Author: Pat Powers

From Facebook:

Mayor TenHaken Statement on USMCA Signing

Sioux Falls, South Dakota: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), strengthening the trading relationship between the signatory parties and improving trade for South Dakota businesses.

“I’m excited so see USMCA signed today and I’m excited for the potential it has for Sioux Falls area businesses and producers. Sioux Falls’ economy has a global reach and agreements like USMCA break barriers so that our region can thrive and create new jobs,” said Mayor Paul TenHaken. “Thank you to Senators Thune and Rounds, Representative Johnson and Governor Noem for their advocacy to get USMCA across the finish line.”

U.S. exports are expected increase by $2.2 billion per year under the USMCA according to the International Trade Commission, particularly for manufacturing and agriculture production. South Dakota’s trade relationship with Canada and Mexico is significant and will improve with USMCA. In 2019, trade of goods equated to $586 million to Canada and $338 million to Mexico.

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Dusty Johnson had a pretty good 4th quarter for fundraising to end 2019:

Dusty Johnson 2019 EOY Report – 202001299182371361 by Pat Powers on Scribd

$193,576 raised, to which Dusty added $52,935 from another committee to total $248,072. $61,147 spent, and he ends the year with $614,976 cash on hand before his primary opponent even thought of taking her petitions out.

That’s not shabby. Not shabby at all.

House Bill 1057, an act to prohibit certain acts against children and provide a penalty therefor (transgender surgery ban for minors) passes 46 yea, 23 nay, and 1 excused in the State House of Representatives.

Rounds Attends Signing of USMCA at White House 

WASHINGTON—U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) today attended President Trump’s signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaces the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement.

“I had the honor to join President Trump at the White House this morning for the signing of the USMCA,” said Rounds. “This new agreement will expand trade opportunities for South Dakota’s farmers, ranchers and manufacturers. Mexico and Canada are two of our most valued trading partners, and signing the USMCA solidifies our partnerships with them. Trade with the two countries supports 37,700 jobs for South Dakotans, so making sure we maintain positive relationships with them is important for our economy. I thank President Trump for inviting me to attend today’s signing, and for his strong support of our ag producers and manufacturers.”

Rounds (left) with Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) at the White House ahead of the USMCA signing on Jan. 29, 2020 (photo c/o Rep. Johnson)

President Donald Trump signing the USMCA at the White House on Jan. 29, 2020

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Johnson Attends Signing of USMCA at White House

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) today attended the signing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement at the White House.

Johnson at the White House with other House members instrumental in USMCA passage

“USMCA is the win for producers we’ve been working towards for nearly two years,” said Johnson. “South Dakota’s farmers want a level playing field, and that’s exactly what this free trade agreement provides. I was proud to stand by the president during today’s signing of the USMCA, and I look forward to seeing the added jobs and trade opportunities this agreement will bring to our nation’s economy.”

Since being sworn into office, Johnson has strongly supported the USMCA. Additionally, Johnson was among the members assigned to lobby his Democrat colleagues to support the free trade agreement. In March, Johnson spoke in favor of the USMCA on the House floor. Further, Johnson publicly urged Speaker Pelosi to bring the USMCA up for a vote in July, September, and December of 2019.

The USMCA is expected to add 176,000 jobs and open the Canadian market up for the first time to American dairy, wheat, chicken, egg, and turkey products, further expanding export opportunities for America’s farmers and ranchers. U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico alone supports more than 12 million American jobs. According to the International Trade Commission, U.S. exports will increase by $2.2 billion per year under the USMCA.

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Noem: USMCA a “Major Win” for South Dakota Producers

PIERRE, S.D. – Governor Kristi Noem today released the following statement after President Donald Trump signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA):

“The USMCA is a major win for South Dakota producers. Each year, our state exports $586 million worth of goods to Canada and $338 million of goods to Mexico. The USMCA rebalances and modernizes the old rules of the road into a 21st century, high-standard trade deal that better serves the interests of South Dakota farmers, ranchers, and businesspeople.

“With 95 percent of the world’s consumers living outside our borders, the USMCA builds the framework that ensures our goods are sold in a marketplace that is fair, open, and competitive. This is a win for South Dakota, and I’m grateful for President Trump’s leadership in pulling it across the finish line.”

Noem, a lifelong farmer and rancher, helped negotiate the USMCA while serving in Congress and has been an outspoken advocate for the agreement.

The USMCA will advance United States agricultural interests by building upon existing markets to expand United States food and ag exports and support food processing and rural jobs. The modernized trade deal includes stipulations to increase ag market access, enhance labor and environmental rights, address non-market practice and unfair subsidies, and increase intellectual property protections.

To learn more about the impact the USMCA will have on South Dakota, click here.

