Wow. I heard a big one today.
Word on the street is that Troy Heinert is taking a job, possibly out of state, and will NOT be taking on Kristi Noem for Governor.
Leaving state Democrats really nobody. And they have no one to blame for the lack of candidates besides themselves.
For the past couple of decades, Democrats have labored under the mistaken belief that ballot measures could drive energy and interest towards their party apparatus and diverted significant energy towards those ends. Unfortunately, they lost that bet, and their party has withered on the vine (while former candidate Rick Weiland has cashed in on it.)
Their miscalculation in betting on ballot measures is that energy actually comes from the top of the ticket to turn out voters. It’s why we have higher turnouts in presidential years.
The problem is that Democrats are finding that a lack of attention to the business of being a political party has seen their down-ticket success eroded to the current historic low point.
And it’s self-perpetuating. Fewer elected officials at the local or legislative level means fewer possibilities for competent statewide candidates. And fewer people willing to put themselves up to run as a Democrat in the first place, because frankly, no one wants to carry the ball as part of the losing team.
In 2022, Democrats wondering why thinks look so bad need to take a look at the hot mess they’ve created for themselves.
After a major financial crash which shut their doors for a time, the State Democrat Party is as dependent on cash from their national party to fund their daily operation just to get through the day. AND the State Democrat Party remains on shaky financial ground after rebuilding, on top of which they find themselves owing a $40K fine to the Federal Elections Commission as a result of their mishandling of money.
Only holding 11 seats between the House and the Senate, with two incumbents ineligible to run again due to term limits, Democrats are challenged to not just hold their own, but also have to recruit candidates for over 90% of state legislative races.
And with 30 days to go until petitions begin circulating, they literally have no one jumping forward to run as candidates at the statewide level, and they’ve ran the clock down to the last few seconds.
No matter how futile it ends up being, it seems that there are always candidates who think they can escape conventional wisdom and run a competitive statewide challenger campaign by starting in February of election year. Nevermind the fact that the incumbents have been active in pulling resources – both financial and organizational – for months.
Senator John Thune (at around $15M), Governor Kristi Noem (about $6.5M) and Congressman Dusty Johnson (about 1.5M) have built up funds and organization to go towards the ends of running a competent campaign in this cycle.
At the same time Democrats have literally no idea who they can talk into it.
With Heinert out, no one stepping forward to run in the general election against Congressman Dusty Johnson, and only a Democrat party outsider whose stated party affiliation is ‘a lifelong Independent’ until he wanted to run for office expressing interest in the US Senate contest, you cannot describe Democrat’s electoral chances as anything but ‘bleak’ in the 2022 election cycle.
And those are the races at the top of the ticket. Not to mention they lack anyone talking about the mid-ticket statewide constitutional offices. Which we can accurately predict will be the usual “whoever-we-can-talk-into-it-at-convention” candidates that Democrats tend to offer.
Already, it looks as if 2022 is not looking good for the blue team.
As the clock continues to run down, we’ll continue to watch to see if all is as bad as it seems.