Any predictions for Tomorrow? Sound off!

Pat Powers

Where do you think the two big Republican primaries are going to land tomorrow?

In the Congressional race, I think it’s a safe bet that Dusty Johnson is going to come out on top based on the recent polling. The question is “How Neal Tapio and Shantel Krebs going to split the remainder of the field?”

And I couldn’t call the Governor’s race if I tried. I think it’s going to come down to each campaign’s GOTV effort.

I’m also going to be curious to see how early voting affects the outcome, as well as how prevalent it will be. It just keeps growing, and it could be a significant factor in the outcome.

Sound off in the comment section!

67 thoughts on “Any predictions for Tomorrow? Sound off!”

  1. Dusty for sure. Jackley will edge it out. I think Noem is going back to the farm like she said she would.

    1. Jackley wins every county west of the River—the JAMES River—and Noem still wins the election, setting off a civil war.

      (I’m exaggerating, but you get the idea.)

  2. Dusty for the win.

    I think Kristi wins if more people show up east river & Jackley wins if west river shows up. But I think ultimately she’ll win but it’ll be close.

    1. Rhoden is counting on being the running mate with his west river votes bringing her the win.

    1. That looks reasonable, Cinder, but I won’t be shocked if it’s closer.

      I’ll predict (1) Dusty wins; and (2) Minnehaha County sets the record for most votes cast in a SD primary.

  10. Dusty wins by a margin.
    Jackley and Noem will be so close that a recount will occur.

    1. This must be Billie Sutton 🙂 No one else is hoping for this mud fight to continue past tomorrow!

  12. Why is a 4 term congresswoman in a close race and polling below 50%? Because of that I’m picking Jackley in a close race. Noem made it closer going negative but ultimately she went negative because this was a 1 point race. I think that sums it up.

    1. Because 15,000 state employees have been ordered to vote Jackley? Because the polls showed DT behind Clinton?

  13. Noem wins and won’t be as close as people said it was gonna be…

    Tapio performs much better than expected. Likely 2nd place ahead of Krebs

    2. I agree after thinking about this ….59%
      Going to be The young women movement making a difference or women in general

  14. Does Krebs run for SOS again? And what does that do to Barnett and rest of constitutional races? Would he switch to Treasurer and take on the newcomer guy? Interesting stuff.

    1. She won’t get far with that. People like Steve and they appreciate that he has worked hard to earn their vote, even without an opponent.

      1. Barnett has also built up a war chest of $90,000 effectively ending the general before it starts no reason to throw that away.

          1. Difference is it is a constitutional office…they don’t need as much money but you do have to raise 200-300k to be competitive that is why I don’t take some of the candidates seriously

    2. I don’t see her wanting to run unless delegates start recruiting her because they have concerns.

  15. Watch Sioux Falls results. If crime error has impact, Jackley wins. If Kaiser transcends in Sioux Falls, Noem wins. Margin depends on how big these items have impact. It is sad the race isn’t decided by a substantitive policy issue.

    Tapio gets 18-20% which may challenge Krebs for second. Dusty margin depends on if Krebs is at 20% or 35%.

    1. I know it wasn’t driven by a substantive issue, but many races aren’t. Instead they are decided by personality…. or favorable/unfavorables.

    2. I could not figure out what led Krebs and Tapio to come out so hard on the immigration issue until I read today’s WSJ on it being Bannon’s key strategy to pull in midterm voters that usually stay home. Love him calling it the “deplorables-plus” strategy. He nailed it before, we’ll see if he’s right again.

    3. I believe Noem will win this. She must have a ton of cash. I keep seeing her ads on TV. Sometimes she has back-to-back ads. She has been hammering the Kaiser case. Based upon the fact she is blitzing, I think that will be the difference.

  18. I predict every winner in tomorrow’s primary goes on to win in November.

    1. I’ll take that bet and raise you $500. Bjorkman will sit in DC come the new year.

      1. No way Bjorkman beats Dusty. He might beat one of the other two but he won’t beat Dusty. Dusty will work harder and go punch-for-punch with him on policy. That plus a 90,000 GOP advantage is more than enough.

      3. Who? I would be willing to take your bet. Nobody has heard of Bjorkman and I believe he will be creamed in November.

        1. Put em on the stage and watch Dusty crumble just like he did with Malcom Chapman.

  19. This is more of a question than a prediction. If Kristi loses narrowly, and if she underperforms in ranch country (which the Argus Leader poll indicates she might), how much will she regret not having named Rhoden as running mate 2-3 weeks ago?

    1. I acknowledge that Rhoden is a front runner but why would she choose another rancher? She.has that base covered. And geography of Union Center doesn’t add to her base.support.

    2. I agree with you, but I’m not convinced she offers Rhoden the position if she wins. I suspect she may be stringing him along, hoping to get the benefit of all the speculation without having to actually make a public commitment.

      1. Ms. Noem probably knows the power of the Rhoden Rhangers, and wants them to rhide for her.

        1. I think she hopes that hinting without publicly committing gets them on her side without tying her hands.

  20. Noem 52%
    Jackley 48%

    Marty’s inability to defend himself in the debates and in paid TV advertising tilted this race decisively.

    Dusty 49%
    Shantel 35%
    Tapio 16%

    Krebs didn’t need a wacked-out Trump clone to jump in the race. And, she didn’t respond properly to his catfishing.

    1. Why did Jackley not hit Noem for her exaggeration of SF crime? It kind of went unnoticed.

  21. GOVERNOR
    Jackley: 51%
    Noem: 49%

    CONGRESS
    Dusty: 47%
    Tapio: 30%
    Krebs: 23%

  22. I think that Dusty’s kids will defeat Shantel’s cattle and Dad, and Tapio’s Trump supporter lady.

    Then I think that Kristi’s kids will defeat Marty’s kids as long as the #METOO ad does not backfire with a Republican constituency…..

  23. Larry has a look on his face like he’s watching his daughter or son get married.

  24. Dusty 53
    Shantel 29
    Tapio 18

    Dusty is not fresh but works very hard and a safe pick

    Noem 52
    Jackly 48

    Too many scandals for Jackley…we need a change n Pierre fresh blood all around!

  25. Johnson routs Krebs & Tapio. Kreb’s percentage ends up closer to Tapio’s than Dusty’s.

    Gubernatorial race depends on turnout, but Noem is more likely to win. Jackley only wins if turnout is low, Noem’s odds of winning increase the greater the turnout. The number of low-information voters who can name the state Congressional representative buries the number who can name the state AG.

  26. Jackley could have won. If only he had any factual defense to the Noem attack ads. Why has he not taken on the ads with any factual defense? Maybe because they’re true?

  28. One look at the news and social media shows all the momentum on Kristi’s side. I was impressed with the Facebook Live interviews one of her volunteers did on the bus tour. Really showed a broad base of support and a depth of knowledge among her staff. I think Kristi will blow Marty out of the water.

  29. I agree with Blogger123. Dusty – 57%, Krebs – 25%, Tapio – 18%. If Jackley wins. It will be by 1%. If Noem wins. It will be 56% and Jackley – 44%. Most people are so sick of negativity of candidates, main-stream media and “opposition research companies that they hung up on surveys and ignored negative ads.

  30. Dusty wins big

    Govs race very tight. Down to the wire. Kristi doesn’t have Glodt for GOTV. Edge goes to Marty. Less than 1000 votes difference.

  31. Looking good for Marty from my vantage point. Much better ground game than Kristi Noem today.

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