Category: Uncategorized

NEW NFIB SURVEY: Small Business Optimism Declines in September  
Index Falls Two Points; Remains Above 52-year Average

PIERRE, SD (Oct. 15, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.

“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.”

“A significant 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions are affecting their business to some degree, putting pressure on inventory and costs here in South Dakota,” said NFIB South Dakota State Director Jason Glodt. “If we want to increase opportunities and welcome more businesses to our state, lawmakers must find sensible solutions that give our small businesses relief.”

Key findings include:

• Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.
• Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up 3 points from August.
• In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.
• A net negative 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in September, down 7 points from August. This was the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.
• One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).
• In September, 18% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from August and tying with taxes as the top single most important problem.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, unchanged from August. The last time unfiled job openings fell below 32% was in July 2020. Of the 58% of owners hiring or trying to hire in September, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 16% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 1 point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Hiring plans are at their highest level since January.

Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose by 3 points from August to 11%. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, up 2 points from August. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 1 point from August.

Fifty-six percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, unchanged from August. Of those making expenditures, 42% reported spending on new equipment, 22% acquired vehicles, and 14% improved or expanded facilities. Eleven percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 5% acquired new buildings or land for expansion. Twenty-one percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, unchanged from August and a historically weak reading.

A net negative 7% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up two points from August. More firms reported declining sales than reported gains. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 4 points from August to a net 8% (seasonally adjusted).

The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose 3 points to a net negative 3%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks, and 12% reported reductions. A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, unchanged from August.

Price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted, 33% of owners reported higher average selling prices and 10% reported lower average prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% plan to increase prices in the next three months, up five points from August.

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends improved 3 points from August to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted). September’s reading was the highest since December 2021. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 17% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 10% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s) and 9% cited labor costs. Among owners reporting higher profits, 58% credited sales volumes, 21% cited usual seasonal change, and 6% cited higher selling prices.

A net 7% of owners reported that their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 4 points from August and the highest reading of the year. Furthermore, a net 7% reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan and the average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.8% in September, up 0.7 points from August. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 3 points from August.

Owners’ overall assessment of their business’ health was generally unchanged. When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 11% of owners reported excellent (down 3 points), and 57% reported good (up 3 points). Twenty-seven percent reported the health of their business was fair (unchanged) and 4% reported poor (unchanged).

In September, 11% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 3 points from August. This is, comparatively, a relatively weak reading.

Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 1 point from August and ranking as the top problem alongside labor quality. The percent of small business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem fell 3 points to 6%.

The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 10%. Five percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, unchanged from August.

In September, 8% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, down 1 point from August. Four percent reported that financing and interest rates was their top business problem in September, unchanged from August.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2025.

###

For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses, and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

Congressman Dusty Johnson‘s campaign account continues to accrue funds for his work in Washington, while he’s out beating the bushes in South Dakota to raise money for his gubernatorial campaign:

Friends of Dusty Johnson Oct 2025 FEC by Pat Powers

The outgoing congressman is reporting in his latest FEC report that he raised $141,138.78 against $928,240.41 in expenditures & transfers (including $800,000 transferred to Dusty for Governor), leaving him with $5,201,452.65 cash on hand.

Somehow, I think that will be enough to get him through to his next report.

Well, that’s kind of underwhelming.

In his first FEC Report, Democrat Congressional candidate Billy Mawhiney raised less than a lot of State Legislative races do nowadays.

Billy Mawhiney Oct 2025 FEC Report by Pat Powers

In his first go at bat, which should be when he collects up front money from friends and family.. it doesn’t look like he has many, because he raised $17,106. Against this, he spent $8643.45, leaving him $8462.35 in the bank.

Well, at least he didn’t go backwards.

Former legislator Kameron Nelson gave him $1000, and he put $2,000 of his own money in.. otherwise, not a lot else that was noteworthy.  I suspect his primary opponent will come in with heftier sums, but we’ll have to wait and see for that report.

While State Rep. Jon Hansen was looking in the couch cushions to pay for a text message, Congressman Dusty Johnson was in mailboxes today with a jumbo postcard, talking about his conservative leadership, and the work he’s doing with President Trump:

From facebook.. as State Senator Tom Pischke uses attending “public school” in a manner which implies an insult.

Well.

At least it wasn’t a comment about race.

Thune: Schumer Shutdown Day 14

“Democrats were against shutdowns when it suited their political purposes, and now that it suits their political purposes – they think – to keep the government closed, now they support shutdowns.”

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) today delivered the following remarks on the Senate floor:

Click here to watch the video.