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Back in July I had written about Neal Tapio’s chances against now incumbent Congressman Dusty Johnson, and thought Tapio’s chances of success were fairly poor at the time given little things ..such as statistics and history:

Dusty had nearly 20 points over his nearest contender in the 2018 primary. Moving to a two-way contest, he’d only have to pick up less than 5% over his prior total to call it a decisive win.

If he pulls the trigger, Neal would have to pick up an additional 26% over his prior total. Not to mention that he’d be running against an incumbent who won the general election with 60% of the popular vote in the fall.

Read that all here.

How would that same data set apply against former State Representative Liz May’s new candidacy against Congressman Dusty Johnson?  I believe she would have even less of a chance than Tapio would.  And that does not bode well if you look at the numbers.

Understand that under no circumstances will an incumbent receive 100% of the vote, because of the fact that there are contrarians in our society. If you say the letters on a page are black, they’ll disagree with a long and drawn out explanation why.  Not to mention people who refuse to accept the earth isn’t flat.  And, those people will vote in quixotic ways as well.

The “Dead Cat” number – as in how many votes might a dead cat receive if they were on the ballot against the incumbent, can be said to be in the neighborhood of 13-15%.  That’s where Liz May is starting her campaign.

When Lora Hubbel ran in the Primary for Governor, she received about 19% of the vote, meaning she was only able to convince about 4-5% of voters to vote for her over the incumbent, Governor Dennis Daugaard.

If we’re really generous, we might say that Liz will start with a contrarian vote of 15%. If all things are equal to 2018, that means she would have to convince 35% (plus 1) of primary voters that she is the better choice than Dusty. Where Dusty would only has to move fewer than 5% if we’re basing it strictly off of primary numbers.

But they’re not equal. In fact, almost staggeringly unequal.

Starting from zero, Liz May will have to spend a tremendous amount of money to purchase the same name ID that Dusty Johnson has been able to achieve after running on a statewide basis 4 times – twice for Public Utilities Commission, Once in the Congressional Primary and once in the Congressional General Election.  And he won all 4 of those elections.

Once she achieves that name ID, or concurrent with that, she’s going to have to go hard, hard  negative to try to prevent Dusty from retaining the votes he received in the primary (47,032), as well as those who might have voted for someone else but followed him into the general election. And the general election is also key in this because of what Dusty picked up in November 2018.

Because while Dusty received 46.8% in a three-way primary, Dusty received an even more massive 60% of the general election vote in a 4 way general – 202,446 voters in that election cast a positive ballot for Dusty Johnson, meaning as he picked up a number equivalent to all of the 100,454 primary voters, he added over 100,000 more voters who endorsed him in the general election.

When Liz May finally gets around to launching her campaign, watch for a lot of money to be spent, as well as her making hard negative attacks against Dusty Johnson. Because there’s literally no way that Liz May can peel that many voters away from Johnson in the short 125 days until the primary election.

I’m not sure who has an upside in taking on a race against Dusty Johnson except for the consultants. Which brings me to an interesting item.

On a post on Liz May’s facebook page, when former Legislator John Teupel praised her campaign as ‘refreshing,’ Texas based political consultant James McIntosh was right there on the spot tagging his approval.  Not saying the two are related.. but we don’t know they’re not.

So stay tuned.  125 days until the June primary, and counting down.

Hot off the press, I’ve been sent a copy of a letter from the Liberty Counsel organization to Governor Kristi Noem, offering to defend the State of South Dakota on a pro bono basis if House Bill 1057 is passed and challenged in court, which has already been threatened by the ACLU.

Liberty Counsel believes that the measure is constitutional and would survive any such challenge, and they express that they’re willing to back that opinion up.

Liberty Counsel SD Vulnerable Child Protection Act by Pat Powers on Scribd

It takes some of the bite out of any expenses the state might face should the measure pass, but would not cover legal expenses for plaintiffs should such a lawsuit prevail.

House Bill 1057 is scheduled to be debated on the House floor this afternoon.

Johnson’s Office Accepting Summer Internship Applications

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) announced that his office is seeking internship applicants for Summer 2020 in his Washington, D.C., Rapid City, Aberdeen, and Sioux Falls offices.

Duties will include researching legislation, attending committee hearings and briefings, leading tours of the U.S. Capitol, handling constituent phone calls, sorting mail and providing support to the staff and the Congressman. Interns will work closely with constituents and staff while developing their research, writing, and communications skills. Most importantly, they will gain an in-depth understanding of the South Dakota congressional office.

“Our offices are hands-on,” said Johnson. “Interns are a vital part of our team both in Washington and in the state. We all work as a team to ensure South Dakota’s interns leave the congressional office with the experience and tools needed to successfully enter the workforce.”

Interested applicants should complete the online internship application and submit a resume no later than March 3^rd, 2020. More information about the internship program, along with the application, can be found online. Resumes should be submitted at dustyjohnson.house.gov/services/internships.

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