What a difference turnout makes. Low turnout fuels further GOP division, and possible boost to jungle primary.

@SoDakCampaigns

Again, if you’re wondering why there was such a wild ride last night, here’s the difference that turnout makes:

In 2022, we had US Senate, Congress, and Governor at the top of the ticket for 32% turnout.

 

Last night, legislators were at the top of the ticket. And we had 17%, culminating in wildly disparate results in the lowest turnout primary election of the last decade thirty years!

*Update* I checked the turnout, and it was lowest as long as they’ve recorded it – in 3 decades. (I made a chart)

YEAR TURNOUT % OF REG.
1994 42.10%
1996 28.80%
1998 20.10%
2000 19.00%
2002 42.00%
2004 56.70%
2006 18.96%
2008 37.20%
2010 20.00%
2012 19.02%
2014 19.22%
2016 21.27%
2018 26.57%
2020 28.22%
2022 32.09%
2024 17.09%

And what does that give you? You have candidates who literally did absolutely nothing, such as Jeff Struwe in D7 House and Rick Weible in D8 Senate with 27% and 28% of the vote:

As I noted last night – the dead cat bounce was wildly inflated in the contest by the low turnout. About 10% higher, by my reckoning.

West River felt this effect the strongest in a near massacre of conservative Republican candidates being turned out by the far, far right.

Senator Erin Tobin was squeaked out by self-declared end-time army member Mykala Voita.  If Democrats had any smarts, they’d look to replace their multiple contest losing candidate on the ballot, Dan Andersson, with a known candidate, such as one of the Suttons, because they could take this. This went from being a safe seat for the GOP into one in play.  Alternatively, I wonder if Erin could run under the Libertarian banner for a rematch contest in the fall. Hmm..

*Bright spot here* – Lee Qualm doesn’t get another chance to bring his style of ethics back to Pierre, and instead D21 gets good guy Jim Halverson.  That was a win.

District 28 brought us some killing fields. 3 solid Republicans Susan Peterson for Senate, Ryan Maher for D28A House, and Travis Martin for D28B House all fell.  Belle Fourche is going to be represented by Travis Ismay?  That’s what you get when people don’t show up.

District 29 turned out both incumbents. Well respected Kirk Chaffee was turned out by Californian John Carley?  South Dakota Hall of Fame member Gary Cammack was turned out by Kathy Rice?

*Huge bright spot in D30* – Eventually people did get tired of the antics of goofball Senator Julie Frye-Mueller, as she got schooled by not-crazy newcomer Amber Hulse.

D31 remained stable, returning Randy Deibert to the Senate, and returning Fitzgerald & Odenbach to the house. But again – the dead cat bounce was crazy high. There’s no way in a normal environment that red-baiting goofball Kate Crowley Johnson should have gotten 41%. Same with Mark “election conspiracy” Mowry at 27%.  These are 18-20% candidates, tops in a normal environment.

D32 was another port in the storm, rejecting John Robert James, the BDubs guy, for Steve Duffy and Brook Kaufman.

However, the remaining districts were a slaughter house.

In D33, we lost David Johnson to Curt Voight in the Senate. In D34, Taffy Howard managed to barely squeak out a win against a solid Jason Green.  AND how on earth did we lose the always hard-working Becky Drury to Heather Baxter in D34 House? 

And the carnage wasn’t complete yet, as in D35, Michael Walsh fell to Greg Blanc for Senate.

What does all this mean for the GOP?

Statewide, both the House and the Senate offering to the public in the fall took a lurch to the right, and some seats that were safe going into the fall have turned into possibilities for the other team where there are Democrats available to contest them.  With the division in the party, this could be the where the SDGOP’s exclusive lock on offices starts to crumble.

Also moving towards the fall, I think you might watch for the top-two primary effort to find some boost to their efforts to move South Dakota to a jungle primary, as the shockingly low turnout has given credence to their arguments that the current system gives us the most extreme choices.  It makes it more challenging to argue against that point.

This fall will also be a much different election as well; instead of a low-turnout primary, it will be a high-turnout presidential contest with everyone voting… and coming off of the textbook example the exact reason why they are arguing for open primaries.

Add to that mix of the political environment that the surge in facebook populist candidates taking over the GOP has literally strangled the party for fundraising.  It’s hard to contest a ballot measure when no one is donating.

Pull up your folding chair for the fall elections. After this bloody primary battle, you may have a seat to watch a sea change in South Dakota politics this fall.

53 thoughts on “What a difference turnout makes. Low turnout fuels further GOP division, and possible boost to jungle primary.”

