Top Political Stories of 2018: #3 – Kristi Noem wins GOP Primary in race for Governor
The 2018 Republican Primary was as hard a fought political race as the state has ever seen, rivaling the harsh donnybrooks of yesteryear, such as the 1986 Abdnor/Janklow US Senate contest or the 2002 GOP Gubernatorial primary fight between Mark Barnett & Steve Kirby.
“Politics ain’t beanbag” is a saying dating back to 1895 when a writer used it as a quote from his fictional character commenting on the roughness of politics, in that bean-bags don’t hurt when they are thrown at people. The 2018 race definitely wasn’t not beanbag, and as we found, can get a bit tough at times.
The year started with 4 candidates in the primary, only two of whom – Kristi Noem and Marty Jackley – were viewed as serious candidates. Also running but failing to collect enough signatures to appear on the ballot were political outliers Lora Hubbel and Terry LaFleur.
Both Jackley and Noem were popular and well known to the GOP at large, Marty having served as Attorney General for many years, and Kristi Noem as the State’s Congresswoman. Both could (and did) raise tremendous amounts of money and garner supporters. But here’s where the differences between the candidates emerged a bit.
Jackley was a veteran of two lightly contested elections for constitutional office. Kristi had ran for office every two of the previous eight years, after winning the Congressional office from Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. Noem’s first race was a bruising affair, and she had other races that were not to be taken for granted.
Because of Noem’s races, Jackley had to spend much of his efforts making up name ID, and while Kristi started out ahead, Jackley’s efforts predictably tightened up the race. The 2018 GOP Primary for Governor at times was very, very hard fought and could get a bit harsh, as both candidates sparred and dropped negative ads on each other.
And as the candidates were neck and neck approaching the final week of the election, the Noem campaign dropped an atomic weapon with a blitz of advertisements coinciding with former DCI Employee Laura Kaiser making media appearances regarding a $1.2 Million lawsuit she won against the state in December of 2017 in which she claimed discrimination and retaliation.
In the charged national environment of “Me Too” sexual harassment allegations which had captured the nation’s attention starting in late 2017, it was definitely not beanbag. It was more like dropping a nuclear weapon in the race. As a consequence, Jackley’s polling numbers – which had been even with Noem’s up until that point – utterly collapsed.
On election night, Noem came out of the Republican Primary election defeating Jackley 57% to 43%, closing the chapter on the opening battle in the race for Governor. And Noem began the work to finish the second part of the job – winning the fall election.
Marty had a better in-state presence but he made too many mistakes as AG…the Kaiser thig was a killer and he never got ahead of it and he had to know it was coming…..a better ground game but a harder product to sell for Jackley in the end.
I did not like all the negative ads by Noem but they were effective.
I also think Jackley’s ads were a very weak point in his campaign. They looked nice (Noem’s looked exceptional) but the messaging behind them was absolutely empty.
We would be looking at the inauguration of Billie Sutton as governor if Jackley had won the primary. All of his missteps as AG would have been magnified during the campaign by an energized Democrat Party and no rescue parties from the national GOP would have arrived.
I wouldn’t agree with that. Jackley had a good record and a good campaign. I think Sutton’s campaign showed us about as high as the Democrats can ever hope to achieve in this state right now, and they lose. I thought his ads could’ve been better at times, but not much better, really. What it comes down to in my mind is that we had two good candidates running for the same office, and there can only be one winner. Overall, Jackley had good favorability numbers and I wish him well. Frankly, I hope he’s not done with politics.
Maybe there’s a place for him still in politics but the fact that it took him so long to endorse Noem (yes, even despite the negative BUT TRUE ads) tells me he wasn’t the guy for the job.
Sadly, I agree. The D party poured alot of money into Sutton and again, sadly, many times with little known, money wins elections. And Noem’s ads against Jackley just gave Sutton easy ammunition for the general.
“As a consequence, Jackley’s polling numbers – which had been even with Noem’s up until that point – utterly collapsed.”
Just curious, I never saw much for polling in this race. Where could I find a run down of the numbers?
https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/29/governors-race-argus-leader-kelo-poll-south-dakota-governor-marty-jackley-kristi-noem/649292002/ for one.
There were also others. Internally, Jackley’s people say they were up, but I wasn’t privy to those numbers.
Jackley never had a chance against Noem. He messed up too many times. Noem is also more approachable.
Personally I was disturbed by his choice of campaign staff; if these are the people he hired for his campaign, whom would he bring along as governor?
While such insider considerations didn’t influence enough votes in the primary to make a difference, I know it influenced a few.
like who and why?
Noem’s campaign was horribly constructed from the outset. She had no ground game to speak of during the primary. Her campaign manager was working part time from out of state. The bulk of her staff were splitting duties between her congressional office and the campaign. She had one full timer who got frustrated and quit midway through the primary.
Meanwhile, Jackley had a full time campaign manager as well as full time staff both east and west of the river. It’s no winder Jackley closed the distance in the polls. Kristi ran the highly negative ads at the end of the race because she had no other choice; without a solid ground game she had to rely on ads. Lucky for her, Jackley had an easily exploitable weakness that made for great mudslinging.