State Representative Jim Stalzer has his petitions out. But not for the State House. I’ve had it confirmed tonight that this member of the State House Delegation for District 11 is circulating his petitions for the upper chamber of the State Legislature.
He’s not challenging current Senator David Omdahl, as much as Omdahl is tagging Stalzer in, so Omdahl can pursue other things. Stalzer tells me this evening that he was holding off to give the good Senator an opportunity to change his mind, as the District 11 delegation gets along fairly well, and it’s a shame to see any of them go. For both Stalzer & Omdahl, 2016 is their 4th year in the legislature.
Keep an eye peeled on the legislative races, as the campaign news just keeps on coming!
(Dems still don’t have a sacrificial lamb for the US Senate, BTW)
Governor Daugaard presented his State of the State address today, with an increase in teacher salaries serving as it’s centerpiece. From the Argus:
Gov. Dennis Daugaard proposed South Dakota’s first sales tax increase in more than half a century Tuesday to help lift the state’s rock-bottom teacher salaries.
The Republican governor told legislators in his State of the State address that a half-cent sales tax increase would raise about $107 million and allow the state to increase its last-in-the-nation teacher salaries from the current average of $40,000 a year to a target of $48,500. Any surplus would go toward property tax relief.
“This is the year. This is the year to get out of last place. This is the year to act. Let’s join together this year to strengthen our schools and keep our promise to the next generation,” Daugaard said.
What was the response from the State’s minority party, the Democrats? Predictably, when you get down to it, they said they would make a better-er proposal……… by spending twice as much!
“A recommended funding source for the needed $122.5 million of new funds could be a one-penny increase in the state sales tax. This would raise $220 million on an ongoing basis”
WASHINGTON—U.S. Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a member of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, today made the following statement after the committee approved the nomination of Michael Missal to be Inspector General of the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA):
“The VA hasn’t had a permanent Inspector General for over two years. During that time, the VA has been plagued with scandal and mismanagement, and our veterans have been paying the price,” said Rounds. “They deserve better from their government. It is my hope that a new Inspector General will help regain trust in the VA, and provide accountability for the Department’s policies and management.”
The Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee held a prior hearing on Missal’s nomination in November 2015. He now awaits confirmation from the full Senate.
I had it confirmed today that as earlier noted as a possibility, current District 16 State Representative Jim Bolin is circulating petitions to run for the State Senate Seat in his district, potentially setting up a primary challenge to recently appointed State Senator Bill Shorma, who took office this past year after State Senator Dan Lederman resigned from the seat.
At the time the Governor made the appointment, outgoing Senator Lederman had recommended Bolin for the post, but he was passed over for Shorma. Bolin greeted the appointment with congratulations for Shorma, but did make a point of leaving the door open for a run:
Rep.Bolin (R-16)
I look forward to working with him on areas of mutual concern and interest. In 2015, the governor very legitimately gets to decide who will be the new state senator for District # 16. In 2016, the voters in District # 16 will very legitimately decide the same question.
A primary challenge would be Shorma’s first race against the campaign veteran Bolin. If you recall from back in may, I asked Shorma what he was going to do in preparation for the race:
Sen. Shorma (R-16)
While I do need to collect signatures, I will not be starting a campaign effort until after the 2016 legislative session. However, in preparation for my first session it is only 7 to 8 months away, I will visit with as many folks in the district as I can about their wishes, thoughts and interests. I will be reaching out to Small and Medium sized manufacturers and listen to their employee’s about their thoughts on issues that affect them and their families. I will be visiting with Agricultural producers to understand the challenges that they are facing or support that they may need.
With Bolin entering the contest, that may have Shorma re-calculating his strategy. Bolin, who has served in the legislature from 2009-2016, and currently serves as one of the House’s majority whips, is no slouch when it comes to the campaign trail. Bolin was first elected to the Canton city commission with almost 75 % of the vote and shortly thereafter became the mayor following a public vote to change the form of government in the city.
Following his time as mayor, Bolin was elected to the South Dakota House of Representatives. In the midst of this time, he has also worked in various volunteer grassroot campaign efforts for the GOP.
Depending on what happens, this could be one of the more hard fought primaries taking place this coming June.