  1. JFM lost by 150 votes, I wouldn’t call that a schooling. Youngberg on the other hand, got schooled.

  2. Thank god the canvASSers lost on their tabulator bans, if they can’t win Haakon county where can they win?

  3. “some seats that were safe going into the fall have turned into possibilities for the other team where there are Democrats available to contest them”

    Most of these folks were democrat lite anyway.

  4. I’m puzzled by your point of “conservative Republican candidates being turned out by the far, far right.” David Johnson, Jason Green, Mike Walsh, etc. are Republicans but they certainly aren’t conservative, just take a look at scorecards, voting records and statements. This blogger seems eager to paint anyone who’s conservative as “far, far right” and routinely demeans those he disagrees with. He has become what he hates.

      1. agreed with sodakcampaigns. i would add that trump’s takeover of the gop has utterly changed all definitions of conservative and republican. trump inc. put the party’s now-comatose freedom and self determination in an iron lung, while trump uses its resources and platform for his own ends. if you find something conservative in that, then you missed the boat by not being born in castro’s cuba. you maga are anything but conservative.

  5. Congratulations to all the goof ball, whackadoodle, conspiracy theorists for working so hard to take our state back. This blog and all who support it will soon be a relic that we all look back on and wonder what in the hell were people thinking. Sweet dreams, RINOs.

    1. There is a always a silver lining and that is the real losers yesterday . . . the lobbyists. Lobbyists have run this state since term limits were enacted and now they are dealing with a new group of legislators so diametrically opposed to how they have operated that this could actually be a reworking of Pierre operates. Then again, the lobbyists could just shower everyone with gifts and contributions as the have in the past and ultimately come out on top again.

    2. Look at how the Conservatives with Common Sense took back the District Numbered 30, the insanest district of them all!

  7. when the term “conservative” comes to mean “idiot who doesn’t know that utilities are owned by private corporations for private gain, and believes vaccines give children extra chromosomes,” many of us will be happy to not have that term apply to us.

    They have gone beyond stupid. The chemtrails and morgellans have given them brain damage.

      2. Have you listened to or read an UNEDITED speech or interview of Trump? He melts down on a regular basis and talks in circles. Fox and the other favored networks hide and obfusacate regularly. Then of course, we have all of the criming.

    2. You should put your name on comments like this when claiming folks are getting bribed.

    4. So when the ethanol plants aren’t able to sell to California, Canada, and other markets because they can’t mitigate their CO2 output enough and shut down, what’s your plan to make up for their lost economic output?

        1. What? Ethanol isn’t used for electricity generation.

          And we’ve pretty much maxed out the hydroelectric generation. Wind and solar are great, but guess what, the wackjobs are trying to get those developments banned too, look at the proposed solar farm out by Mobrodge.

  8. 2025 session if all elected in the general is going to be one big S***show with the state being in national news again but not for good reasons.

  9. Over the years, here is a partial list of what the far right has promised:

    1. Meaningful Property Tax Relief
    2. Sales tax reduction to original 4%
    3. Eliminate sales tax on food
    4. Eliminate gambling in SD
    5. Elimination of all gun purchase registration
    6. Complete protection of our children from porn
    7. Handling the transgender issues
    8. Banning all Drag shows
    9. Solutions for all pipelines
    10. Vouchers for individual education spending
    11. Crack down on drugs and crime
    12. Make a decision on the Prison

    Winning elections is great, now let’s see some governing!

    1. Full blown Theocracy and Authoritarianism here we come. The religious fanatics will move us further towards a Christian version of Iran.

