MORE on poll just released showing Noem 11 points up

A Republican political consulting firm, Rockbridge Strategies, released a poll yesterday showing Congresswoman Kristi Noem as polling 11 points up from Marty Jackley, which the Jackley people were quick to try to discredit.

This morning the polling firm, Advantage, Inc, released a little more information on the results:

Advantage, Inc
Project: South Dakota Governor Autopoll
4/4/18
Start Date 4-Apr
End Date 4-Apr
N= 500
Date 4-Apr  Total
Q1. Do you plan on voting in the June 5 Republican primary for governor? 
1 Yes 500 500 100.00%
2 Not sure 0 0 0.00%
3 Unsure 0 0 0.00%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%
Q2.  If the candidates for governor in the Republican primary are Kristi Noem and Marty Jackley, who would you vote for?
1 Kristi Noem 220 220 44.00%
2 Marty Jackley 166 166 33.20%
3 Undecided 114 114 22.80%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%
Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kristi Noem?
1 Favorable 340 340 68.00%
2 Unfavorable 91 91 18.20%
3 No Opinion 69 69 13.80%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%
Q4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marty Jackley?
1 Favorable 295 295 59.00%
2 Unfavorable 96 96 19.20%
3 No Opinion 109 109 21.80%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%
Q5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?
1 Favorable 349 349 69.80%
2 Unfavorable 107 107 21.40%
3 No Opinion 44 44 8.80%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%
Q6. Are you male or female?
1 Male 250 250 50.00%
2 Female 250 250 50.00%
 TOTAL 500 500 100.00%

35 Replies to “MORE on poll just released showing Noem 11 points up”

    1. Anonymous

      If she’s up 11 then this race is where everyone thought it was in 2016 when Kristi announced. It means its status quo and marty has 6 months to close 11 point gap.

      Reply
    2. Tim Begalka

      It was done more than 60 days before the election, so technically no, it doesn’t have to say “paid for by Noem” if it was. I received this phone poll the evening of the 4th and I live in Deuel Co. and at the end it said something like “this poll conducted by Advantage Polling Inc.” The poll simply asked the 6 straightforward questions above, there was nothing shady, or misleading, or suggestive about it.

      Reply
    3. DJT

      Big League win for Noem just around the corner! We need strong leaders like Noem, not Cryin’ Politicians with weak Poll numbers!!!

      Reply
      1. Pat Powers Post author

        Agreed. It is what it is. Question is whether the universe they’re sampling is representative of the voting universe as a whole. If I knew the best way to do that, I’d be in business doing that.

        As it is, what we can do is go “Hmmm. Those are interesting results” and armchair quarterback it.

        Reply
      2. Veritas

        It is a rigged poll to deceive voters and there is proof Brasell and Robertson have pulled this stunt before. Their so-called poll had their candidate with a big lead and he got 3rd.

        Reply
  1. Anono

    Agree with Pat on this. What this doesn’t show us is a breakdown of east vs west or age groups, etc. Agree that auto polls don’t have the best record. They also did it on one night. I suspect it wasn’t stacked to all of Hamlin County for instance but knowing geographic and demographic breakdowns would be helpful. But the fact is we don’t know all the details and this is a new pollster to SD politics. The favorable/unfavorable numbers amongst R’s are not surprising.

    Reply
  2. Anonymous

    The support level of Trump in South Dakota is consistent with a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted last month. This leads me to believe it is accurate.

    Reply
  3. The Sage

    How do you know that this is a fake poll with fake results?

    What are the odds that you would call 500 Republicans (or 500 from any party for that matter) and each and every one of them – all 500 – would say they are voting in the primary? And the results consisted of exactly 500 people, not 499, not 501.

    Either this is fake entirely, or somebody chose 500 voters out of a larger sample polled. So which 500 out of the larger sample did they choose? The ones that would show Noem with a substantial but potentially believable lead. This is fake news, people. They really didn’t even try very hard to make it look real.

    Reply
    1. Anono

      when companies poll, they actually call way more than 500 – ultimately they end when they reach 500 that are demographically and geographically balanced. So you can’t dismiss it as fake news based on a 500 sample. That’s a misunderstanding of how polls work. Having said that, we still haven’t seen the actual cross tabs.

      Reply
    2. The Sage

      Yes, Anono. Poll companies do poll way more than 500 people. Then they parse the information behind the scenes and sometimes in ways to produce reports that sometimes bear little resemblance to the raw results. You want results favoring Noem by 10+ points? Survey 2,000 or so people and pick 500 results that put Kristi in the lead by the desired 10+ points. For all we know, the survey responses that weren’t counted in the 500 sample they reported on may have favored Marty by 10+ points. When a campaign releases a poll you can’t just take it at face value, which you appear to be doing Anono.

      Reply
  4. Anonymous

    Agree with Pat. This info does nothing to clear it up, as we don’t know if it is representative of voting universe as a whole.

    Weak methodology combined with her campaigns connections to the strategy group make this poll irrelevant. For all we know, they robo-called 300 random numbers, and then called 200 of her donors. Very easy to give yourself a big lead in a poll if that’s the result you’re trying to get.

    I certainly hope this not Noem’s internals, and only a transparent attempt at public influence polling. Otherwise, she might end up like Romney in 2012.

    Reply
      1. Anonymous

        Which was surprising. The Argus Leader, for example, won’t report on a poll unless they get to see the actual questions and are told who paid for it. Bob ran with it before he knew any of that. Usually I would expect Bob to be MORE critical of this type of thing.

        Reply
  5. Anonymous

    Interesting that commentators reject any poll that doesn’t conform to their beliefs. Love all the expert pollsters voicing their opinions here.I wonder how may of them have ever structured poll questions and had to formulate campaign strategy based on the results. And even more importantly how many have actually paid for one?

    Reply
  6. Anonymous

    This is the jist they want to spread the message that marty is will go negative:

    Robertson continued, “Marty Jackley’s only path to turning the race around before June 5 may be through a negative ad campaign, but even that is a risky strategy as one would assume his image would take a hit.”
    http://www.thepublicopinion.com/news/local_news/poll-says-noem-leading-jackley-by-points-in-gop-governor/article_fc34a34a-39e5-11e8-bb25-dfc562c50c31.html

    They didn’t like jackley’s clean campaign pledge and are trying to smear him by saying he will go negative.

    NOEM IS GOING NEGATIVE ANYDAY NOW.

    Reply
  7. Anonymous

    Really what is happening with fake polls is just politics today. A number of ballot initiatives and issues to those running for office use push polls or whatever to swing it to their favor.

    Reply
  8. enquirer

    my gut reaction is that jackley does have ground to make up across the state in general name recognition, and becoming better known to the voters. oh well. i have spent years hoping the natural successor to daugaard would be lt governor michels and i don’t think i’m over that non-start yet.

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      It’s been increasingly obvious that Kristi’s campaign isn’t up to snuff this cycle. I also wonder whether her heart is truly in it. Marty and his team, on the other hand, are committed to this race and hungry for victory.

      Reply
      1. Anonymous

        Kristi does have good options to help pay all that estate tax off. She could join the Insurance business in H2O town or become a lobbyist in DC. She has plenty of connections.

        Reply
  9. Jack Stone

    Down 11 pts and all the dirt and shady connections on Jackley yet to make the headlines. Which I can promise you will make the headlines in due time hint hint 🙂

    Reply
  10. Anonymous

    they are both good people and good candidates. Kristi is the better campaigner. Marty’s track record is better. They’ll end up in a dogfight because that’s what happens, especially when a 3rd person isn’t in race.

    Reply

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