A new private poll released this morning contends that both Marty Jackley and Kristi Noem are in a dead heat in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary race:
To: Interested Parties
From: Blake Harris, Leverage Public Strategies
Date: May 10, 2018
Re: South Dakota Republican Primary for Governor
Leverage Public Strategies is a political consulting and public opinion research company with candidate and non-profit clients across the country. From time to time, LPS surveys Republican races of interest around the U.S. to keep tabs on conservative voter opinions and moods.
LPS recently conducted a public opinion survey of likely South Dakota Republican Primary voters to evaluate candidate support in the 2018 race for governor. The survey took place May 4-7, sampled 350 likely GOP Primary voters, and had a margin of error of 5.2%. Our findings were as follows:
• The race is statistically tied, with Marty Jackley leading Kristi Noem by one point: 39% to 38%.
• Both candidates enjoy a high positive favorability number. Marty Jackley’s net favorability is +61 (77-16) while Kristi Noem’s is +49 (71-22).
• Kristi Noem does slightly better among “very conservative” voters (46-37%).
• Marty Jackley does slightly better among those “certain” to vote (41-36%).
• Female voters favor Marty Jackley (41-35) while male voters favor Kristi Noem (41-37).
• The race is equally close as the top-line in all regions of the state.
LPS President Blake offered the following comments on the race:
“This primary campaign is at close as it gets, and all signs point to a photo finish. This race is going to be a very interesting one to watch over the final weeks of the primary. Both candidates have single-digit “never heard of” numbers, which means they are both fairly well-defined in the minds of voters.
Bottom line: Most Republicans in South Dakota feel like they have two good options. Therefore, as is usually the case in close races, the campaign that best utilizes resources to turnout their supporters will likely win.”
I’m on the road, so I’ll post more on it later. As one commenter has noticed (I was just waking up when I posted this) It might’ve been a better poll if they had left off the Democrats and independents, since they can’t vote in the primary.