    2. 1. Meaningful Property Tax Relief ~ We would need a legislature that is willing to spend less. The less spending includes all of those “flavor of the month” issues the media has created (#6, #7, #8, #11, #12). You could just let these grievances go, it is just the new version of “rap music with swear words must be banned it is ruining our children’s lives” or “violent video games must be banned, it will make every child a murderer”. We all know how those notions played out.
      2. Sales tax reduction to original 4% ~ Who would spend less?
      3. Eliminate sales tax on food ~ Who would spend less?
      4. Eliminate gambling in SD~ Who would spend less from the legislature, also why? I get it isn’t a good thing to prey on addicts, but I don’t think more government is needed to stop it. Would you put gamblers in this new billion dollar penitentiary?
      5. Elimination of all gun purchase registration ~ Unless they purchase and use marijuana, right? (HB 1024)
      6. Complete protection of our children from porn ~ Why? There is no evidence that seeing a naked human harms children. Furthermore, this vague language is just an attempt to ban something you don’t like because it correlates with something else. We don’t need government to ban “skin”. On the trajectory to have our women in burkas.
      7. Handling the transgender issues ~ Government shouldn’t be “handling” this grievance of the month issue.
      8. Banning all Drag shows~ Government shouldn’t be “handling” this grievance of the month issue.
      9. Solutions for all pipelines ~ Didn’t realize pipelines needed a solution in SD. I think you are referring to the use of eminent domain. The pipelines can work fine now, but they would have to negotiate with landowners for access, as opposed to using government to force the sale at or below market value.
      10. Vouchers for individual education spending ~ The only way the state should accept this is a direct drop in tax burden then. However, we all know, they wont’ be giving money back, see how long they’ve been talking about items #1 – #4.
      11. Crack down on drugs and crime ~ *eye roll* crime has been trending down the last 4 years. If you gave up on the failed drug war, you would see a huge drop. Not really sure what you are after here, you want more control, there will always be people unwilling to conform to your ideal way of life.
      12. Make a decision on the Prison ~ We have double the prisoners of ND and NE, and are paying double the price for the prison than NE with the same amount of beds. This isn’t a “decision” it is a directive from those in control, we don’t get to decide, we will pay for this, and we will fill it up, and we will like it.

    3. Mein Führer, how will you ban drag shows held at a private establishment? Wouldn’t that be a gross overreach of centralized government infringing upon a private individuals expression of speech?

      And how will you make up for the lost revenues from banning gambling? And porn? Again pushing the government into the private life of an individual viewing another consenting adult is good and not an infringement how?

      Wouldn’t you be better off moving to Afghanistan to peruse your theocratic hell?

    4. To the issues raised by Mr. Partridge:

      1. Property Tax Relief. Sure, but keep this in mind. Property tax rates are ultimately decided at the county level. Yesterday’s election saw a 17% turnout. If you really want change, VOTE!

      2. Sales Tax Reduction. Always for lowing taxes, but let’s evaluate our budget first. Seems widely accepted on this page that the SOS office, for example, is drastically underfunded. Let’s identify how to reallocate funds, and then decide if cuts are an option.

      3. Eliminate Sales Tax on Food. Why? Because we don’t like taxes, I can accept that. Then I give you the same answer I gave on #2. Because people are hungry and it’s evil to tax food? No. Do you know how many free food giveaways there are around the state? Cities and rural communities alike? Between nonprofits, federal programs, public school summer lunch programs, etc. there’s almost no end to the free food right now.

      4. Eliminate gambling in SD. Maybe, except that legislature can’t really do that. A state ban would have no effect on gaming on reservations. As long as gambling is here, it makes sense the state would participate in regulation and collect some money from it.

      5. Eliminate all gun purchase registration. Well, this would be fun but I’m not wading into the gun debate in one comment.

      6. Complete protection of our children from porn. To the person who claims there’s no information that porn harms kids, really? That’s not a serious comment. There are plenty of studies. In this context, concerned citizens aren’t complaining about the kids who finds one magazine in the attic. The complaint is the free and immediate access to graphic digital material using the same visual techniques any screen uses, like video slot machines, to cultivate an addition in young people. There are direct links in the research to self harm in youth, revenge porn, cognitive decline and attention issues, etc. No information? Please.

      7. Transgender issues/drag shows/bathrooms. Remember this, “bad facts make bad law.” Before today’s gender wars, while people personally opposed certain things, the activities continued. New York was and is famous for its drag clubs and events. The gender wars aren’t what they are today b/c someone decided to make it an issue, this is a new issue because someone decided it would be a good idea to put on things like “kid friendly” drag shows. Men decided to shake their behind in front of children under 10. Med dressed in womens’ clothes, some provocatively, decided they needed to read stories to children in their classrooms. Do you know how adults used to handle men in women’s bathrooms? Someone would yell, “Get out of the bathroom!” And that would be it. Generally not a law enforcement issue. But today, adult males decided they needed to shower with young girls and blame the rest of the world for bigotry. Nobody wants the government involved with this, but the conservatives didn’t start the fight.

      9. Solutions for all pipelines. I don’t know what this means. If by solutions, you mean we oppose permanent homeless encampments on proposed construction sites, then yes.

      10. Vouchers for individual education spending. So this is school choice, a good idea. Again, I would love to think that we don’t need this debate. That public schools would focus on education, but the data shows that our kids are behind compared to many other states and other countries. Not to mention, going back to our gender wars, there’s a whole group of people who thing children in public school need social indoctrination more than the 3Rs.

