All of that work for the past 2 years is going to come to fruition today. It’s time. If you haven’t voted yet, get out there and do so.
And here’s your opportunity for your predictions on how the races are going to go.
On the races.. here are mine..
US Senate:
John Thune (R) – 68%
Brian Bengs (D) – 28%
Tamara Lesnar (L) – 4%
I think Lesnar and Bengs will hold Senator Thune under 70%. But just barely.
Congress:
Dusty Johnson (R) – 80%
Collin Duprel (L) – 20%
Duprel will have more than a single digit showing just because of the contrarian vote, but not because of anything he did. It’s just that there are always people who will vote against the incumbent. Dusty may reach as high as 85%, but I don’t want to be overconfident. I’m sure he’ll be just as happy with 80%.
Governor:
Kristi L. Noem (R) – 56%
Jamie Smith (D) – 40%
Tracey Quint (L) – 4%
Repeat after me. Jamie Smith is not Billie Sutton. Jamie Smith is not Billie Sutton. In Noem’s first race for Governor, she had just come off of a bruising primary, and then faced a Democrat who pretended to be conservative. There was no such hurdle in this election.
Noem’s 2022 primary race had her as a more reasonable candidate against a hard right opponent who had one of the worst run primary opposition campaigns in recent memory. Now, in the fall, her opponent Jamie Smith didn’t bother to try to be conservative, and instead just ran as a Democrat. And Kristi got to point that out over and over against an ineffective Smith campaign that never found it’s footing, as much as running a campaign who’s only point was that he wasn’t Kristi.
When your closing message is that “it’s ok to vote Democrat..” It shows how inept his campaign was. That’s not really a message to make the case to change their vote. If anything, it reinforces his identification with the minority party that keeps shrinking in the state. And let’s not forget the utter gift Smith gave the Noem campaign when Smith declared in a forum at the Sioux Falls Rotary “we need more things to tax.” A perfect soundbite message highlighting his willingness to do just that. And a message his opponent Kristi Noem put to good use, as she had the money to pound it into voter’s minds. Over and over and over.
Smith will do well and be competitive in his home of Sioux Falls, but as the votes move across the river, I have the feeling this race will not resemble the last one.
Constitutional offices:
I think we’re in pretty safe territory for all Republicans, as Democrats put up little (or no) opposition with the exception of Secretary of State. That race will be closer than the others, but it will still be in the win column.
State Senate:
The question here is how many aren’t we going to win.
Losses…
I think we will have Democrat wins in 10, 15, & 26.
- In 10, the electoral math turned it into a hard Dem district. Unless the Democrat is so unknown or unlikeable, Democrats will push her through.
- In 15, it’s now a Republican District, but after decades upon decades of not being a Republican area, it’s a hard sell. We’re up against an established Senator in Nesiba, and while I’d like it, I think it could be a nearly impossible lift this year.
- 26 was doubtful before Joel Koskan, now even Republicans are telling people to vote for someone else. Scratch that race.
Closer to the wire..
- District 1 might be tight in the Rohl/Wismer rematch, as I’m told she is pouring buckets of money into the race. But with Rohl having the upper hand, and an actual record of accomplishment, and Wismer not only screwed up her petitions and having to run as an indy, but she was utterly ineffective when she was there before, and Rohl came in as a breath of fresh air. I think we win this one.
- District 12 could be another tight contest. Arch Beal/Jessica Meyers is a race that some are pointing to as being close. But I think Arch wins this. He has tremendous name ID as well as sign coverage all over the place. For as long as people have voted for Arch, I’m not sure Meyers has made the case to choose someone else.
- I think District 27 is on the bubble. David Jones/Red Dawn Foster was always going to be a tough race, but from what I hear, Jones is very visible, while Democrat incumbent Red Dawn is not.
I give Republicans 2 of these three races.. but if we’re in a wave election where Republicans turn out, and Dems stay home.. I’m crossing my fingers we pick up all three.
Let’s cut it off there. What do you think about these races, as well as what is coming in the House of Representatives? Your predictions, Please.