Programming Note – Join Kristi Noem on Neil Cavuto tonight
Rep. Kristi Noem will be previewing President Obama’s final State of the Union address with Neil Cavuto on the Fox Business Network tonight at 8:30PM-ET/7:30PM-CT/6:30PM-MT.
AFP Reacts to Governor’s State of the State Address
“Medicaid Expansion Under Obamacare Too Risky To Be Lumped In With The Rest Of The State’s Priorities,” Says State Director Lee
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Americans for Prosperity South Dakota reacted with disappointment to Governor Daugaard’s announcement of his plan to expand Medicaid in his 2016 State of the State address.
State Director Ben Lee released the following statement:
“While the state legislature absolutely should be working towards furthering policies that increase access and decrease the cost of healthcare, the Governor’s plan to include Obama’s Medicaid Expansion in the 2016 budget just isn’t what the doctor ordered. The risks of this plan are serious — and they deserve to have their own debate away from the fog of budgetary gimmicks. Only with two clean votes: one on Medicaid Expansion and one on the budget, can citizens be sure that their lawmakers are doing the right thing. Medicaid expansion is just too risky to be lumped in with funding for critical state priorities like schools and roads.”
“Expanding Medicaid under Obamacare would expand the national debt by $373 million a year while shackling the state to Obamacare’s terms funding and conditions. Even worse, should the federal government ever change its mind about the funding formula, the state could be put at risk of cuts to school and roads, tax increases or all three!”
WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) today previewed President Obama’s final State of the Union address while citing many of the burdens placed on the American people by the Obama administration.
Remarks (as prepared for delivery):
“Mr. President, tonight President Obama will come to Congress to deliver his final State of the Union address.
“Which raises the question – what is the state of our union?
“And the truth is, while the strength and spirit of the American people remain a beacon of hope for our future, our country is facing a number of serious challenges:
“Global unrest has grown over the course of the president’s administration, most notably with the rise of ISIS, one of the most brutal terrorist groups in existence.
“On President Obama’s watch, we have experienced the worst economic recovery since the Eisenhower administration, with stagnant wages and millions dropping out of the labor force as the lasting trademark of the Obama economy.
“And American families are seeing their dreams for the future erode, as they struggle under ever-increasing government burdens and a lack of economic opportunity.
“Any serious discussion of the state of our union needs to address these challenges and offer solutions.
“And that is the kind of speech I wish we were going to hear tonight.
“But unfortunately, all indicators suggest that’s not the kind of speech the president plans to give.
“Instead, the president apparently intends to take a victory lap – despite the fact that the American people clearly don’t think there’s much to celebrate.
“A recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that 68 percent of the American people think our country is on the wrong track, and most Americans believe the next generation will be worse off, not better off.
“In a preview of the president’s speech, the White House notes, and I quote, ‘we have made extraordinary progress on the path to a stronger country and a brighter future.’
“But that’s not how the American people are feeling.
“And it doesn’t reflect the reality of the president’s administration.
“The president plans to talk about his supposed economic successes tonight.
“But while our economy has recovered to a certain extent since the recession, it has never fully rebounded.
“Wage growth continues to lag.
“December marked the 77th straight month in which year-over-year hourly wage growth was at or below 2.5 percent.
“Underemployment also continues to be a problem, with millions of Americans continuing to work part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
“Almost five years after the recession ended, the percentage of Americans working full time has still not returned to pre-recession levels.
“While the most commonly mentioned unemployment rate is 5.0 percent, the U-6 unemployment rate, which measures the number of both unemployed workers and underemployed workers, is 9.9 percent.
“Of the unemployed, those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more — or those considered long-term unemployed — make up 26 percent.
“And labor force participation remains near record lows.
“In short, stagnation has become the new normal for the economy under the Obama administration, and economic opportunities for American families have been few and far between.
“And in addition to the lack of economic opportunity, families have had to shoulder new burdens thanks to the Obama administration.
“Chief among those burdens, of course, is Obamacare, the president’s disastrous health care law, which has failed to reduce the cost of health care, ripped away millions of Americans’ preferred health care plans, forced families onto insurance plans they don’t want and can’t afford, reduced patients’ access to doctors and hospitals, increased taxes, and wasted billions of taxpayer dollars.
“Then there are the burdensome regulations the Obama administration has imposed, which have made it more challenging for businesses large and small to grow and create jobs.
