helping to support those poor politicians by providing them taxpayer funded campaigns is not just a proposal in South Dakota. They have managed to pass taxpayer funded political campaigns in other areas.

So, what exactly would IM 22 bring South Dakotans political parties. But not the GOP/DEM type. The type with party beads, candy, and more. From the Maine Press-Herald:

“These may be legitimate campaign expenses, but it really doesn’t seem to be the best prioritization of taxpayer money to buy things like robocalls and junk mail,” Brakey said. He said that compared with traditionally financed candidates who collect most of their money from individual donors, those taking state funds for their campaigns can easily forget who is actually footing the bill.

and…

Dunlap, a traditionally financed candidate, is running against Saviello again. She has raised just $750, with $700 of that coming from a donation she made to her own campaign. And according to Dunlap’s most recent campaign finance reports, she has spent just over $59 on supplies for a get-out-the-vote headquarters in Rangeley. That left her with $139 to spend as of Oct. 25.

Saviello, by contrast – and within the rules of the program – has collected $62,000 of public campaign cash, spending $43,083 on his campaign, including $213 for party beads to toss out during a parade and $88 for candy.

Saviello said Wednesday he follows the rules, and that he can’t take re-election for granted.

“The first time you make an assumption like that you’re dead in the water,” said Saviello, who is seeking a fourth term. He said he has always thrown out party beads during parades, and noted that other politicians give out little American flags that are often left behind on the ground after a parade. “And that doesn’t seem right to me, either,” he said.

Saviello also has used his public funds to equip a campaign office and staff it with volunteers, which he said he did to ensure he’s doing his homework and is prepared to counter any last-minute political maneuvers by his opponent or her supporters.

screen-shot-2016-11-03-at-10-32-08-am

Read it all here.

So, if you want taxpayers to foot the bill for tools, Chinese takeout, and party beads, by all means, pass IM 22.

If you think candidates can pay for themselves, then you should probably VOTE NO on the Politician Welfare Measure, IM 22.

“The Green Bay Packers never lost a game. They just ran out of time.” (Vince Lombardi)

Three nights ago, the Cleveland Indians were up 3 games to 1 on the Chicago Cubs and I pretty much counted them out. As a Twins/Nationals/Rockies fan, I really don’t have a dog in the fight. But, I love baseball so I’m still interested and will watch the game tonight.

Yes, the Cubs had two better pitchers scheduled in games #5 & #6 but not so much better it was a slam-dunk they’d win these two must-win games. And, for the 7th game, the Indians have the better pitcher scheduled on the mound. Three nights ago, Vegas oddsmakers gave the Cubs about a 15% chance of winning the World Series. Now, after winning two games in a row (25% chance they would win both games), the oddsmakers have the Cubs at a 45% chance of being the World Champions. It’s game on!!

Three weeks ago, the Billy Bush/Donald Trump tape came out and I begged for Trump to drop out and let us take our chances with Mike Pence. When the tape came out, Nate Silver handicapped Trumps chances at less than 15% (roughly equivalent to the Cubs odds three nights ago). Personally, I thought it was high. I reacted as I did with the Cubs and said “game over.” I almost entitled this thread “To win, you’ve got to stay in the game” (Claude Bristol). NOT!

Five things have happened in the last week which I didn’t expect (could have also entitled this “Skip, what are we gonna do about those numbers? They suck.” from the movie Perfect Storm):

1) The Wikileaks released emails provide a smoking gun on how the Clintons parlayed the Office of the Secretary of State to enrich the Clinton personally to the tune of what could be over $50 million. This is what I think is most significant because it goes beyond being a political fibber (the public seems to expect or at least tolerate political fibbing) who spins everything or says anything to curry favor with the voters. Personal graft and enrichment is beyond acceptable to a very large segment of the voting public.

2) This is what I think should have been the most insignificant. The FBI informed Congress they were re-opening the investigation into Hillary’s use of a private server. Comey said he’d keep Congress informed if he got new information. He got new information. And, he was clear he didn’t know if the information was significant and would report back. Should have been the end of the story.

3) Hillary totally badly muffed her reaction. She should have said, “Director Comey has a job to do and is accountable to both the President and Congress. I’m confident when they get through the new information the conclusion of a few months ago will be confirmed. Director Comey is an honorable public servant.” This response would have given the impression she was truly confident there is “nothing new” and would have matched her words “there is nothing there.” Additionally, it would have reinforced her earlier praise of Director Comey. Instead, the disconnects were palpable. She basically violated the Cardinal Rule of corporate crisis management. Twice. And reinforced she might not be trustworthy, her biggest weakness.

4) The Press went bonkers on the letter which belied how much they are in the tank for Hillary and it reinforced Trump’s message the system is rigged.

