In his usual thin-skinned manner, State Senator Stace Nelson took to Facebook yesterday to attack an unnamed blogger (me, I’m assuming) as a RINO because I had offered the following notes from the field about the possibility of him getting into a statewide race in 2018:
Insiders don’t expect State Sen. Stace Nelson, who placed third in the 2014 US Senate primary, to jump in a major statewide race in 2018. I’ve had people cite both health and lack of funds as reasons he’d likely stay out, although as recently as this past legislative session, it was noted to me that he was trying to talk people into it.
If Nelson would decide to run for statewide office this cycle, as an underperformer in 2014 at the statewide primary level, his only realistic path may be in a Constitutional office where the GOP Nominees are chosen at convention. At convention, the delegates tend to be more conservative, and may accept him as a nominee. Generally, the path after that is easy, as Democrats provide only nominal opposition, if any at all.
That report triggered Nelson to take to social media to make the following attack/statement:
While the first paragraph is typical Nelson boilerplate rhetoric which he rolls out the derisive term ‘RINO’ as others would use ‘and’ or ‘the’ in a sentence, the second makes a claim that ‘many’ have asked him to get into either the Gubernatorial or Congressional contests.
That claim seems dubious, however, as neither offer a realistic path forward for the candidate who prefers a style of campaigning that relies on bombast and attacks that some consider unfair and dirty politics.
In the Gubernatorial contest, normally aligned Lora Hubbel and Stace Nelson have had a rift develop with some citing her entrance into the race as causing friction between the normally allied pair, as they would be splitting the same universe of conservative voters were Nelson to enter the race. With Hubbel in the race, there is simply no room for Nelson.
In the Congressional race, Nelson’s typical campaign braggadocio would run up against the reality of his previously mentioned inability to raise the level of funds necessary to conduct a statewide race. A deficiency that would likely hobble him to a third or fourth place finish.
Why? It’s just basic math & history. By the time of the 2014 US Senate primary, Nelson raised an anemic total of 131k aggregate total across the entire duration of the primary, a figure that his likely opponents, Shantel Krebs and Dusty Johnson, have been raising quarterly.
While Nelson might give a top office bid in 2018 lip service for his loyal Facebook friends, the reality of the situation is that even were he to make the leap, a realistic path forward for either race does not seem to exist in this reality.