“The Obama Environmental Protection Agency in particular has done more than its fair share to make things difficult for Americans.
“During the course of the Obama administration, this agency has implemented one damaging rule after another, from a massive national backdoor energy tax that would hurt poor and working families the most, to a new rule that would subject ponds and puddles in Americans’ backyards to a complex array of expensive and burdensome regulatory requirements.
“Again and again, I’ve heard from South Dakota farm and ranch families, homeowners, and small businesses about the difficulties they’re facing thanks to the Obama EPA’s massive new regulations.
“Mr. President, if the president’s record on the economy and middle-class opportunity is bad, his record on foreign policy is even worse.
“A White House preview of the State of the Union touts the president’s work to, and I quote, ‘redefine American leadership for the 21st century.’
“During the president’s last year in office, the White House says, and I quote, ‘we can show the world what is possible when America truly leads.’
“Republicans couldn’t agree more that America should truly lead – the problem is that the president’s first seven years in office have generally been distinguished by a lack of leadership.
“Back in June, former President – and fellow Democrat – Jimmy Carter described President Obama’s successes on the world stage as ‘minimal.’
“‘On the world stage, just to be objective about it as I can,’ Carter said, ‘I can’t think of many nations in the world where we have a better relationship now than we did when he took over.’
“Neither can I, Mr. President.
“The White House claims the president has ended two wars, yet neglects to mention that since the U.S. withdrew from Iraq, large sections of the country have descended into chaos thanks to ISIS.
“The president’s failure to enforce his red line in Syria when President Bashar al Assad used chemical weapons on his own people and the president’s lack of a strategy to defeat ISIS have contributed to a massive refugee crisis with no easy solution.
“Meanwhile, Assad remains in power and ISIS continues to thrive.
“With the terrorist attacks in Paris in November, ISIS officially expanded its theater of operations beyond the Middle East.
“And as we witnessed in the case of the San Bernardino shooting, as long as ISIS continues to exist, its demented ideology will inspire disturbed individuals to commit acts of terror.
“The United States is in desperate need of a comprehensive strategy to confront the threat posed by ISIS, yet the president has so far made no move to develop one.
“On another foreign policy front, the president has repeatedly touted his nuclear deal with Iran as one of the major foreign policy achievements of his presidency, yet the agreement he signed actually improves Iran’s long-term prospects for developing a bomb.
“And in a clear violation of UN restrictions, Iran recently tested a ballistic missile, demonstrating once again that it has in no way curbed its aggressive behavior.
“Elsewhere, Russian aggression has increased on the president’s watch, and North Korea recently conducted yet another nuclear test.
“Mr. President, the Obama administration has left the American people with a host of problems at home and abroad.
“But once again, it sounds like President Obama’s State of the Union address will fail to offer any substantive solutions.
“More than that, it sounds as if the president will largely ignore the problems.
“And that’s unfortunate.
“The president is missing an opportunity to offer substantive solutions before turning the problems of his administration over to his successors.
“Mr. President, I don’t want to give credence to those Obama administration accusations that Republicans are all ‘doom and gloom.’
“As I said above, I believe that the strength and spirit of the American people mean that the future in America is always bright.
“But realizing that future requires understanding and developing solutions to the problems facing our nation, and that’s something the president is unwilling to do.
“Mr. President, Republicans have worked hard over the past year to make our economy stronger, our government more efficient and accountable, and our nation and our world safer and more secure.
“But there’s a lot more work to be done.
“And we need a partner in the White House who’s willing to meet us halfway.
“We hope the president will use this last year of his presidency to work with us as we seek to address the challenges facing the American people.”
Attorney General Jackley to Address U.S. Chamber
as National Attorney General President
PIERRE, S.D – South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley as President of the National Association of Attorneys General will deliver the Wednesday morning keynote address to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for Legal Reform at their annual meeting on January 13, 2016 in Florida.
“The National Association of Attorneys General understands that businesses are critical components to building healthy economies and strong communities. This is an excellent opportunity to address workforce development, consumer protection, data privacy and our Presidential Initiative, ‘To Serve and Protect with 21st Century Policing’. I also intend to discuss the significance of South Dakota’s balanced budget without a state income tax,” said Jackley.
