Ballot Measure thoughts & predictions.

This year’s long lines at the ballot box are a result of a couple of things. First, a very contentious presidential election driving participation numbers up. Secondly, what some of us might consider “the ballot from hell” with one of the longest lists of ballot measures in recent history.

So, where do I think these measures are going to land? I think the position of measures on the ballot will have something to do with it, as well as a propensity of people to vote NO when faced with overly long explanations and confusion. And there’s also a mix of how much advertising the measures have done.

Ballot Question	Yes	No
AMENDMENT R: AN AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION REGARDING POSTSECONDARY TECHNICAL EDUCATION INSTITUTES.	59%	41%
AMENDMENT S: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION TO EXPAND RIGHTS FOR CRIME VICTIMS	52%	48%
AMENDMENT T: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION TO PROVIDE FOR STATE LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING BY A COMMISSION	57%	43%
AMENDMENT U: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION LIMITING THE ABILITY TO SET STATUTORY INTEREST RATES FOR LOANS	42%	58%
AMENDMENT V: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION ESTABLISHING NONPARTISAN ELECTIONS	48%	52%
INITIATED MEASURE 21: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO SET A MAXIMUM FINANCE CHARGE FOR CERTAIN LICENSED MONEY LENDERS	Toss Up	Toss Up
INITIATED MEASURE 22: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO REVISE STATE CAMPAIGN FINANCE AND LOBBYING LAWS, CREATE A PUBLICLY FUNDED CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROGRAM, CREATE AN ETHICS COMMISSION, AND APPROPRIATE FUNDS	42%	58%
INITIATED MEASURE 23: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO GIVE CERTAIN ORGANIZATIONS THE RIGHT TO CHARGE FEES	35%	65%
REFERRED LAW 19: AN ACT TO REVISE STATE LAWS REGARDING ELECTIONS AND ELECTION PETITIONS	38%	62%
REFERRED LAW 20: AN ACT LOWERING THE STATE MINIMUM WAGE FOR NON-TIPPED EMPLOYEES UNDER AGE 18	35%	65%

In looking at it, I’m betting on the top three measures on the ballot to pass for a few different reasons.

Amendment R has had no real opposition of any sort, aside from a cursory notation against it in the ballot measure brochure. It has also had some advertising in favor of it, and there’s really no controversy attached to it.

Amendment S, a.k.a. Marsy’s Law, will be tighter, due to the opposition of many State’s Attorneys. However, as a concept, most are in favor of victim’s rights. And there’s the Kelsey Grammer ad. Arguably the single best and most recognizable ad of the entire election season. It’s a powerful argument, they’re towards the top of the ballot, and I think they’ll pull it off.

Amendment T. The GOP had to pick their battles, and ultimately, many adopted the same attitude I had – who cares? It’s not going to amount to a hill of beans, and the GOP will still be dominant. Although rejiggering districts in the short term will be a pain, there are bigger fish to fry.

The rest are more likely to end up in the loss column.

Amendment U was put on the ballot, but not effectively supported with advertising by the ballot measure sponsors. However, what it is doing is causing voter confusion between the two measures.  I look to this one to go down, possibly by a substantial margin.

Amendment V has had a LOT of out of state money spent on it’s behalf. But I think the second of Slick Rick Weiland’s measures (after Amendment T being the first) will go down. Hiding party label is not a popular concept in red state South Dakota, and word is they haven’t been chasing after the issue west river very hard. If it’s even east river, as the votes move West River, the voters should come in and effectively kill it.

Initiated Measure 21 is my lone toss up.  Midway among the ballot measures, only those concerned about it will be casting a “yea” vote, and I don’t know that the yes side effectively made their case before the floodgates of advertising opened up against it. With ads on either side saying No on U, Yes on 21, as well as Yes on U, No on 21, I think voters might be apt to just kill them both.

Even before the advertising started in earnest, polling such as Nielson Brothers were showing only 39% for, and 26% against, with 35% undecided. Once the No on Initiated Measure 21 groups got moving, I suspect numbers started moving against it in such a way that there’s no clear indication how the vote is going to go tonight.  Whatever it is, I think it’s going to be close.

Initiated Measure 22, the bill to handout taxpayer dollars to politicians has had a lot of money thrown at it from either side. But both being down ballot, having state leaders against it, and bearing the title of “CREATE A PUBLICLY FUNDED CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROGRAM” as part of the measure, I think it’s toast.

Despite it’s cute advertising, Initiated Measure 23 is going to go down hard. You can take take that to the bank.

And RL 19 and 20 are going to go down, because people have lost interest at this point, and neither have had good reasons noted to vote for them.

Agree?  Disagree? The floor is yours.