It’s interesting that the post I did on what could shake out for 2018 rocketed up to be one of the more popular posts of the last 30 days. And it bears out what one of my correspondents was noting this evening.
The question was “Everyone still talking 2018 out there?” And I truthfully had to respond – “Yep. 2016 is over already.” And that seems to be the general mood. The 2016 election is just a minor speed bump towards the next big election. Some people are folding up the chairs, and have started putting them away when it comes to state elections.
Democrats have practically run out of time to find (a) a credible candidate, and (b) someone who could raise anything close to what Senator Thune has in the bank already. In everyone’s minds, for all practical purposes. It’s done.
In Congress, they’re putting state income tax loving, pro-planned parenthood, only won her last election by 9 votes, Paula Hawks up against Congresswoman Kristi Noem who is literally at the height of her game, still riding the crest of her huge win on the farm bill, and now serves on the ways and means committee. In everyone’s minds, for all practical purposes. check that race off the list too. It’s also done.
What does that leave Dems? Chris Nelson for PUC. (What was I saying about this election being done?), and the state legislature where Republicans have a built in expectation we’re going to lose a couple, because the numbers are already impossibly and un-naturally high. The bigger shock is that the electorate keeps giving us Republicans those kind of numbers.
It’s not like Democrats disagree. They spend their time on ballot measures instead of candidates. They know they’ve already lost those races. Maybe they can pass a law or two by circumventing the legislative process. (Yay, self-back slapping by the activists, while they wonder why their registration numbers keep cratering, and question why no one wants to be a Democrat.)
So no wonder everyone keep talking about 2018. People are looking for some speculation. Some gamesmanship, and wrangling. Some good, old-fashioned politicking. We enjoy that. It’s a pastime of many in the state. So, when we talk about it, it piques people’s interest because it represents the unknown – the future that keeps evolving and changing with every little twist and turn.
But not 2016. Shoot – The 2016 election is already over in people’s eyes. Thune, Noem, Nelson, and a Republican Supermajority. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to call that one. Everyone agrees, and they’re already moving on to the big show in ’18.
Pat, don’t assume we will loose legislative seats. In fact, a pretty good case can be made that we will gain two house seats and a senate seat
Which seats?
I would say while it’s fun to speculate about 2018; we need to be vigilant and not take 2016 for granted.
I am also curious what seats are thought to be in danger. We need to find candidates now for those races and worry about 2018 later.
I agree a number of ballot measures clearly need to be defeated–the Democrats can’t win with the current rules so they want to change them, that measures needs to go down.
How close can we get to reducing the Democrats in the legislature to zero? That party has gone off the deep end with the crazies so we should be able to not only block them from any gains but continue to reduce their elected numbers.
I think we’re pretty close to being there. I’m not sure who else we could knock out.
PP,
That was the best post on SDWC in a long time. Keep us up to date on what happens.
I personally don’t think Noem will run against Jackley and Mickelson but I’m in the minority. I just think life is pretty good for her in DC and that is where she likes it. I also don’t think she is interested in a tough campaign for governor.
Anon,
Can you name some of these Democrats specifically that have “gone off the deep end with the crazies”?
And Pat,
Do you honestly feel as if a legislature completely controlled by one party is good for democracy or our state in any way?
Didn’t comment that it was or wasn’t. Frankly, I make more money when there’s competition.
But maybe your question should be “why have South Dakota voters so drastically rejected Democrats?” and “Why do democrats feel they need to petition to remove party labels from the ballot?”
we don’t have a two party system in south dakota because the ultralefties running the democrat party don’t want to get back over where most of their potential voters are, well to the right of them, in stephanie herseth sandlin range / moderate independent range. they WILL NOT betray their extreme value set and bend for the mere prospect of political gain. he he he he he.
Willie N,
If you don’t know who the crazies are and the lame brain associations, positions endorsed by a number of the officeholders, candidates and those remaining in the SDDP then you probably won’t.
It’s one thing to play up a liberal fantasy land but what happens in the world of reality is far different.
They are heading on a course of problem creating and not problem solving especially for those who own or manage businesses, properties and work to provide opportunities for everyone in our state.
I predict an even larger surge of defections from the SDDP by November 2016 as those who formally identified themselves as practical minded Democrats bolt from the party and it will reflect in election results.
Anonymous,
The question with regard to Noem running for Governor is going to be driven by what Members of Congress does vs. Governor.
Governor Mickelson said repeatedly what most people think being Governor is (dealing with issues and ideas) is only 10% of the job. The other 90% is basic management functions.
Not every person gifted to be a legislator/Member of Congress would make an effective Governor or vice versa. Jim Abdnor wouldn’t have been a very good Governor but I think he was a great legislator. I think most people agree Janklow was a better Governor than he was a Member of Congress.
When I look at Noem, having worked for a great legislator (Abdnor) and a great governor (Mickelson), I see Noem’s interests and skills closer to Abdnor. I think she might reach the same conclusion and ultimately stay where she is.
Troy, while I don’t have an insider’s view, I’ve said much the same thing. I believe Noem is much better qualified as a legislator, and will better serve the State where she is today. The Republican party has several good/great managers ready to make a run for Governor the next time around.