After very long months of work, the election day is here. Or at least in MInnehaha County, we’ll know something eventually this week.
Regardless of how long it takes them to count votes in Sioux Falls – what are your predictions for the election?
I feel pretty good about today overall. I think Republicans are going to run very strong statewide. Trump is going to handily defeat Biden in the state, Rounds’ opponent didn’t have the cash or the message to actually do anything. Dusty Johnson only had an opponent on paper.
There’s a race for PUC too.. Again, hand that to Gary Hanson, although, it’s already over. You can call that one now for Gary.
Moving down the ballot, I think it’s going to be a brutal night for Democrats. Especially when they didn’t contest 1/2 the seats in the Senate.
In D1, Susan Wismer has had her toughest challenge ever, and Michael Rohl could very possibly turn her out. Rohl has made a massive effort, and Wismer has been largely a useless appendage accomplishing nothing in the legislature in recent years.. and Rohl has been pointing it out, over and over with a theme of “A senate seat being a terrible thing to waste” coming home to roost, while Wismer draws from her typical well of negativity.
Dems put maximum effort into D9, both House & Senate which could be tough territory, but Republicans have fought back. This might be the most competitive District in the state, and the one to watch… whenever Minnehaha County gets their votes in.
D13 House is intriguing, as I believe Republican Richard Thomason has a good shot to unseat Democrat Kelly Sullivan. Conventional wisdom say Sue Peterson – who ran a very aggressive campaign – will be first, and then it will be a battle for second between Thomason & Sullivan.
Same thing in District 14 House. Newcomer Taylor Rehfeldt ran better than a textbook campaign and hit it hard in that district. The battle is for second between Erin Healy who unseated Tom Holmes, and Holmes as he tries to reclaim his old seat. Tom is running a stronger effort this time than before, and it will all come down to who votes.
D17 House is another potentially split district. Sydney Davis is again one of these new candidates who just crushed anything in her path and gave us a textbook example on how to win an election (Erin Tobin in D21 senate is another, but her fall race is not competitive). In D17, the actual race is for second place. Republican Richard Vasgaard has most of his effort dedicated to Turner County, and Democrat Al Leber, a former school superintendent has a notable presence in Clay County. No good read on how this one will tip, so keep an eye on things to see who comes in second.
You have to go down to District 25 for the next race to watch. Marsha Symens vs. Rick “carpetbagger” Knobe. Rick started out loud.. but then seemed to disappear. Symens has pushed, including some last minute advertising. The early vote could be a problem, with Knobe having higher name ID than the newer candidate Symens, who does have the backing and natural support as the Republican candidate. I don’t think the House contest will be competitive, as Hansen & Pischke seem secure.
There is some hope for D26 & 27 Senate and 27 House, but those races will have to be going on all cylinders, and GOP turnout will need to be especially high, while Dem turnout is low.
Otherwise, I see few surprises in other contests.
What are your thoughts?
