The Post-Noem Republican Party. What can we expect?
I had a note yesterday indicating that we might anticipate an announcement from Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden of his choice to serve as his own Lt. Governor tomorrow (I heard 2 people are rumored in the running, both excellent choices). Given that, along with the fact that Governor Noem’s confirmation hearing is nearly here, the time for her resignation is nigh. We are literally on the cusp of watching a historic changing of the guard, unlike anything we’ve seen in a generation.
The most comparable would be when Governor Kneip became Ambassador to Singapore mid-term, as Governor Mickelson’s death and passage of the office to Walt Miller would be in a different category and was a shock and tragedy to the entire state. Versus this current and more orderly passage of power.
And unlike the previous two times, we won’t have Bill Janklow swooping in to run for the office, as he did after both Kneip, and Mickelson. We’re literally going into a new and unpredictable era, and a lot of factors are going to shape it, many of them brand new and unlike anything that has happened before in a transition of power in state government, especially considering that what happens will immediately spill into the 2026 elections.
A New Administration Takes the Wheel
Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden is taking the office of Governor during a time of political upheaval, and significant division in the Republican Legislature. In the last election, the needle that was on the traditional Republican side of the gauge was shoved violently in the last election over to the populist side, giving a different and unpredictable faction of the Republican Party narrow control of both houses of the legislature.
The last time we had a realignment of the GOP to populist control dates back to the early 1900’s, and without going into great detail, there was a deep division that seemed to take several election cycles to heal. Now that it has come around again, in 2024, we’re in the opening days of this new group trying to find their feet. Which will work to Governor Rhoden’s advantage somewhat, as they do not exactly speak with one voice yet.
Rhoden’s first task will be to install his Lt. Governor, which requires a majority vote of both houses. (Article IV, § 6 – Whenever there is a permanent vacancy in the office of the lieutenant governor, the Governor shall nominate a lieutenant governor who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of all the members of each house of the Legislature.)
From all reports, this should be a relatively painless process and it’s expected that the Governor’s nominee to serve in the office should be confirmed without impediment. If it is one of the two candidates I am hearing, one is a current and the other is a former legislator, and both are well-liked and respected.
In terms of the administrative structure of State Government, I would not expect an immediate exodus of department heads, nor would I anticipate any significant reorganization of state government at this time. However, there will be changes. Coming during the last 2 years of an 8-year term, there will be those who naturally transition to the private sector, or other positions in other states.
State Government’s biggest changes during Governor Rhoden’s term completion will likely focus on government accountability, implementing measures proposed by the Attorney General and others in expanding the checks and balances in State Government’s systems to address a string of employee thefts and related incidents that have come to light.
Politically, Rhoden takes the lead on a broken Republican Party
The Governor has traditionally been viewed as the titular head of the South Dakota Republican Party. Unfortunately, Governor Rhoden will be taking over the lead of a party that has become increasingly disharmonious and within weeks of taking office, the organization will be selecting new leadership. And the current candidates provide no good options.
The party has been in a state of upheaval for some time. It has been inching in this direction, and we’re just around when it finally arrived.
In the last gubernatorial election cycle, there was an effort by the populist movement to install Governor Noem’s primary opponent as her Lt. Governor. The Attorney General facing impeachment was impeached the same week of the last convention and was still in the race until the last possible moment. The sitting Secretary of State was ousted in the convention. And there were demands from some delegates that they be provided refunds for attendance at all events, despite the fact it would have bankrupted the party.
In her book, No Going Back, Governor Kristi Noem wrote about the division in the Republican Party, noting “South Dakota’s GOP Convention in 2022 was an embarrassment. It was a three-day event that consisted of more Republicans attacking Republicans” and she noted that – despite people suggesting she let the party go – she wanted to help bring order to the chaos, and she did a number of things to try to bring people together, including holding an event with Trump.
That event with President Trump to benefit the party held in Rapid City was virtually boycotted by the Minnehaha County GOP leadership, and you had past Congressional primary challenger Taffy Howard claiming Trump was “being used,” and declared “I don’t want to help in any way.”
After all her efforts, Governor Noem’s conclusion in her book was “Now I think perhaps a breaking needs to happen in order for hard lessons to be learned,” and “it’s going to take… everyday folks to step up and be part of a solution. Some say it can’t get any worse. Well, maybe it needs to in order to wake up those who will finally decide to be all in for this country.”
There are plenty of people who would agree. After a frustrating two years of struggling to raise money and lead a Republican Party that had county organizations sandbagging election get out the vote efforts, or even worse – having County GOP members going out of their way to attack long-time Republicans such as Senator Thune and Congressman Dusty Johnson – I suspect it will be a long time before SDGOP Chair John Wiik steps foot in a Republican meeting again.
This kind of Republican chaos is not unique to South Dakota. It’s has happened in Kansas, North Dakota, and so many other states. It’s just our time. Unfortunately, Governor Rhoden is coming to the republican card party now and just got dealt a really bad hand. All of the current candidates running for SDGOP chair are declaring to at least some degree their desire for ideological purity and intent to scold officeholders for not adhering to the party platform as they interpret it, believing their claim over officeholders to be greater than that of the voters who elected them.
The broken Republican party means that in the 2026 election candidates at all levels are going to be forced to find other organizational support for their campaign efforts, if not be forced to create their own statewide campaign structure. It was done before as John Thune did with his Victory Campaign put together to defeat Tom Daschle, and Dusty Johnson has maintained a strong campaign staff over the past several years. This might become the rule until the party is less unruly.
Unfortunately, that’s not an option for candidates for constitutional offices, as they are selected at the State Republican Convention. And currently, that includes whomever Rhoden chooses as Lt. Governor – creating a catch-22 situation.
Moving forward to 2026
2026 will represent a change that we haven’t experienced in quite some time. We will likely have races for US Senate, Congress and Governor, with at least two of those seats not having an incumbent who has been elected to that office before.
It’s anticipated that Mike Rounds will remain in US Senate, but given the tenor of politics, he will likely have an opponent from the right in the primary.
Congress will likely see an open seat with Dusty Johnson moving to run for Governor. A number of names have popped up as possibly running including Senator Casey Crabtree, and Representative Tony Venhuizen. And this is only the start of the list, which will grow much longer in the months ahead before serious candidates get more serious, and the non-serious filter out.
With Larry Rhoden all but assured to take office as our next Governor, I’ve long heard he is in the race and working towards being competitive in the contest, which could hinge in part on choosing the right running mate to bring in Eastern South Dakota support. Dusty Johnson has long been said to be running for the contest and arguably has the most experienced campaign organization. Attorney General Marty Jackley has been said to be looking strongly looking at another opportunity to run for the office.
Plus, there will likely be others who may run for Governor. New House Majority Leader Scott Odenbach has been mentioned, which would make for an interesting dynamic, as he’s been rancorous with Dusty Johnson since their college days at USD. Toby “Dumpster-fire” Doeden keeps sending out e-mail polls including his name, so his ego may convince him to enter the contest. And there will be those we don’t expect.
And that’s just the start. I was starting to write about the down ticket races, but it was getting a little long. Suffice it to say that upon his swearing in, Governor Rhoden will be taking over a fairly stable state government well on the way of fixing some long-standing institutional problems.
But politically, Governor Rhoden is taking over a household where a storm that has been building for a number of years has finally arrived. The question is what the Republican Party’s house is going to look like once the storm has passed.
And will the residents left standing attempt to rebuild, or move on?