This annual meeting includes general counsel and directors of governmental affairs from U.S. Chamber members and businesses throughout the United States.
I was chatting with a politico this morning who was remarking on the dismal voter registration numbers for Democrats, when he pointed out that right now, Republicans in South Dakota outnumber Democrats by around 70k votes. And he used Stephanie Herseth as a benchmark of how Democrat fortunes in the state have risen and fallen.
If you look at 2004, when Herseth won over Larry Diedrich in the fall, the DEM/GOP gap was around 47,000 fewer Democrats than Republicans. In 2010, when Congresswoman Noem won, the gap was actually narrower….
Republican
Democrat
GOP v. DEM
IND, Etc.
Total
2004
238,530
191,523
-47,007
72,158
502,261
* Herseth Won
2010
237,809
194,204
-43,605
85,932
519,361
* Noem Defeated Herseth
1/5/2016
237,636
167,272
-70,364
108,766
513,674
* Present Day
Difference between 2004 & Today
-894
-24,251
-23,357
36,608
11,413
The 2010 race was a hard fought contest, which flies in the face of thinking it’s based on just a simple numeric supremacy. Incumbency can play a significant factor, as I think we’d all agree. But you have to give the “strength in numbers” theory as affecting the race some credence as well.
Looking at Congresswoman Kristi Noem’s dominance between 2010 and now…
2010
Candidate
Vote %
Votes
Noem>Opponent
Republican
Kristi Noem
48%
153703
-7114
Democratic
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
46%
146589
2012
Candidate
Vote %
Votes
Republican
Kristi Noem
57%
207640
-53851
Democratic
Matt Varilek
43%
153789
2014
Candidate
Vote %
Votes
Republican
Kristi Noem
67%
183834
-91349
Democratic
Corinna Robinson
34%
92485
The numbers that Congresswoman Kristi Noem continues to post in her election margins continues to be more and more impressive. As the GOP registration numbers have accelerated past those of Democrats, look at Noem’s margin of victory.
In fact, if you overlay the raw numbers, her margins of victory are climbing even faster than that of GOP registration:
Republican
Democrat
GOP v DEM
Noem>Opponent
10/18/2010
237,809
194,204
-43,605
-7,114
11/5/2012
243,113
189,493
-53,620
-53,851
11/3/2014
240,545
176,169
-64,376
-91,349
1/5/2016
237,636
167,272
-70,364
We shall see….
In 2010, when facing an incumbent, she managed a 7114 vote margin when we had a 43,605 advantage. In 2012, her margin and the party registration advantage was almost identical. In 2014, not only did she beat the party registration advantage, she left it in the dirt with numbers that were fully 141% of that party registration advantage.
I think we’d all agree there’s factor of incumbency to take into account, which explains why Noem’s advantage over Herseth’s in the face of stronger GOP numbers was what it was. But ever since, Noem has taken full advantage of that widening voter registration, and added to it with ever widening electoral performance.
What does this mean for Paula Hawks in the 2016 race for South Dakota’s Congressional seat? Nothing but bad, bad news.
Democrat numbers dwindling ever further, and Congresswoman Noem’s ever increasing electoral dominance represents an effective combination that we can say with confidence means that Hawks stands no chance to win, place, or show.
The only question is how big the margin of victory is going to be. Will Noem be able to win by a 90,000 vote margin again? Or will Hawks keep her at a 50,000 vote margin?
Both Congresswoman Kristi Noem and US Senator John Thune have their petitions distributed to the GOP faithful, with many of them receiving them this past week via the US Postal service. In case you’re interested, except for the petitions themselves, here’s what went out:
I haven’t heard hide nor hair of petitions being circulated for signature for Paula Hawks yet. One of my correspondents thinks there’s an even chance that the congressional run may not actually happen. But, we’ll know more about that when we see some fundraising figures for the last quarter in the next few coming weeks.
And still no petitions…… or fundraising…… or hints of anything regarding a candidate from Democrats for the US Senate seat. I’m kind of thinking you can stick a fork in that potato. It’s done.
Rounds Statement on VA Inspector General
Programming Note – Join Kristi Noem on Neil Cavuto tonight
AFP Reacts to Governor’s State of the State Address
Thune: Obama Victory Lap Flies in the Face of Reality
Attorney General Jackley to Address U.S. Chamber