In a bombshell story that came out on Politico just a couple of hours ago, apparently a group chat among leaders of the national Young Republican organization has been disclosed which paints several of them in an unfavorable light:

Leaders of Young Republican groups throughout the country worried what would happen if their Telegram chat ever got leaked, but they kept typing anyway.

They referred to Black people as monkeys and “the watermelon people” and mused about putting their political opponents in gas chambers. They talked about raping their enemies and driving them to suicide and lauded Republicans who they believed support slavery.

and..

The group chat members spoke freely about the pressure to cow to Trump to avoid being called a RINO, the love of Nazis within their party’s right wing and the president’s alleged work to suppress documents related to wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex crimes.

and..

Mixed into formal conversations about whipping votes, social media strategy and logistics, the members of the chat slung around an array of slurs — which POLITICO is republishing to show how they spoke. Epithets like “f—-t,” “retarded” and “n–ga” appeared more than 251 times combined.

Read the entire story here.

That’s kind of ironic, considering the earlier post below involving Minnehaha County Commissioner Cole Heisey declaring Native American Day “as a mistake.”

And let’s not forget some of his prior issues, such as taking the stage with the Proud Boys. Among other things:

I note it, because just like the people who are the focus of the Politico article, Cole Heisey is chairman of the South Dakota Young Republicans.  And Vice-chair of the group?  State Representative Logan Manhart, who had his own controversy over racially tinged comments that went national a few months back:

I can’t help but wonder out loud if South Dakota’s Young Republican leadership participated in the sometimes racist chats of the group being cited in the article. Which makes me think that the group has gone downhill quite a bit since my time as Chairman over 2 decades ago.

We were glad to be able to get enough people together for a meeting at the time. Now? I find myself at times repulsed that they think that people like this think they might be the next generation of Republican leaders.

But considering the quality of who is in charge, and the kind of rhetoric which passes as acceptable.. maybe it would be ok for it to go back to being dormant for a while? At least until such a time when adults can be in charge of the group, and it’s more about getting Republicans elected than this kind of trash.

I received the following text blast of recycled buzz phrases yesterday from the Hansen for Governor campaign, and couldn’t help but think “well, that’s kind of needy.”

We are ending woke..  Ending woke what? And we get an image claiming Hansen is the only trusted and proven conservative and will stand firm. Which after his flip/flop on the prison and ultimate vote to keep people and law enforcement employees less safe, I would argue the ad should more correctly point out he’s the least trusted and self-serving.. remembering he was before the prison before he was against it.

The text blast coming on Native American Day seemed just kind of random. It’s like the campaign felt it needed to do something with all the money it collected from their Pizza Ranch fundraisers and show some signs of life by advertising.  And a text blast was the best they could do.

At this point, you have to wonder if they’re in the mode of just throwing things against the wall to try to delay Hansen’s inevitable dropping out of the race. Or at least prevent it from happening before January.

Apparently Toby Doeden campaign worker and Minnehaha County Commissioner Cole Heisey has a big beef with Native American Day, going so far as to call it “a mistake” on Social Media as he proudly displays a banner image for Columbus Day, calling the federal holiday substitution disrespectful to Italian Americans, and a slap in the face to broader American History..

”It was a mistake to replace Columbus Day over three decades ago.” – Minnehaha County Commissioner Cole Heisey

Because South Dakota is an enclave of Italian immigrants? I would wager Cole’s exposure to Italian Americans consists of playing Mario Kart.

What was that campaign promise Cole made when running for Office?

That was pretty short-lived!

If you wish to register your displeasure with how Minnehaha County is being represented by Cole, the Toby Doeden for Governor campaign worker (who is actually no longer working as an insurance agent), his contact information can be found here.

Next session, are we counting on legislators to bring legislation to build our workforce? Probably not. Or to move South Dakota from the bottom in teacher pay? I’m guessing no. Or to bring more value added agriculture processing to South Dakota to reverse the trend of plummeting corn prices? Oh hell no!

Can we count on them to fight against cloud trails left by high altitude jets from warm exhaust?  Of course we can.

As you might have guessed, one of South Dakota’s goofiest legislators is at it again. After signing a pledge earlier this year to have jets shot down if they leave contrails, State Representative Dylan Jordan is on facebook promising to bring a bill to “ban geoengineering flights” at airports:

Heeding the call of facebook (as opposed to his constituents), State Representative Dylan Jordan took to the social media website to declare that “there will be a bill next session” in response to this non-existent crisis.

*sigh*

Just remember. When low voter turnout gives us the lowest common denominator in legislators, this is what they bring to the table.