Emerson College was just in the field conducting polling in the South Dakota Governor’s race this past weekend, and came up with some unexpected results, showing that while Congressman Dusty Johnson maintains the lead in the contest, the down-field candidates are shifting on the board, and it remains anyone’s race:
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released on Wednesday showed Johnson in first place with 28 percent, with businessman Toby Doeden with 18 percent, Gov. Larry Rhoden at 17 percent and state Rep. Jon Hansen (R) at 14 percent. A separate 23 percent said they were undecided.
The poll also found that the economy was seen as the top issue facing the state at 35 percent, followed by threats to democracy and housing affordability at 13 percent each, education at 11 percent and health care at 9 percent.
“Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden, who came into office after Kristi Noem was appointed to the Trump administration, faces a difficult election campaign as Rep. Dusty Johnson has garnered plurality support ahead of the June primary,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a press release.
Read the entire story here on The Hill.
This is interesting that voters had shifted that hard away from Governor Rhoden, who while reaping the benefit of being the chief executive during session.. he’s been mired down in Pierre during session. And his legislative initiatives have met with some success, but not complete victories.
In polling in the last 30 days from more politically geared pollsters, there were fewer undecideds, and Rhoden enjoyed a wider lead from Doeden, up to around 8 points. But in this informal touchpoint, they have him within the margin of error from the car salesman from Aberdeen.
Of course, Dusty has led all polls at least 10 points or so up from the next candidate. And in both recent tests, Hansen hovered at the bottom of the spectrum, garnering 10% in the prior poll, and jumping up to 14% in this one.
In this and the other poll I’ve seen, there are big undecideds still in the race. Which means the winds could blow differently at the time of the next test of the waters.
When you alienate state employees, educators and nurses with your budget – that is a lot of voters.
It’s not like Doeden would do jack for them though.
Doeden can set his sights on Dusty. That should scare Dusty and make Rhoden smile.
Except Rhoden, from Morning Consult poll, has an 81% approval rating amongst SD Republicans. And has had nearly $0 spend.
He has spent plenty of money, it was just your tax dollars hauling him around the state.
Except Rhoden, from Morning Consult poll, has an 81% approval rating amongst SD Republicans. And has had nearly $0 spend.
Approval rating and a 4-way poll are two completely different things. Just because someone has a high approval rating does not correspond to doing well in a poll.
I wonder how much, if any, Noem’s struggles are impacting Rhoden.
Polls are garbage. There’s no way Dusty is #1, people in the state hate him.
Yet he keeps winning, and consistently tops popularity rankings, as well as raves for his office’s service, etc.
You don’t like Republicans. We get it.
WRONG!!! Only you dems do as he is a wonderful statesman for SD and the US.
There is a large misconception in South Dakota that the loud voices speak for the majority.
This is correct. If it was about the loud voices only, Jon Hansen would have a double digit percentage lead.
Boy isn’t that the truth! Hansen and Odenbach have been some of the least effective leaders in the House of Representatives for quite some time. They are on the losing end of the majority of bills. If Hansen cant rally a simple majority to get his interests passed in Pierre is it safe to say his visions for South Dakota are flawed?
The largest property tax relief package in a generation just passed and is headed to the Governor.
Spot on analysis, otherwise!
And it increased taxes to do it. A massive shift is not going to be all that popular.
I think you misspelled “tax shift package.”
and those loudmouths are the ones who will go to the convention and trash Dusty, after he has won the primary
Which is why he would be nuts to pay for the convention, totally nuts..
“People” hate Dusty? Or is it the people you associate with?
Who are you kidding!! : >) Dusty is one of the best legislators to ever come out of SD!! He is brilliant, positive, honest, hard working, educated in all matters concerning the best for SD, with a sense of humor to boot. He understands state and national government, and how they work together, which none of the others do. Gave him our donation, took his yard sign and look forward to one of the best governors SD has ever seen!!
I’m surprised Tubby Doeden is doing so well.
He’s got millions to set on fire.
Millions of taxpayer dollars to burn. Some from his biggest all in one video lottery casino, booze, tobacco and vape shop in A-Town
And planning another $7,000,000 of negative, manure ads. When you can’t advertise your own positives, that’s what you are left with!
Has the Doeden campaign proven yet how they intend to discover real life Unicorns, successfully domesticate, breed them and set up a new South Dakota exclusive livestock industry to fund Toby’s new Department of External Revenue?
