South Dakota News Watch is reporting this AM that Congressman Dusty Johnson is currently surging in the race for Governor, while the man who had been his chief competitor has taken a tumble in polling conducted from April 7-11.
The scientific survey of 500 registered Republicans, conducted April 7-11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, found Johnson leading the four-way contest for governor with 34% of likely GOP primary voters supporting his candidacy.
The other three candidates are effectively tied for second due to the margin of error being plus-or-minus 4.5%. State House Speaker Jon Hansen, of Dell Rapids, has 18% support from GOP voters, and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden both have 17%. Roughly 14% of those surveyed were undecided.
and..
“Johnson is moving into the clear front-runner status,” he said.
“People know him. People like him, and that’s probably why he’s ahead right now. Whether he can hold on to that will depend on what the other campaigns – particularly Hansen’s – are able to do in the coming weeks,” Coker told News Watch, pointing to the poll results that found Johnson has a 47% favorability rating, the highest of any of the candidates.
That’s a massive shift of support against Governor Rhoden, who had been in a relatively close second place this last year when they last polled, with him shedding 10 points since that time. At this point, Dusty Johnson is in the lead, with the rest of the field virtually tied. (I heard all of them were at 17, and they’re getting Hansen to 18 by rounding up. I heard Doeden 17.4%, Hansen 17.8%, and Rhoden 17.0%)
Expect Ian thumbs of Fury to be in full crisis mode.
Larry needs to man up. He’s being systematically destroyed and he is more than happy to take it.
“The poll was conducted after the four candidates met in the March 31 KELO-TV debate but before the April 13 SDPB and South Dakota News Watch forum.”
Yikes – I’m thinking these numbers only get better for Dusty and worse for Larry after the most recent debate. We’ll see what next week’s debate does for candidates. Time to get serious on policy and vision.
Looks like the Trump 35% core is split between Hanson and Doeden, and the classic statewide bias against West River is intact.
Team Toby will need to fly in Laura Loomer, Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes to seal the deal. Toby can do this but will have to spend everything he has if he is serious about winning.
Kid Rock could be flown in for a massive Doeden for Governor event.
So it seems like there are two questions:
1. Does Dusty get 35% and avoid a runoff? He’s close but he also hasn’t really been attacked.
2. If there is a runoff, who finishes second? This poll shows basically a three-way tie for second place.
As much as I dread the thought, I think it’s Toby who finishes 2nd. I think he gained the most in the last debate. In the last debate Rhoden wasn’t strong and Hansen is a snake. Like him or not Dusty is consistent and Toby has nothing to lose. In a runoff Dusty knocks Toby off I think.
Doeden benefits by Johnson and Rhoden pretending he doesn’t exist, and Hanson’s inability to discern the alchemy of joining the MAGA into a solid block and edge out Toby. Doeden understands that you have to tell The Best Lie, and not waste time on worrying about the fact that it’s false. It’s serving him well.
Doeden will take 4th because even most of his supporters will realize he can’t win. He’s the next Dr. Boz – except he’s blowing his own money. Rhoden doesn’t have the horsepower or the money to get this done – his peak will be 22-24%. Hansen has picked up some support on a strong debate performance but he, too, will not have the money or momentum to catch Dusty. Part of this is a simple math problem – Dusty playing the role of frontrunner and the other three splitting the anti-Dusty votes. Could have been an interesting race one-on-one but this one is likely over. Dusty has the money and the energy to put it away as people are now starting to vote. Look for Dusty to come in around 40% – he’ll pick up undecideds who want to back the winner.
Sad indeed.
Not at all. Nobody else in the race can match Dusty’s understanding of government at intricate levels, or match his expertise in so many roles.
No Bah Dee. Just a fact. “There’s yer problem” as they used to say on Mythbusters.
too bad the debate moderators are hell-bent on asking the stupidest questions they can think of.
It makes sense. Dusty Johnson is a relentless campaigner, bright and hard-working, and he’ll finish first. Larry Rhoden is the opposite, lacks communication skills, performs poorly in debates, and will finish last. The bigger question is on who finishes second. Hansen is surging because the more people get to know him, the more they like him, especially among conservatives. Doeden has probably hit his ceiling and is unlikely to surge like Hansen. Prediction: Rhoden continues to bleed support and moderates coalesce around Johnson, who avoids a run-off with 38% of the vote.
So what’s gonna happen when they convict John Hanssen’s supporters and Minnehaha County… You know for filling out precinct position slots
Larry, Toby and Jon have not given voters a reason not to vote for Dusty. The four of them all seem like good republicans who support Trump and conservatives.
Rhoden’s strategy is a little too cute. Mike Rounds 2.0. The problem is everyone saw it a mile a way. He could make a strong case that Dusty is very different than he and Kristi on covid, masks and Trump but he hasn’t.
Toby has tried to be nice but its diluted the entire reason he is running. If your upset with the other three than tell us why. Point out Dusty’s short comings.
Hansen is the one guy showing up with enthusiasm and I think its why hes doing better. If I wasnt paying attention though I would think he and Dusty were identical on the issues.
Dusty has made it through most of April unscathed. Thats a win. He’s still struggling to clear 35% but against these 3 it looks like enough.
God help this state if Dusty is elected he is pouring millions of out of state money into his campaign, money should be capped and more debates he should have to answer for what he has done in DC. Not spend millions of out of state money to fund a campaign for SD governor. He loses huge without the out of state DC money to flood mailboxes with mailers and lieing TV Ads. He has a solution for all the problems but has been in politics his entire life and now claims he can fix them
And why shouldn’t Rhoden and Hansen have to answer for what they’ve done as leaders of SD. Like it or not they just increased taxes. The counties might actually have to pull the trigger but Hansen gave them the ammunition to do it, and the majority of counties will. I’m not a fan of the DC spending that Dusty has been a part of but if we’re calling a spade a spade, Hansen and Rhoden have done the same in SD.
The only increase is IF the counties by a 60% community vote decide for themselves if they want it. It was a brilliant solution. People somehow think they should see property taxes decreased NOW. It shows how unaware people are.
So far Larry, Toby and Jon have had three debates to ask Dusty and they have declined to ask. Im not aure why we need more debates.
Dusty is the leader and he’s the one pointing out the differences.
Rhoden wasted the legislative session. He could have used it as an opportunity to champion policy that would excite primary voters. Instead, his signature accomplishment was a property tax bill most republicans dislike.