The Rhoden for Governor Campaign released the memo from recent polling that was conducted about the same time as the Emerson Poll results that were released which showed the Governor in third place.
In contrast, the poll from the campaign via Public Opinion Strategies claims that Rhoden is in a much closer race, showing him down only five points as compared to the Emerson poll’s 11 points, after those results hit the media in a blitz, leaving people wondering what was happening.
The Public Opinion Strategies Poll makes the claim that “The Governor is well-positioned to win, and his ballot position is likely to only improve once his advertising campaign begins in earnest.”
With only 1/2 million in the bank as of the last report, and with two of his opponents hitting the airwaves now, his earnest effort probably needs to begin soon if he wants to make that prediction come true.
You can read the memo and decide for yourself:
Rhoden Polling Memo by Pat Powers
(Update – Rhoden looks to be starting on the air next week.)
Taking this at face value, which is more likely to happen? Dusty gets 2% of the remaining 12% undecided and wins without a runoff, or Rhoden gets at least 7% of that 12% and Dusty doesn’t pick up any? Even if you think this poll is better than the Emerson poll, I am not sure its actually better news for Larry.
At the end of the day, Dusty has a dependable reputation for hands-on conservative government at both the state and national level. He has problem-seeking/problem-solving acumen, and a long track record of fighting for the residents of this state and this country.
Elsewhere, people have more of a house-of-cards to show voters, than anything substantive or speaking to competence in the governors role. Doeden is the most cynical contender, leaping up to flash a wad of cash around and appeal to the vote cluster that has been built for Donald Trump’s use. He might not bend it all toward himself, regardless of the victory laps he’s already taking.
Hansen is giving it his best shot, but, yeah, ok. Rhoden is behind the eight ball in funding and marketing, regardless of how you spin it. He needs to share a big resonant vision to stay competitive with Johnson. So far Rhoden’s biggest skill seems to be quickly standing wherever the roving Trump MAGA spotlight happens to land on the issues.
Johnson is the adult in the race no matter how you cut it at this point, shaving jokes notwithstanding.
Curious about the ‘Trump MAGA spotlight’ comment. I guess I haven’t seen that much from him. Dusty definitely and Doeden almost exclusively. Not counting Mt. Rushmore, what issues have you seen?
He’s Noem Lite in his governing choices. That’s more reactive than proactive.
Not really an answer. Or not at all actually.
I don’t have time for your Alinsky freeze-frame flea-dissection tactics. lol
I know you can’t poll everyone, but does that really say 400 likely voters? That feels like an incredibly small sample size to base any kind of opinion.
Doesn’t seem to jive with the Morning Consult poll that rated all Governors nationally which has Rhoden with an 81% approval rating among SD Republicans. Only 5% disapproval. Poll after poll after poll.
Jibe. Not jive. Is Reggie commenting again?
I’ve used that term for decades. Thank you for the lesson (no sarcasm intended). Looked it up and I’m definitely not alone. ‘The misuse is so widespread that it has been recognized as a standard error for over 80 years dating back to the 1940s’. I don’t feel so bad. And I’m a female and not named Reggie.
Lots of campaign staffers going to be lurking and keyboarding on here for a while. Seems to be picking up already.
Bolger has been polling here for a couple decades. So I tend to believe his polls over Emerson. There is no doubt that Dusty should be ahead. But there is also no doubt that this could be a race. They are not just fighting over the undecideds. They are fighting over a lot of leaning voters as well. Politics is zero sum – if Larry picks up 2 from Dusty all of a sudden it’s a toss up. Toby may have already peaked. He will be a non factor in the end. Could play spoiler by taking Larry’s votes and could also help push this election to a run off between Dusty and Rhoden. Hansen can also contribute as a spoiler but that will be all – with no money he has no hope and will likely come in under 15%. He’s not Mike Rounds so he shouldn’t anticipate filling that role. Will be interesting to see if there is any back channel negotiating to try to get him out of the race.
About 12 weeks left and the ads will change this horse race a bunch. Rhoden could get a spike when his new ads come out. When the polls tighten, look for this race to get ugly.
Well stated.
Wait — Larry’s “good news” polling memo has him in second place and Dusty on the cusp of avoiding a run off?
Not a ton of good news there.
Campaign staffer?
You must’ve not read or misread. In a head to head with Dusty, it has him winning. That was the exact question as my husband got the poll call. First asked if all 4 then just Rhoden/Johnson. Other races were part of it also.
I think Larry is a solid fellow but can’t help but notice how Bidenesque he is becoming in press conferences. Has a heck of a time hearing questions. Tony often has to jump in and answer or explain to the governor what was asked. Again, really good guy, but tough to watch sometimes.
Tony is doing all the policy and talking points. No doubt. And I know I don’t want him as my Governor.
Selfish
Rhoden and Hanson are polling well as they have had to spend their time at the legislative session. They are the conservatives who have not thrown a ton of money into commercials or mailings.
True. Some people take their actual job seriously. This was a hard but hugely successful session.
Yes, I am glad I now can determine the difference between a man and a woman. Hugely successful session.
If Hansen’s bill on that topic was your takeaway from the entire session coming you clearly were not paying attention.
Not a very big buy. Just a blip.
THE ADS ARE ON THE AIR NOW. It’s official. RHODEN is the preferred Trump guy, who will support Donald Trump to the fullest, stand with Donald, and follow the footsteps of the great Kristi Noem in continuing the amazing freedom fest we all live in.
It’s official. And expected. The huge play to bring MAGA unto himself solidifies his western support, and incumbent or not, a west-river term-filler incumbent is highly vulnerable to a widely known and trusted east river opponent.