He is telling voters property taxes will be eliminated, grocery taxes and whatever other taxes commentors complain about will be eliminated. Toby is telling them anything they want to hear. Where have we heard Toby doing this before? Oh yeah! The Aberdeen Chrysler Center sales floor.
What’s the margin of error, and what do the cross tabs reveal to nuance these results in the demographic data? If the margin of error is +/- .5 percent, Doeden’s slight advantage is meaningful. If it’s +/- 3 percent, then it’s not. A swell of Doeden support shows what a Trumpish media campaign can bring forth among the MAGA looking for their own little Trump because it “feels” right. This is the USA of today.
Actually, this poll has a larger margin of error. Plus/minus -4.8.%
Excellent. Thank you. Rhoden could be marginally ahead, but more likely in a dead heat or trailing.
The Dems have Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold running.
How many Independent candidates for Governor will make the ballot?
is Robert Arnold distantly related to Kristi Noem?
Dusty needs to get wait….ALL the undecideds to win a runoff. LMAO
When do people advertise their low IQ so much?
Here’s something that will make you look smarter: https://sdlegislature.gov/Statutes/12-6-51.1(35% runoff threshold)
35% gets you to 2 candidates and the runoff. Now add 32 % to Rhoden for the runoff. there’s your race
You must be a Doeden supporter. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.
Seems the debates should tamp this Toby support down. Rhoden will need a good showing but it should shift back his way for 2nd.
Really? Rhoden can’t speak off the cuff without prepared statements while Toby can rattle off whatever people want to hear with nothing to back it up while bashing all his opponents. You know, like a certain presidential candidate in 2015.
Not true. Rhoden speaks so much better off the cuff than with a prepared speech. So much better!
Rhoden hasn’t advertised yet. And he just got passed the largest property tax cut. Seems like this poll doesn’t tell you much.
He doesn’t have the money to advertise. He’s got taxpayers footing his trips, but nothing in terms of fundraising.
And the more he travels, the worse he does.
If I were him I wouldn’t advertise his tax increase to gain support.
*a tax shift. No taxes were cut.
For those who do not own a home, this was a very large tax increase. They are now paying MY property taxes. If they show up to vote, Rhoden doesn’t stand a chance.
What I have noticed: people are mad at Larry for not spending more on education, as well as everything else they think the government should pay for, and simultaneously complaining that their taxes are too high. Too many voters are both ignorant and angry, (“ignorangry”) and Toby is pandering to them.
Hold on a minute here:
At first you read the story and assume the poll was likely gop voters only right?
According to the story,” the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was conducted from March 7-9 with 1,000 likely South Dakota voters surveyed. The margin of error is 3 percentage points. The survey included 413 South Dakota Republican primary voters with a margin of error of 4.8 points.”
So were the other 587 people included in the poll d’s and i’s? Did they breakout the R’s from the rest?
The story also says that the number 2 issue on minds of voters was “threats to democracy,” in a GOP primary?
I’d like to see the cross tabs and breakdown on this.
For the Republican races, they only counted the Republicans votes.
Interesting that Pat left that out of his “reporting”.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/154ddue8X9jNTWp12PGLmbgjvz4NrVlKl/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=107857247170786005927&rtpof=true&sd=true
Something seems awry. In a recent national poll by Morning Consult, Rhoden had an 81% approval rating amongst SD Republicans. This doesn’t jive, I agree.
Logically you wouldn’t factor Democrat results into a Republican primary preference poll, you would just want likely voters. It’s disclosed in the Hill story, by highlighting the specific number of Republican respondents in the 1000 sample. The smaller sample drives the higher +/-4.8 percent margin of error on that question.
Democrats have a real chance, especially in Billy Sutton would enter if Doeden can get nominated.,
If Doeden is our nominee and Sutton enters the race, Sutton will be our next governor.
Doeden is too narrow focused, Hansen and his minion Rodent-bach are too crazy and ineffective and Rhoden just shafted state employees and the education system meanwhile Dusty is actually presenting a plan and positive ideas. If you do the math…It adds up.
Elwood, you are among the ignorangry mob.
The state constitution requires a balanced budget, and as of July 1, 2023, it requires the state to provide Medicaid coverage to adults aged 18-65 with incomes less than 138% of the FPL. An 80-hour per month work requirement will go into effect next year, which at minimum wage ($11.85/hr) is not enough income to disqualify someone for the coverage. 138% of the FPL for a single person is $21,597/year. If a single person worked 160 hours a month, his annual income would be $22,752, and he would not qualify for Medicaid coverage.