5) After watching great points and positions get lost in too many shallow bromides or distracting ramblings, Trump got on message AND presented it concisely and cogently. On Monday, Trump and Pence laid out a powerful case for a Trump Presidency, in particular replacing Obamacare and how his economic plan serves the interests of ALL Americans in ALL walks of life. It was so moving, I almost drove to Canton to vote just in case I got hit by a bus between then and Election Day. Frankly, I think this might in the end be more significant than even #1 above.

Today, Nate Silver updated his handicapping of the President race Trump a 30% chance of winning (assumed Hillary leading in the polls by 4%). He also did an analysis which assumes Hillary is leading by 2%. While he didn’t complete the math, I did and and a 2% Hillary leads changes the odds of Trump winning to slightly above 40%. Nate Silver’s latest analysis can be read here

Personally, I think Silver’s methodology masks a slight hidden disadvantage for Trump. Before the polls started to move last week, 20% of the votes were cast via early voting and Hillary was ahead by roughly 5%. Assuming early votes reflected the national position, Hillary has banked what translates into a 1% advantage. Trump has to move the population past even and make-up this 1% disadvantage.

Well folks, the current realclearpolitics.com race has Trump behind less than 2% and he clearly has the momentum. A few weeks ago, he was down 7%, narrowed it to 5.4%, and it is now under 2%.

Whether he can continue to move the voting public or there is enough people open to being moved, I don’t know. But, it appears Hillary doesn’t have the game to stop the momentum. Her recent acts of desperation, including bringing back Alicia Machado to the forefront, aren’t gonna get the job done.

The Cubs know they have at least 9 innings and maybe more.

Donald Trump is behind and has six more days and nothing more. I hope its enough time and Trump/Pence uses the time well.

There is a chance and its no longer a long-shot.

UPDATE: Cubs win. Trump do the “impossible” too? Well, Hillary seems intent on muffing again.

Out of State group literally trying to buy election when it comes to Amendment V

From KELOland comes the story on how the liberal out-of-state interests have done their darnedest to try to but the election on Amendment V – Putting nearly 1.3 MILLION into the ballot measure which would hide party affiliation on the ballot, and to eliminate independents from the fall election:

The campaign finance report — filed with the Secretary of State’s office for “Yes on V” — shows a massive amount of money coming from out of state, $1.3 million.

Those against the measure say that money is evidence that V is an out of state plan that’s wrong for South Dakota.

and…

According to finance reports, the Yes on V group — which supports those changes — has taken in a lot of out-of-state money. More than $1 million came from an organization called ‘Open Primaries.’

“This donor does not disclose their contributors. It’s a dark money organization and they want to come in and buy a policy that would keep you in the dark,” chairman of Vote No on V Will Mortenson said.

Read it all here.

And if you want to look at it yourself…

Vote Yes on V by Pat Powers on Scribd

That’s the first time I’ve seen that on a South Dakota political resume. Would you vote for a stay-at-home dad over a business owner?

On occasion, there are a few female politicians who have listed their occupations as housewife on their political resume.  But, this is the first time I’ve seen “House husband” or it’s equivalent “Stay-at-home dad” for a candidate who is seeking office.screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-2-12-35-pm

Of course, as written in the Aberdeen American News this AM, it had to be Cory Heidelberger who is running for the District 3 State Senate seat.

You don’t hear a lot about non-traditional “stay-at-home dads” in South Dakota. I’m quite sure Cory is be the first one to run for the legislature. It isn’t without controversy, as there are some who recommend against stay-at-home dads, as noted in this recent article in Time Magazine:

Research suggests the penalty may even be greater for men who temporarily exit the workforce. One study found that dads who left work for even a short period of time to cater to domestic matters earned lower evaluations and more negative performance ratings at work than women who opted out.

Single-income families are also at a higher risk of financial collapse, as one might guess. Researchers at Hope College and Cornell University found that, “Not only are two wages often necessary to adequately provide for the needs of most families, dual-earner couples are less economically vulnerable than single-earner families, for whom a layoff can mean financial collapse.”

A single-income household can also result in more stress for her. As it stands, wives who earn more admit to feeling more pressure to “make it all work,” especially when it comes to the family’s finances.

Read it here.

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-2-18-04-pmBut, if his wife can support their family on her pastor’s salary, I suppose that’s between husband and wife.

Politically, it brings up an interesting point, given that it will pit house husband Heidelberger up against a long-time Aberdeen businessman, Al Novstrup, who owned a computer business before he became owner of Thunder Road in Aberdeen and Sioux Falls.

Novstrup is employer who contributes to the tax base of two communities, and has experience meeting a budget, paying sales and other commercial taxes, hiring & firing employees, etc.

The question is, who’s skill set is going to be more appealing to the voters.