      10. Crack down on drugs and crime. Good. Right now, that’s a border problem. States have implemented things like drug courts which require treatment. The feds lock people up for 10, 20, 30 years or more. If anyone wants to crack down on crime, especially drugs, secure the border. Want to crack down on violent crime? Stop sanctioning violent mobs by calling them “non violent protests.” And stop charging police officers when they’re the one’s attacked.

      12. Prison. Good. Build a prison.

      “now lets see them govern.” OK, so how’s the democrat machine working out for ya? Devastating inflation. Created the gender wars. Abandoned Afghanistan. Prop up a senile president. Defending a con in the White House. And when was the last time the Dems competed in every race in the state? In SD, the dems don’t even play ball, let alone play to win.

      1. 13. Questionable medical practices with vaccines, medications and procedures. It should be mandated that a legislator must be in the examining room with the patient and physician where final approval or denial is made by that legislator.

      2. Related to the item numbered 7, the Bonecracker Caucus will soon appear to be gone once the Dr. Duetsch, he of the overwhelming bathroom fixation, is gone. That does not mean the Bonecracker Caucus is really gone, for the Drs. Duetsch, Monroe, and Munster continue to work behind the scenes as advocates for the bathroom police.

        Never underestimate the Bonecracker Caucus.

  10. Pischke destroys the establishment.

    Took their faces and rubbed them in the pancake batter.
    He earned his syrup.

    1. I didn’t realize there were that many deadbeats dads and drug users in that district that turned out for Tom.

        1. Yes we are mad in District 25.
          Pischke is a fraud; the only reason he is in politics is he is trying to end court-ordered child support, thinks the children of single mothers should be supported by the state instead of their fathers. He’s that kind of “conservative”.”

          He’s been kicked out of the caucus, banned from the floor of the house, can’t get any legislation passed, and tried to have 27 of his fellow senators arrested.
          District 25 would be better served if the seat were left vacant.
          Hopefully, if he wins the general election the Senate will be so sick of him they will simply refuse to seat him.

            1. yes I forgot to add that Pischke’s ex-wife accused him of abuse & infidelity.
              What a stellar “conservative.”

              He also denies violating FEC regs by coordinating his campaigns with PACs but if you believe that, I got a bridge to sell ya.

        2. Tom’s not a good person. I’m disappointed he continues to win. People should be better than this.

          1. All who visit the District numbered 25 should eat in restaurants and mock the locals who enter. Point at them and whisper and laugh. Go into the bars, which we know Mr. Pischke frequents, and loudly deride how stupid the voters are in the town. It would be great fun, if that town was any fun that is probably the fun to be had. It is blowing of the mind that these people do not realize what a mockery they are to the rest of the state. And grudznick says this from the District numbered 30, the insanest of them all, where Ms. Mueller and her sister wallow.

            1. grudz,
              The one thing about Julie Frye Mueller was that by sitting next to Tom Pischke, she made him look intelligent by comparison.

  11. How many incumbents that were defeated supported the CO2 pipeline? An honest question.

  12. “… the shockingly low turnout has given credence to their arguments that the current system gives us the most extreme choices. It makes it more challenging to argue against that point.”

    And it’s certainly not unique to South Dakota politics. Look at Tweedledum and Tweedlecon, who supposedly represent the best offerings either major party can give us for POTUS. While I have my doubts that a jungle primary would be a silver bullet, it might just be a step in the right direction away from the “lesser-of-two-evils” politics that has led us here.

    1. Choo-choo!! All abord the crazy train! This next legislative session is gonna be LIT.

      1. The sanerest survivors could do something: they can change the rules so that all resolutions are determined by voice votes with no record of how any member voted.

        Resolutions are meaningless measures which serve no purpose other than garbage rankings on scorecards. They are used as weapons and nothing else.

        Instead of bringing resolutions to the floors of the house and senate, they should just bring clubs and bats.

  14. Glad to see JFM gone but now Daffy Duck is back and new guy Carly are in, very tired of Carly trying to tell us that he was born here or as he then says, well same as, when he was born in Colorado and raised in California. Neither of those places are “same as” here in West River South Dakota.

  15. Well, it is official. Dell Rapids and the other people of District 25 are officially beyond saving. Youngberg campaigned hard and got destroyed. I can no longer attribute 25’s support of Tom Pischke as misinformed. They are bad people, no question. I am ashamed that they are part of my beloved South Dakota, and wish they would succeed into Minnesota. People who support a chronic gambler, wife-beater, and deadbeat dad time and time again do not deserve to participate in civil society.

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