Again, if you’re wondering why there was such a wild ride last night, here’s the difference that turnout makes:

In 2022, we had US Senate, Congress, and Governor at the top of the ticket for 32% turnout.

Last night, legislators were at the top of the ticket. And we had 17%, culminating in wildly disparate results in the lowest turnout primary election of the last decade thirty years!
*Update* I checked the turnout, and it was lowest as long as they’ve recorded it – in 3 decades. (I made a chart)
| YEAR |
TURNOUT % OF REG. |
| 1994 |
42.10% |
| 1996 |
28.80% |
| 1998 |
20.10% |
| 2000 |
19.00% |
| 2002 |
42.00% |
| 2004 |
56.70% |
| 2006 |
18.96% |
| 2008 |
37.20% |
| 2010 |
20.00% |
| 2012 |
19.02% |
| 2014 |
19.22% |
| 2016 |
21.27% |
| 2018 |
26.57% |
| 2020 |
28.22% |
| 2022 |
32.09% |
| 2024 |
17.09% |
And what does that give you? You have candidates who literally did absolutely nothing, such as Jeff Struwe in D7 House and Rick Weible in D8 Senate with 27% and 28% of the vote:

As I noted last night – the dead cat bounce was wildly inflated in the contest by the low turnout. About 10% higher, by my reckoning.
West River felt this effect the strongest in a near massacre of conservative Republican candidates being turned out by the far, far right.
Senator Erin Tobin was squeaked out by self-declared end-time army member Mykala Voita. If Democrats had any smarts, they’d look to replace their multiple contest losing candidate on the ballot, Dan Andersson, with a known candidate, such as one of the Suttons, because they could take this. This went from being a safe seat for the GOP into one in play. Alternatively, I wonder if Erin could run under the Libertarian banner for a rematch contest in the fall. Hmm..
*Bright spot here* – Lee Qualm doesn’t get another chance to bring his style of ethics back to Pierre, and instead D21 gets good guy Jim Halverson. That was a win.
District 28 brought us some killing fields. 3 solid Republicans Susan Peterson for Senate, Ryan Maher for D28A House, and Travis Martin for D28B House all fell. Belle Fourche is going to be represented by Travis Ismay? That’s what you get when people don’t show up.
District 29 turned out both incumbents. Well respected Kirk Chaffee was turned out by Californian John Carley? South Dakota Hall of Fame member Gary Cammack was turned out by Kathy Rice?
*Huge bright spot in D30* – Eventually people did get tired of the antics of goofball Senator Julie Frye-Mueller, as she got schooled by not-crazy newcomer Amber Hulse.
D31 remained stable, returning Randy Deibert to the Senate, and returning Fitzgerald & Odenbach to the house. But again – the dead cat bounce was crazy high. There’s no way in a normal environment that red-baiting goofball Kate Crowley Johnson should have gotten 41%. Same with Mark “election conspiracy” Mowry at 27%. These are 18-20% candidates, tops in a normal environment.
D32 was another port in the storm, rejecting John Robert James, the BDubs guy, for Steve Duffy and Brook Kaufman.
However, the remaining districts were a slaughter house.
In D33, we lost David Johnson to Curt Voight in the Senate. In D34, Taffy Howard managed to barely squeak out a win against a solid Jason Green. AND how on earth did we lose the always hard-working Becky Drury to Heather Baxter in D34 House?
And the carnage wasn’t complete yet, as in D35, Michael Walsh fell to Greg Blanc for Senate.
What does all this mean for the GOP?
Statewide, both the House and the Senate offering to the public in the fall took a lurch to the right, and some seats that were safe going into the fall have turned into possibilities for the other team where there are Democrats available to contest them. With the division in the party, this could be the where the SDGOP’s exclusive lock on offices starts to crumble.
Also moving towards the fall, I think you might watch for the top-two primary effort to find some boost to their efforts to move South Dakota to a jungle primary, as the shockingly low turnout has given credence to their arguments that the current system gives us the most extreme choices. It makes it more challenging to argue against that point.
This fall will also be a much different election as well; instead of a low-turnout primary, it will be a high-turnout presidential contest with everyone voting… and coming off of the textbook example the exact reason why they are arguing for open primaries.
Add to that mix of the political environment that the surge in facebook populist candidates taking over the GOP has literally strangled the party for fundraising. It’s hard to contest a ballot measure when no one is donating.
Pull up your folding chair for the fall elections. After this bloody primary battle, you may have a seat to watch a sea change in South Dakota politics this fall.