Of course the state must not require single able-bodied adults to get full-time jobs!!! That would be cruel!!
So now that the state is required to provide Medicaid coverage to single, able-bodied adults who don’t want to work 160 hours a month,
the legislature has to fund it whether the money is available or not.
At the same time, the state constitution requires the state to provide a system of public schools, but there is no requirement to have a school every 30 miles or within walking distance of every child or in every town, They only have to have a system. . And it doesn’t even have to be a good one.
What this means is, Medicaid went to the head of the line, it costs whatever it costs, and all other functions of the state government get the scraps.
The voters have spoken, Medicaid is more important than Education now. This issue went directly to the voters, not through the Capitol. .
The legislative and executive branches did not make that decision, the voters did. As George Carlin allegedly said “never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
Does Hansen ever drop out and endorse Rhoden? To box out Doeden or is that fantasyland stuff?
Well, he’s gone up from 10% to 14%. Maybe he can hit 18% by election day.
With that in mind does a runoff seem possible with the top 2?
I would be willing to bet that many Hansen voters will switch to Doeden if Hansen drops out. Sanity begs Hansen to stay in the race. It’s Rhoden who needs to drop out, his voters will support Dusty..
Who in their right mind gives money to Rhoden now?
Gut punch!
There are other more reliable polls…
A Doeden primary win will put the remaining Reagan-style republican voters in a quandary. They can’t in good conscience vote for Doeden; that’s abhorrent. They can’t vote Democrat; that’s unacceptable.
A new poll of registered republicans should be done asking “if Doeden wins the primary will you:”
1. Vote for Doeden
2. Vote for the Democrat
3. Not vote for governor
4. Other
I already decided I will not run for precinct committeewoman because if Doeden wins the primary I will NOT campaign for him. I will NOT wear his t-shirt, walk in parades, man the booth at the fair, make phone calls, do lit drops, and all the other stuff the precinct committee people are supposed to do in the run-up to the general if he is the nominee. I just can’t.
If Doeden wins, we are in trouble. He knows nothing about education, tourism, agriculture,…. He’s voted how many times, one? Hasn’t voted in a primaryand as he said himself, he was never even interested in politics until the last 2 or 3 years. He thinks he ‘s another Donald Trump but DT was very involved and on top of world issues when he was young. Trump has always been concerned about our country, not just himself. Doeden isn’t even close to DT. Look what happened to the SDGOP. It went downhill so fast because wannabes took it over and ruined it. What a laughing stock! Doeden would destroy all the hard work those that came before him created. SD would be a laughing stock along with the Republican party. Thanks Freedom Caucus!
Don’t forget Doeden’s history well documented on Dakota War College including that despicable rally in Sioux Falls promoting a self described Black Nazi, those who attended and donated to the event!
Will Doeden change his “I’m a Trump Conservative”, “I’m just like Trump, etc, etc” TV commercials when Trump announces his endorsement of Dusty Johnson? As much as Dusty has done to help further Trump’s agenda, this has to be coming and it will be a confusing day to Doeden when Trump endorses. I mean, Doeden said the day Trump got shot in Pennsylvania is the day he felt destined to run…………or was that the heartburn/gas that he experienced at the West River church disguised as God digging into the pit of his stomach as he exclaimed on the pulpit that he was called to run………………. Dude is all over the place.
Doeden is perceived as governing in the mode of Donald Trump. Very well.
Trump went to war against Iran at the behest of Israel, and when asked about it, plays the “no I didn’t” game to shut down reporters.
Trump’s personal wealth was between 2 and 3 Billion dollars prior to 2024. Since winning a second term his wealth has spiked straight up to over 6.5 Billion with no signs of slowing. He openly accepts all “gifts” that come his way.
Fortune Magazine says a CBO alert reveals that for the last five months, the US has borrowed $50-Billion PER WEEK deeper into debt. They call it “not sustainable.”
Analysts agree Russia is helping Iran target and destroy our assets in the Middle East, and we are easing embargoes on Russian oil sales.
Trump and the GOP skate blithely over all of this.
TELL ME Doeden fans, what is there about any of this that you would want a SD governor to emulate at scale?