Marty Jackley’s congressional campaign is getting a double-boost in the media from a pair of reports coming out yesterday from both the Cook Political Report national political newsletter, and local media outlet SD News Watch noting that Attorney General Marty Jackley holds an early lead over Senator Casey Crabtree in the congressional contest.
From the Cook Political Report, reporter Matthew Klein provides his analysis on the race, where compared to other races nationally, it’s a sparse field running for Congress, but currently Jackley is dominating the contest due to his long record of public service:
Jackley, 55, is a particularly formidable candidate. Currently in his fourth term as South Dakota’s chief law enforcement officer, Jackley has been elected statewide three times. He has universal name recognition thanks to his high-profile run in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary, which he ultimately lost to then-Rep. Kristi Noem. He raised $526,000 during the third quarter, a robust sum that proves he has considerable backing among the state’s tight-knit donor class. And the lone poll out so far shows Jackley decisively leading Crabtree, 48%-5%.
and..
Crabtree, 42, is hoping to give Jackley a real race for the GOP nomination. He’s had his sights set on the At-Large District for years, and sources say his day job as director of economic development at Heartland 
Energy has helped him make connections across the state. Crabtree is regarded as a strong retail politician, though he’s largely unknown beyond his hometown of Madison and raised just $206,000 — less than half of Jackley’s haul — during the third quarter.
Crabtree, who served as the state Senate’s majority leader from 2023 to 2025, is styling himself as a champion of Trump’s “America First” agenda. He points to his push to slash sales taxes and ban sanctuary cities for undocumented immigrants as proof of his conservative credentials.
A similar story emerges from South Dakota News Watch’s story in recent polling in the Congressional Contest by SD News Watch in conjunction with the Mason-Dixon polling firm showing that the Attorney General has a commanding lead due to having ran for statewide office numerous times:
The statewide survey, co-sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, showed Jackley with 57%. State Sen. Casey Crabtree was the preferred candidate with 5%….
The poll also found that 36% of GOP voters haven’t decided who they would vote for in the June 2 primary.
and..
Coker said that for an open seat in a congressional race — meaning no widely recognized incumbent — and the primary seven months away, it’s not unusual to see a large portion of respondents having no preference.
The poll results, even factoring in the one-third who will be putting their support behind a candidate in the coming months, don’t open up much room for Crabtree to catch up to Jackley, Coker said.
(Biggest mystery here is why they’re polling with Biolata in the contest, since his campaign currently seems to lack the momentum to get on the ballot. )
Right now as the race stands, there are a lot of undecideds. But even with the undecideds, Attorney General Jackley commands a strong lead at the moment due to people’s long familiarity with having voted for him a number of times.
That being said, there’s still lots of race left, and potential wild cards that could be played in the race, such as quietly rumored Erin Tobin interest in the congressional contest.
Stay tuned!
Wow- this race is over. Jackley leads Crabtree 57 to 5 while out raising him more than 2 to 1…and Crabtree has been campaigning for the House since he was Majority Leader.
Stick a fork in it. Jackley is a juggernaut.
This is one of those races that I enjoy. Both are good options. They’re respectful to each other and the voters. If every race were like this one, we’d see more people involved in politics and fewer angry people.
Erin should jump in. She has more balls than both of the men running.
She should!
Third place Casey?
Jackley is 52% ahead of Crabtree. [edited – pp]. The race for second place will be the one to watch.
If Tobin gets in crabtree is easily in 3rd.
Agreed! Maybe he can issue refunds now of his campaign donations so they can invest in someone with a chance.
Marty has a commanding lead. Casey is a good enough person, but will struggle with name ID in his first statewide race. Erin Tobin has even less name Id than Crabtree and she lost in a primary. She would be best served to run for a constitutional office such as Secretary of State, Treasurer or Auditor something along those lines instead of jumping in the congressional race. To me, if she jumps in that race she only helps Jackley, as she is very similar to Crabtree if you look at their state legislative votes.
Jackley is already in trumps pocket.
Don’t underestimate Crabtree. He’s not stupid and can raise money from the lobbyists and business interests who own him. He won’t win the support of any conservatives, but his ambition and ego will propel him forward to the end.